Previous Week Plays – 4-4
Season Record – 20-22
Week 11 Recap:
It looked as though we’d get to 5-3 and back to .500 on the season, but the 49ers collapse crushed our teaser bet with the Texans, and put us at 4-4 for the weekend. We won with both bets on the Lions as those were never in danger, and we won with the Rams, although they almost let it slip away at the end. We didn’t hit the teaser as mentioned, but we did hit the spread with the Texans, against the clinically dead Cowboys. More to come on them. Our bad loss was taking the Cleveland Browns. Although they were in the game, the missed field goals doomed them, before the defense essentially quit and made some business decisions in trying to tackle Taysom Hill. We also lost the under on the Bills and Chiefs game, as the Bills became the first team in forever to put up 28 on the Chiefs. And lost both 49ers bets with their team total and the teaser bet. Certainly could have been better, but it is what it is.
Week 12 Picks:
A second straight week with some chalk and square stuff, but it’s just so hard to justify putting real money on teams like the Browns, Panthers, etc. In those two specific games, we’ve got the dogs covering, but there’s just no way we can lock those in. We’re instead going back to some teams that are playing good football heading into Thanksgiving. Despite a continued horrific teaser record on the season, we’re gluttons for punishment as we’re firing up yet another one in the early games on Sunday. A pretty straightforward week as its just three games against the spread backing public favorites (yikes), and the one teaser bet. To be fair, we’re not so much backing road favorites as we are fading really bad football teams in a couple of these matchups. The Rams would be the exception to that. Let’s get some winners before Turkey Day!
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
vs. 
Dallas Cowboys (3-7) vs. Washington Commanders (7-4)
Sunday November 24th
1:00pm
Northwest Stadium – Landover, MD
Washington Commanders -10 (-115)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
NFC East rivals headed in different directions meet up in Washington as the Dallas Cowboys continue to search for answers against the Commanders. These records may be swapped from where we thought they may be at the beginning of the season, but it turns out one team was underestimated, while the other was overvalued. Can Mike McCarthy find a way to get the Cowboys back in the win column against his former coaching partner Dan Quinn?
Where do the Cowboys go for here on the offensive side of the ball? They can’t block or run the football, and outside of CeeDee Lamb, there is no one to throw the ball to consistently. Even tight end Jake Ferguson is now out with a concussion. Meanwhile, the Commanders defense continues to improve as the season goes on. Knowing Dallas won’t be able to run the football, the Commanders should be able to take advantage of what used to be the strength of this Cowboy offense, which is now a weak offensive line. Cooper Rush settled in a little better a week ago, but he’s a pretty big downgrade from Dak Prescott, and really can only be effective if everything around him is going well. We know that won’t be the case, so Washington should be able to hold Dallas down on the scoreboard. We may see some packages for Trey Lance, or even a relief appearance depending on how this one goes. At this point, the biggest weapon for Dallas on offense is kicker Brandon Aubrey. Can a few 60+ yard field goals give them a chance to win?
Jayden Daniels has become a little more of a traditional player since his injury a few weeks ago. That hasn’t made him a bad player at all, just not nearly as dynamic as when he was running around like a backyard football player. Any chance Dallas has of pulling an upset in this game is going to come down to a couple of key things. First, they have to stop the running game of the Commanders. That’s easier said than done for a unit that has been bad against the run all season. Brian Robinson, Jr. should be healthy again after a week back in the lineup, and Austin Ekeler is taking advantage of the opportunities he’s getting. If the Cowboys can slow the running game down, maybe, just maybe they can force some turnovers from Daniels. When you’re a double-digit underdog, you almost have to have a substantial win in the turnover battle to have a chance. The Cowboys pass rush is obviously better with Micah Parsons back in the lineup, so perhaps he can make Daniels speed up and maybe make some throwing mistakes? The Cowboys secondary has also not been great, but if there is one thing they’ve proven they can do pretty well in recent years, it’s taking away the football.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NFC opponents
– The Commanders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
We’re officially on the fade the Cowboys train until it completely runs out of gas. Yes, this is a division game, but how do the Cowboys realistically score in this one? Couple that with a bottom-tier defense, and you could argue this spread should be closer to 14 points. With such an inept offense, the threat of a backdoor cover also goes down substantially. One other thing you can absolutely argue is the Cowboys are presently the worst team in the league. Chances are Carolina still owns that distinction, but if Dallas isn’t 32nd, they are probably 31st or 30th. Mike McCarthy’s lame duck coaching run to end the season continues here as Washington pushes towards their surprising playoff entry.
BetCrushers Take: Washington Commanders -10
Commanders 26, Cowboys 13
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
Denver Broncos (6-5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
Sunday November 24th
4:05pm
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Denver Broncos -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
How’s that old song go, the one about “the times they are a changing?” Welcome to a an unexpected AFC West, where the Denver Broncos are suddenly pushing for the playoffs with a rookie quarterback, while the Las Vegas Raiders are closer to the top overall pick than a playoff berth.
The Denver Broncos offense is flying under the radar just a bit, but could we be witnessing the Sean Payton resurgence behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix? The youngster is starting to really look comfortable as he adapts to the NFL speed, and he is setup for another good day against the Raiders. Denver has one task on offense in this game, and it’s basically what every team has when they play Las Vegas, which is not to let Maxx Crosby wreck the game. Payton likes to get creative and aggressive, but that really isn’t necessary against this Raider defense. Run the ball with whichever running back is the flavor of the week, and continue to use the rapport Nix has with Courtland Sutton and his young receivers to their advantage. Much like we mentioned Dallas can only win by getting a bunch of turnovers, the Broncos should only lose this game if they give the football away.
On the Las Vegas side of the ball, the team continues to battle, but they’re simply a little undermanned. Gardner Minshew is fighting hard, but the offensive line is not doing him any favors, and without Davante Adams, teams are able to key in on Jakobi Meyers. The Broncos secondary should be able to take away Meyers and the receivers, but the one area where Vegas can take advantage is with tight end Brock Bowers. Not only is Bowers proving to be one of the top rookies in the league, he’ll be facing a Denver unit that struggles a bit against opposing tight ends. As good as Bowers has been, the Raiders will need to find some offense somewhere else though, and that’s hard to see where it will be coming from. Can Alexander Mattison and the running backs power their way through the Denver defense? Could special teams play a big factor in this game?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. the Broncos
If there is one thing the Raiders have going for them this weekend that would be the fact they have dominated Denver in recent years. Of course a lot of teams have dominated the Broncos sans Peyton Manning at the quarterback position. At the beginning of the season, we had the Raiders ranked quite a bit higher on offense and defense compared to the Broncos. As Chris Berman used to say, that’s why they play the game. Denver has morphed into one of the top defenses in the league, and their offense just seems to get better and better as Payton and Nix learn from each other. There will probably be a lot of orange in the stands at Allegiant Stadium for this game, and the road team should be able to pull away enough to get more than a one score cover.
BetCrushers Take: Denver Broncos -5.5
Broncos 28, Raiders 20
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
vs. 
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (5-5)
Sunday November 24th
8:20pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
In one of the most important and potentially entertaining games of the weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles head to the west coast to take on the surging Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. The Eagles took a few weeks to figure out their identity, but they’re cruising now, while the Rams simply needed to get their star weapons back to make a playoff push. Both teams are considered good squads, yet both might be undervalued heading into this contest.
For all the of the Jalen Hurts up and down talks of the past couple of years, one this is perfectly clear with the QB. If you surround him with enough, he can do enough. He’s clearly working with a stacked roster, and that starts with the highly recognized offensive line in front of him. The Rams defense has also been improving, and a lot of that starts with their young trio of pass rushers who have been wreaking havoc on quarterbacks across the league. The future is bright for those edge rushers, but this game is one where the Eagles exterior should be able to hold their own. Without that pass rush, the secondary for LA could get exposed a bit compared to what we’ve seen the last few weeks of the season. This unit has looked pretty solid and improved, however if they’re asked to cover longer than they have been, it could be a problem. Of course it doesn’t help that they have to matchup with the A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith combo, and a now healthy Dallas Goedert at tight end. We haven’t even mentioned Saquon Barkley yet, and although the Rams are solid against the run, they’re not elite. That means they’ll be left with a decision most defenses are against Philly, which is bring some extra run support, or let Barkley rip of consistent 6 and 8 yard runs.
The Rams should find some success when they have the ball as well, as their trio of Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are as good as you’ll see in the league. The big difference between the offense of these teams is clearly the offensive line. The Rams line has been better since getting healthy, but they’re not as dominant as the Eagles, particularly in pass protection. Fortunately for LA, Matthew Stafford can sling it around even in less than ideal situations. The most interesting matchups are going to be between Kupp and Nacua against the youngsters in the Eagles secondary. Rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell has been a shutdown force over the last six weeks, but this will be a big test for him. If we’re being honest, this is some strength on strength, and what makes the league product good. The Rams offense has had trouble at times in the red zone. This is not a game where they can afford to kick field goals. To beat the Eagles, they’re probably going to need to score in the high 20’s. Can they do that against a defense that’s starting to really come together with a new defensive coordinator?
Key Stats and Trends
– The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. the Rams
– The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. NFC East opponents
If you couldn’t tell, we’re really looking forward to this game for a lot of reasons. Ultimately, we’re going to get to see some young talent and some veteran talent on display on a game that means a lot in the standings. As much as we hate going against the Rams, as a team that is clearly undervalued, we’re going to try to ride the Eagles wagon a little bit longer. Philly is arguably the top team in the league, yet they’re often not even in the top five of a lot of power rankings. On the fast track of SoFi, we’re expecting to see some points on the scoreboard. Without much of a homefield advantage, we’ll play the number here and go with the Eagles, whether it’s square or not.
BetCrushers Take: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Eagles 29, Rams 24
Teaser Bet
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
vs.
and 
vs. 
Detroit Lions (9-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
Sunday November 24th
1:00pm
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Detroit Lions -7 (-110)
Over/Under 50 (-110)
Tennessee Titans (2-8) vs. Houston Texans (7-4)
Sunday November 24th
1:00pm
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Houston Texans -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 41 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Detroit Lions -1 and Houston Texans -1.5
The Lions and the Texans take to the road to face off against AFC South opponents when Detroit faces the Colts and Houston meets the Titans. The road teams are jockeying for playoff seeding, while the Colts need a win to keep any chance of the playoffs in focus. The Titans are doing the cliched playing for pride at this point, but would undoubtedly love to spoil some fun for Houston.
Any non-biased observer would have to rank the Lions at the top of the pecking order at this stage of the season. That doesn’t guarantee them anything at this point, but it does make for a tough challenge for the Colts. Indianapolis has fought hard no matter who is playing quarterback and have been in most of their games this season, but it’s going to be a tough ask to slow down the Lions offense Sunday. The physical play of the offensive line for Detroit and their tandem of running backs have really yet to be stopped this season. The Colts have shown the ability to be fairly stout against the run, but they’ve also been gashed at times as well. David Montgomery is always a threat, but this could also be a Jahmyr Gibbs home run kind of game. The player to actually watch in this game is wideout Jameson Williams, as Indy has given up big plays to outside wideouts as much as any team this season. Can they slow down the run and force quarterback Jared Goff into mistakes like Houston did a couple of weeks ago? On the other side of the ball, Anthony Richardson really did some nice things throwing the ball in his return as the starter. The Lions defense has been good, not great this year, and particularly without Aidan Hutchinson in the lineup. One thing they have been great with is making splash plays, which is an area they’ll try to exploit against a young player like Richardson. Unfortunately for Indy, the burden to move the football may fall to Richardson, as the Lions are pretty tough against the run. With Jonathan Taylor potentially bottled up, Richardson is going to have to move the chains, either with his arm or his legs.
We mentioned the mistakes the Houston Texans forced the Lions into a couple of weeks back, and that’s not great news if you’re rooting for the Titans in this game. To say Will Levis has struggled taking care of the football would be an understatement, and it’s tough to imagine he’ll be able to do this against Houston. Danielle Hunter is generating massive pressure off the edge of late, which means Levis will need to be decisive and accurate with the football. Even if he is, the Titans likely don’t have enough firepower to consistently win against the secondary of the Texans. Tennessee’s best opportunity in this game is to try to run Tony Pollard as much as they possibly can and hope he can break some nice runs along the way. Flipping it around to the Houston offense, they’re still trying to find themselves, but they have some reasons for optimism. They do look more cohesive with Nico Collins back in the lineup, and Joe Mixon is running as well as any back in the league. Mixon has a tough matchup against a pretty good rush defense of the Titans, but Collins and Tank Dell have great chances to perform. A combination of injuries and poor play have really derailed the Titans secondary so we could see the big return for Collins in this matchup. One thing to really keep an eye on is the interior of the Titans, which can be good with Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat. The Texans continue to have trouble in the interior of their line, making this one of the attacking points for Tennessee.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
– The Lions are 8-0 straight up in their last 8 games
– The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Titans are 1-5 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Titans
– The Texans are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 home games
If we simply hadn’t made any teaser bets this year we’d be profiting just fine for the season. Yet, here we are again trying to beat the teaser system once more with a pair of road teams no less. The Lions we debated playing outright against the spread, but opted for just getting the win as it could be a bit of a look ahead spot for them. The Texans and Titans game actually could be pretty tight, but the Texans have too much of an overall advantage to get upset. Let’s see if the teasers can be kind to us in week twelve.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Lions -1 and Texans -1.5
Lions 30, Colts 20 / Texans 22, Titans 17
