This week’s fresh slate of series features nine divisional showdowns and a couple top starting pitcher matchups. We’ll pass on the Webb/Pivetta pairing in San Diego but dive into a good one in Philadelphia for our featured handicap. It’s a great place to start off the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-29-2025 before firing up a solo shot as the Arizona Diamondbacks head to Flushing for a southpaw battle. BOL!
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (PHI -190, 8)
M Gore (L) vs. Z Wheeler (R)
Let’s get this out of the way – I don’t have any money on this game and may not get there at all before I wrap things up in a little bit. What intrigued me to stage this as today’s feature is the matchup between two-time Cy Young Award runner-up Zack Wheeler and fellow ace MacKenzie Gore. The Nationals’ left-hander has incredible production to date starting with a 3.34 ERA and even more impressive 2.01 FIP/2.21 xFIP. His insane 5.89 K/BB ratio has a lot to do with that. The stuff has been borderline elite and command more impressive than in last year’s eye-catching performance. Just as important, Gore is going deeper into games which limits opponents’ exposure to Washington’s unreliable bullpen.
Wheeler’s production almost goes without saying anymore. Three of his last four seasons have generated 5+ WAR; the 2022 campaign was limited to 4.2 WAR due to missing six starts. A filthy six-pitch arsenal predicated on insane command is netting him a 6.25 K/BB ratio similar to Gore. What more can you say about Wheeler? The biggest differentiator between the two is MacKenzie’s 45.6% hard hit rate paired up with plenty of fly balls. To MacKenzie’s credit, he has not yet been punished by the long ball. Note that these starters faced off on Opening Day, combining for a single run, 3 hits, and 21 strikeouts. Both have been a bit more accommodating to opposing hitters since then, though still highly effective.
All About the Tradeoffs
It’s hard for me to justify paying the big price on the Phillies with MacKenzie Gore holding his own against a team arguably in a small funk at the plate. The toughest pill for Washington to swallow is transitioning from an elite Zack Wheeler to a bullpen anchored by strong southpaws Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm. So the Nats go from get whatever you can against Wheeler to potentially ending the game exposed to their weak side. Only outfielders James Wood, Jacob Young, and Alex Call have done anything of note against left-handers this season. Granted, those are the guys you want at the plate when it matters. This dynamic young core has been money on multiple occasions when the club needs them most this season.
There’s little doubt that the Phillies roster has more beef from top to bottom. I don’t read a ton into their 9-4 home record being the exact opposite of the Nats’ 4-9 road mark. The Phils are suffering from a momentary power outage, slugging just .303 over the past 7 days and .376 in the last 14. It comes down to Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and platoon infielder Edmundo Sosa dialing up their prowess against lefties. Tonight’s is a tough one though.
My first 5 and full game ranges are wide, making it tough to pin down the “right side”. The dog is barking a bit louder on the first 5 inning line given Philadelphia’s ability to throw nasty southpaws at the Nats. Are they more accommodating than a tough Zack Wheeler though? That’s the hurdle keeping my money on the sidelines in this one.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ NEW YORK METS (NYM -145, 8.5)
E Rodriguez (L) vs. D Peterson (L)
Despite shaky bullpen performances and a general lack of output from Juan Soto, the New York Mets have jumped out to a 4.5-game lead in the NL East. A 4-game series split in Washington D.C. featured two losses out of the bullpen while Soto slashed .400/.471/.533 with a pair of doubles. New York’s trailing 7-day offensive production has been quite strong (.300/.378/.442, .353 BABIP) with Arizona’s (.223/.315/.455, .224 BABIP) being more in line with their full season numbers. The BABIP discrepancy between the two lineups has persisted for a couple weeks now. Will this begin to abruptly even out in this series?
Strengths and Weaknesses
Never mind that the Mets are 12-1 at home in the first month of the season. It is something, though not much in the way of being predictive. To be bluntly obvious about tonight’s scenario, it all comes down to who can hit the opposing overachieving left-hander more effectively than the other. What was Arizona’s strong suit in 2024 has turned on them so far in 2025. Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo and elite outfielder Corbin Carroll are doing their part while Ketel Marte is on the IL. The rest of the squad – including the red hot Eugenio Suarez and his reverse handedness splits to date – is grinding its gears against lefties.
There is a sample size discrepancy between the plate appearance numbers for Arizona (274) and New York (206). The Mets disposed of the Nats’ Mitchell Parker (5.0 IP, 7H, 6ER) and Philadelphia’s Christopher Sanchez (2.0 IP, 4 H, 2ER) in recent games going back to last Tuesday though. Granted, Parker’s effectiveness is debatable but Sanchez is a top tier lefty starter. Arizona’s Eduardo Rodriguez slots somewhere in the middle of those two (4.40 ERA, 2.79 FIP/2.84 xFIP) as he deals with the tug-of-war between his .342 BABIP and career-high 27.6% strikeout rate. While his stuff hasn’t been extraordinary, the 32-year-old is exhibiting pinpoint command.
David Peterson has not been immune to a high BABIP either (.354), leading to a 3.29 ERA and 3.06 FIP/2.88 xFIP. Three straight games with just a single walk speaks to his improving command although opponents have still been able to grind out multiple runs in each. With Peterson’s BABIP rising, does this Diamondbacks lineup have tangible improvement on deck tonight? I cannot count it out – especially with my expectations for both offenses to produce well against lefties this season.
WAGER: Mets -1 +100
Both bullpens have plenty of arms to pick up 3-4 innings even in high-leverage situations. The Mets can stand to do without Stanek for another day, while the only potential key absence for the D-backs is closer Justin Martinez. Emphasis on the word potential. A key reservation for an Arizona comeback lies with New York being limited to a single left-handed reliever, Danny Young. Searching for a team that can wreak havoc in the late innings? Look no further than Arizona. And neither bullpen is in great form, to be fair. I’m not a huge advocate for paying up to back favorites, which leads me to a conservative -1 run line position on the Mets at even money. My floor price for them is near the market’s but the upper range makes them playable.
2025 Featured Handicap Results
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