Alright boys and girls, March 28th is so close you can taste it. And that means one thing – okay, maybe more than just one – it’s time for a rundown of 2024 Opening Day handicapping. Then we’ll kick off the 6th Annual MLB Morning Breakdown series with a featured handicap or two for Friday’s slate to get the grind fully underway. Thursday’s full rack of action looks like it could be spared by Mother Nature outside of New York. For our new readers: each game breakdown has a graphic gauging relative strength of four core components coming into the regular season with adjustments and commentary in the narrative below them. Looking for more commentary on our team outlooks? Links to each team preview are in the headers for each game if you need them. BOL this season and enjoy!
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ NEW YORK METS – 1:10 ET (-110, 7.5)
F Peralta (R) vs. J Quintana (L)
The drizzly outlook for New York and the greater Mid-Atlantic region is starting to fade into a non-issue. But it is something to keep an eye on leading up to Thursday afternoon. Neither starting pitcher has been consistently good this spring, especially with Jose Quintana getting roughed up for 9 ER in his final two starts. Milwaukee’s lineup strength against lefty pitchers helps tighten the gap with the Mets’ overall lineup advantage. Other than newcomer Rhys Hoskins, the Crew’s key hitters have acclimated well in camp – including 20-year-old phenom Jackson Chourio (.323/.373/.403).
Freddy Peralta has given up quite a few hits and home runs in his four Spring Training starts, presenting the Mets with a good opportunity to flex their muscle against a right-handed pitcher. Both Peralta and Quintana have inflated ERAs compared to xFIPs this spring, FWIW. Tough to gauge direction from that disparity given the proverbial small sample situation. A good indicator of Freddy’s stuff coming into Opening Day is a 15.1% swinging strike rate right in line with his career profile. Home runs should be more constrained given weather conditions and venue – helping hands for starting out on the right track. Plus he gets a Mets offense whose key hitters Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte have yet to fully find their groove as opposed to slugger Pete Alonso.
WAGER: Brewers First 5 Innings -118 (FD)
Drizzle might sideline my first position of the 2024 season, but I have a healthy premium on Milwaukee for the first 5 innings that weakens after Peralta leaves the game. The New York offense’s strength is mitigated by slow spring ramp-ups in spring. On the other hand, Quintana presents vulnerability to what could be a more ready Brewers offense. The full game -110 is fine too but has less meat on the bone for my blood. Especially considering how these bullpens are close to parity with Milwaukee’s phenomenal closer Devin Williams on the IL. New York closer Edwin Diaz’ return to action tilts the back-end situation more in their favor even though I like the Brewers’ relief depth and high-leverage crew better.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES – 3:05 ET (BAL -190, 7.5)
P Sandoval (L) vs. C Burnes (R)
The lopsided price on this game seems like a no-brainer and my raw numbers do not disagree. Corbin Burnes is a mid-3.00s workhorse who has taken his lumps this spring but is ramped up for a 5+ inning start. If anything, the Angels’ lackluster form except for a couple hitters matches Burnes’ lack of sharpness. A preseason downgrade to L.A. against right-handed pitching in general aids the Orioles’ ace to a degree, providing some confidence that he will work into the 6th inning and spare the Bautista-less bullpen too much middle relief exposure.
Relief depth is an issue for the Angels, especially without Robert Stephenson to start the season. Perhaps I’m too down on the O’s bullpen and too satisfied with L.A.’s high-leverage group to make these two units closer than they may pan out to be over time. For Thursday, however, Baltimore holds a firm edge among the bullpens without Stephenson.
Things get particularly interesting with Angels’ starter Patrick Sandoval. Manager Ron Washington’s goal to get him ready for 5 innings on Opening Day is still unclear given the final start of 4.1 innings and 77 pitches. And that came after a pair of 4+ ER starts that ended in the 3rd inning. Sandoval starts the season against one of the better lineups against left-handers with about all but Cedric Mullins in regular season form. Considering that I am on the high side of the Angels this year, it says something that my handicap still makes the O’s a considerable favorite in this one.
Too Early For Action
Obviously, the Sandoval scenario is interesting enough to fire on a prop. Similar to our perspective on Tyler Glasnow in the Seoul Series opener, Patrick does not profile as a robust starter. He’s a sub 16-out pitcher across 2022 & 2023 who has begun the seasons on the 5 inning or less program. Granted, Sandoval’s first start last year was a blowout in the 3rd inning, so yanking him after five made plenty of sense. My eyes will be peeled for his total outs prop, looking specifically for a decent-priced under 15.5 number.
ATLANTA BRAVES @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – 3:05 ET (ATL -125, 7.5)
S Strider (R) vs. Z Wheeler (R)
Weather conditions more like that of Camden Yards rather than Citi Field should allow this NL East battle to commence. The titanic starting pitcher matchup of Spencer Strider and Zach Wheeler highlights Opening Day against a pair of very capable lineups. The nod goes to the Braves offense as one would expect, though key cogs Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson slogged their way through Spring Training. The counterpoint: Philly’s lineup has been even more uninspiring. Essentially everyone on Rob Thomson’ lineup card for Game #1 has struggled in preseason action.
As good as these starters are, knowing that each lineup comes into the regular season still finding their footing furthers their cases for good outings. Strider operated at a high level throughout camp with an assist from his new curveball bolstering the kid’s wicked arsenal. 33-year-old veteran Zack Wheeler has been very efficient and effective this spring as well. Tie that into a mid-3.00s profile and the writing on the wall for a cool, low run-scoring environment on Thursday. Plus Strider and Wheeler are supported by two of the best bullpens in the MLB. They’re deep and stacked with high-leverage lockdown arms.
Keeping a Short-Range View
My full game money line range falls between the dog and favorite prices, though first 5 inning line of Braves -135 has me digging deeper. It’s less about backing Strider vs. Wheeler and more about playing Atlanta’s strengths against right-handed pitching. The -1/2 run line on the first 5 inning line at even money is not worth it to me considering that Zach Wheeler is an elite starter and could keep things too close for comfort.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ CINCINNATI REDS – 4:10 ET (CIN -155, 9)
J Gray (R) vs. F Montas (R)
Frankie Montas gets the nod to start Opening Day in Cincinnati and the veteran looks ready to put in a full 5+ innings. His start to Spring Training was rough but he hit his marks in the final two exhibitions, yielding a single mistake in 5 frames against Colorado before breaking camp. In the meantime, the Nationals lineup received left-handed help in Joey Gallo and Jesse Winker as part of a larger platoon focus in Dave Martinez’ lineup. If Spring Training is any indication, Winker’s .333/.480/.462 looks to be more fruitful come Thursday as compared to Gallo’s ugly .103/.186/.128 line. Fortunately for Washington, Abrams, Thomas, Meneses, and Ruiz come into the regular season on the right track as core members of this lineup.
Flip to the home team dugout and it’s a classic case of good news, bad news. Cincy suffered three major setbacks this spring, losing dynamic centerfielder TJ Friedl to a fractured wrist and rising star Matt McLain to shoulder injury (maybe?). Noelvi Marte’s PED suspension stands as the third. Organizational depth will bail the club out for a little while as Stuart Fairchild and recent acquisition Santiago Espinal enter the regular season in good form – much like most of the Reds’ core position players. Nats’ starter Josiah Gray has been up and down this spring, leaving the door open for lefty hitters Will Benson, Jake Fraley, and Elly De La Cruz to kick their 2024 campaigns off on the right foot.
Equalizers Or Chaos Agents? The Bullpens
Washington’s full strength bullpen could have their hands full considering how its effectiveness is concentrated with Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey. Gray’s length dictates the relief unit’s success as middle and bulk relief is iffy. But the Reds bullpen faces notable absences with Ian Gibaut, Sam Moll, and Alex Young on the shelf. Offseason additions help fill those gaps to a degree. I have these bullpens tight to one another at this point, though a sub-5 inning outing by Josiah could be beneficial to Cincy grinding out late-game runs. Total of 9 looks right to me as well with a steady wind out to center despite mid-50s temps.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES – 4:10 ET (-110, 7.5)
L Webb (R) vs. J Musgrove (R) Y Darvish (R)
Significant roster changes highlighted these NL West challengers’ offseasons. San Diego swapped one of the best hitters in the game, Juan Soto, for much-needed pitching help. San Francisco, on the other hand, hit the free agent market hard to pepper their roster with key additions. Opening Day features a pair of quality sub-4.00 starting pitchers who attack the strike zone regularly with good command. Bullpens rate similarly but have different textures. The Giants’ relief unit features a thorough high-leverage group featuring closer Camilo Doral and the Rogers twins setting him up. Losing Josh Hader in free agency saps much of the punch from the Padres’ bullpen. The wild card that should become clearer in the coming months is whether San Diego’s relief talent gels as a cohesive group.
The early goings rest heavily on how the starting pitching fares. Logan Webb gives the Giants an advantage in the duel with Joe Musgrove. While the Padres have plenty of accomplished hitters in the lineup, they will miss Juan Soto’s bat – especially against a challenging right-hander like Webb. My outlook for the Giants steadily improved as they signed powerful DH Jorge Soler and well-rounded players Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee. Yet it’s the ability for the Padres to throw enough lefties out of the bullpen like Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, and Tom Cosgrove that could be the middle-innings equalizer. First 5 innings is a tossup for me without much edge. But I do lean strongly on the Padres over the full game at this point, just not with enough confidence as I dig deeper – especially with the market moving against San Diego.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS – 4:10 ET (LAD -235, 8.5)
M Mikolas (R) vs. T Glasnow (R)
A tale of two starters pits the reliable Miles Mikolas against the dynamic, yet often-injured Tyler Glasnow. Nonetheless, the pitch-to-contact Mikolas faces an uphill battle against a murderer’s row of left-handed hitters. Headliner southpaws Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy join forces with Mookie Betts and Will Smith to form an elite unit against righties – right up there with the Atlanta Braves in a class of their own. Prior to last season, a guy like Mikolas benefitted from a strong defense behind him but those days are essentially over.
Injuries to Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbar, and now Dylan Carlson compromise the Cardinals’ run-saving ability. Plus the philosophical change of swapping a glove-first outfielder like Harrison Bader for slugger Jordan Walker makes Miles’ job that much harder. Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman also need time to gel and shore up the middle infield. There’s been enough shakeups in the Redbirds’ defense to ultimately shed the label of elite fielding group held since 2020.
To Be, Or Not To Be?
On that note, the Dodgers are still working out the kinks in their middle infield as Gavin Lux became the fly in the ointment. This group still provides ample support elsewhere for their high-strikeout, high-ground ball ace. Both bullpens are in my second tier behind a handful of the best in the majors. Late inning dominators and substantial depth make it tough for opponents to overcome deficits while the starters are in play. Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers deserve a 2/1 price in their home opener, especially given the 1-run gap between Glasnow and Mikolas. As for attacking this game, my preference is the Dodgers’ first 5 inning team total if 2.5 was priced closer to even money. But it’s not at this point and I’ll probably be on the sidelines.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ TAMPA BAY RAYS – 4:10 ET (TBR -135, 7.5)
J Berrios (R) vs. Z Eflin (R)
This battle of AL East contenders features the Blue Jays’ reliable righty Jose Berrios against one of last season’s surprise performers Zach Eflin. Naturally, Eflin’s bid to repeat 3.50 ERA and 3.01 FIP/3.12 xFIP met significant resistance in Spring Training (11 ER in 11.2 IP). Berrios’ ramp-up was much smoother (2 ER in 13.0 IP), making the case for a tighter gap between them in Game #1. Toronto’s row to hoe against right-handed pitching gets longer in 2024 without Brandon Belt’s 146 wRC+. Fortunately, Daulton Varsho is “cleaning up his process” and hit the ground running in camp. The Jays’ lineup as a whole looks tuned up as well, so Eflin could have his hands full on Thursday.
My preseason expectations downgraded the Rays lineup to account for peak performance declines and the absence of Wander Franco. Isaac Paredes’ reduced production against righties plus the absence of Josh Lowe due to an oblique strain are key headwinds in this particular matchup. Aside from Richie Palacios and Yandy Diaz, spring has not been overwhelmingly productive for the Rays’ hitters. Consider this divergence of forms leading into Opening Day in the handicap.
A Starting Pitcher Conundrum
Tampa Bay’s edge in the bullpen widens via notable absences in the Jays’ relief unit. Closer Jordan Romano and setup man Erik Swanson are on the shelf to start the season. Missing this pair of experienced high-leverage arms is a blow, though this group should still perform at an above-average level with plenty of beef to cover the first series of the season. The Rays counter with a top ten unit fully capable of closing out games with confidence. Tampa Bay is my lean around -130, however Zach Eflin’s spring form compared to Jose Berrios concerns me.
MINNESOTA TWINS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS – 4:10 ET (MIN -120, 8)
P Lopez (R) vs. C Ragans (L)
Moving on to the AL Central portion of the Opening Day slate, the face-off between Minnesota and Kansas City represents the division’s rabbit being chased by an up-and-coming challenger coming all the way from the back. But the gap between top and bottom of the Central is significant as represented by the graphic above. That said, Minnesota’s bullpen takes a big hit without closer Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar. Starter Pablo Lopez should give his club 5+ innings and keep reliever usage manageable in the season opener. Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Steven Okert anchor late-innings duty with a small amount of dropoff.
Lopez has not been particularly sharp in Spring Training (2+ ER in all 4 outings) as Royals’ starter Cole Ragans struggled to find his footing (4+ ER in each of his final 3). I’ll hold Pablo’s half-run edge over his counterpart due to their similar trajectories leading up to Thursday. Despite my outlook for the Twins offense to shed a few percent of effectiveness, their split against a left-hander like Ragans isn’t reduced as much. Opposing Manager Matt Quatraro’s lineup comes in with decent form as key hitters Bobby Witt Jr. (.360/.377/.640) and MJ Melendez (.310/.420/.571) broke camp in the midst of white hot heaters. We’ll see how the 5-day layoff treats them soon enough.
WAGER: Twins -111 (CRIS) [1/2 unit]
I’m still evaluating the first 5 inning line to isolate more of the Lopez vs. Ragans aspect. The full market has not yet opened on the first halves though. In the meantime, we’ve made a half-unit position on the full game at a very nice price of -111 that has come down quite a bit from an early -135 line. While I feel like we’re getting somewhat of a deal, early money on the Royals raises minor concerns worth further investigation.
DETROIT TIGERS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX – 4:10 ET (DET -178, 8)
T Skubal (L) vs. G Crochet (L)
AL Central matchup #2 pits the rising Detroit Tigers against a new-ish look Chicago White Sox. Divesting key talent and opening the doors to new blood that shape up nearly half of the 26-man roster is some kind of rebuild after a rock bottom 2023 campaign. Chicago thrusts the young, but experienced Garrett Crochet into the Opening Day starter job. The reliever-turned-starter presents a very interesting situation after failing to log a full 4-inning outing this spring. He was quite effective leading up to his final start against the Royals though (0R, 9.0 IP).
Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal has a very different set of expectations from his counterpart. Hell, he’s right in the thick of the AL Cy Young Award talk with the likes of Corbin Burnes and Framber Valdez. I’ve upgraded the White Sox lineup for semi-obvious reasons with a heavier bias against lefties. An Andrew Vaughn rebound in this department is one such reason. Fending off a ready to roll Tarik Skubal is an uphill climb though. Plus Detroit’s lineup isn’t devoid of improvement either. And they have a prime opportunity to exploit the gap between starting pitchers.
A Better Approach?
Bullpen edge goes to the Tigers’ more formidable back end of Alex Lange, Jason Foley, and Andrew Chafin. Expect both groups to throw plenty of right-handers at opposing hitters to diminish the stronger aspects of the lineups. What I am particularly interested to see is the total outs prop for Garrett Crochet given that a full 5 innings is a long shot. Weather is anything but phenomenal on the South Side, though a stiff breeze blowing out to center takes the edge off of temps around 50 degrees. I prefer under 8 runs in the contest but tend toward the Crochet prop given the state of Chicago’s bullpen leaving the door open for late run production.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ MIAMI MARLINS – 4:10 ET (MIA -135, 7.5)
M Keller (R) vs. J Luzardo (L)
A pair of really good young arms take the mound in Miami where, in full disclosure, I agree with the oddsmakers on the price. Mitch Keller reboots after fading down the stretch last season to square off against a Marlins lineup that I expect to improve against right-handed hitting. Spring Training was a mixed bag for both Keller and Miami’s hitters – Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. led the way as Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jesus Sanchez did not quite get in the groove.
Unfortunately for Mitch’s potential run support, I downgraded the Pirates’ effectiveness against southpaws like Jesus Luzardo. This could be a bottom five type of lineup in this regard and they start off against a rock solid sub-4.00 arm. Will Luzardo’s stumbles in his final two spring outings (7 ER, 7.0 IP) keep the door open for grindy production out of the Buccos? Perhaps. But at least Keller is not far off from his counterpart in terms of overall effectiveness. The relative strength bar chart above speaks more about parity than the odds do – a product of the handedness splits against these starters more than anything. A slight macro bullpen edge goes to Pittsburgh although you’d be splitting hairs between closers Tanner Scott and David Bednar. And their high-leverage partners ain’t half bad either. There’s not much here for me to work with, so pass it is.
NEW YORK YANKEES @ HOUSTON ASTROS – 4:10 ET (HOU -155, 8.5)
N Cortes (L) vs. F Valdez (L)
Two favorites to win their divisions make for one hell of an opener, except that Yankees’ ace Gerrit Cole won’t be on the bump to lead his squad. Either will DJ LeMahieu. Fortunately for New York, their big guns Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres have been raking in camp. That’s exactly what the doctor ordered after an anemic offensive season. In fact, I expect them to shake out as a top five lineup against lefty pitchers with Framber Valdez posing as their first big challenge of 2024. Framber’s warmups have been a mixed bag, and we’ll see if he breaks out of the gates with that mid-3.00s form on Thursday.
Nestor Cortes finds himself on a similar footing at the conclusion of Spring Training. His expected form is somewhere around a half-run shy of Valdez. And he doesn’t have a cake walk ahead of him either. Probably because the Astros also have one of the best lineups against lefties and they’ve been hitting well in Spring Training. But my numbers inconveniently fall in no-man’s land between the teams’ market values. The battle of the bullpens’ closer/setup men combinations modestly goes to Houston, however, a guy like Caleb Ferguson concentrates New York’s power even further at the back end. I just don’t have anywhere to go with the side or total here.
CHICAGO CUBS @ TEXAS RANGERS – 7:35 ET (TEX -115, 8)
J Steele (L) vs. N Eovaldi (R)
The Texas Rangers’ title defense starts with a Cubs team that has division champion aspirations within the crosshairs. Justin Steele runs right into the teeth of a potent lineup, especially against lefties. A key piece to monitor is Steele’s knee after getting hit by a comebacker in his final Spring Training start. All signs point to him being good to go though. The sub-4.00 rising star faces a handful of potent hitters already in midseason form, although Josh Jung is just now getting up to speed while Adolis Garcia struggled to get rolling.
Nathan Eovaldi has been sharp for the most part this spring and could be closer to equal footing with his counterpart in the opener. It’s been a mixed bag of highs and lows for the Cubs lineup in Spring Training, bringing my first 5 inning and full game lines right around a coin flip. Part of that equation is a bullpen edge similar to the starting pitching edge to mitigate the more substantial Rangers offense. Adbert Alzolay, Hector Neris, and Juilan Merryweather outclass the Jose Leclerc, David Roberston, and Josh Sborz trifecta – plus Chicago’s depth and bulk arms are more well-rounded. Regardless, I’ve started a position on the full game total score over 8 runs. Despite the quality starting pitching, I make this total in the mid-8 to low-9 range.
WAGER: Over 8 -110 (FD)
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ OAKLAND ATHLETICS – 10:07 ET (CLE -160, 7.5)
S Bieber (R) vs. A Wood (L)
I’m cautiously optimistic for a small uptick in offense out of both teams this season. However, cracking Shane Bieber is easier said than done. The veteran righty has been on point this spring (3 ER, 17.1 IP) and is a strong candidate for a full 6 innings of work. He’s ramped up and is no stranger to going deep on Opening Day. Grinding Bieber to a shorter start is pretty much the ideal line for Oakland to take advantage of a wounded Cleveland bullpen – no Karinchak, Stephan, or the lefty Hengtes. Otherwise, Barlow & Clase are a tough 8th/9th inning duo. The A’s high-strikeout, low-OBP profile puts the advantage in the Guardians’ court. But it also adds to the variance in play in the chilly Oakland evening.
Oakland’s bullpen is also pretty banged up, most notably losing Trevor Gott to Tommy John surgery this month. Game #1 of the season offers Mark Kotsay a full complement of decent relievers headlined by top prospect Mason Miller. So I don’t see doom and gloom in the later innings Thursday night if this stays close. The length of starter Alex Wood could dictate a lot about where this game goes – Cleveland’s struggles against left-handed pitching helps his cause. But if Wood continues his middling spring form, Oakland has just one lefty reliever to keep the Guardians on their heels: Kyle Muller. The -160 price on the favorite is right in this scenario and my total spread is too large surrounding the market price. I am curious to see where the total outs prop will fall for Shane Bieber.
COLORADO ROCKIES @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – 10:10 ET (ARI -240, 8.5)
K Freeland (L) vs. Z Gallen (R)
The tilted matchup in Oakland is outdone by the most lopsided Opening Day contest between NL Pennant winner Arizona and cellar dweller Colorado. The Rockies offense lacks meaningful depth but has a decent top half with Kris Bryant, Nolan Jones, and Brendan Rodgers sprinkled in there. Decent lefties in the lineup help the effort to chip away at Cy Young Award finalist Zac Gallen. Whether or not the righty suffers a slow start like last season is yet to be seen, otherwise Gallen holds a firm 1+ run edge over southpaw Kyle Freeland. He gets the Opening Day nod while Marquez and Senzatela are on the mend from Tommy John surgeries.
Obviously, the Diamondbacks offense is significantly more productive than that of the Rockies. My problem comes with laying -240 against Freeland who has looked good in spring and started the 2023 season with 18.2 innings of 2-run ball. Maybe I’m overthinking that too much, especially with a substantial bullpen backing Gallen. Outside of fielding, bullpens stand as the smallest gap between the two teams. Colorado’s relief unit actually deserves some respect away from Coors Field with a far from terrible back end. The distinct edge between starting pitchers shows on the first 5 inning line, though the books are wisely making you pay for it. At these money line price points, I’m more than satisfied staying away from the big numbers.
BOSTON RED SOX @ SEATTLE MARINERS – 10:10 ET (SEA -180, 7.5)
B Bello (R) vs. L Castillo (R)
Boston’s offense looks on plan this spring as guys like Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, and Tyler O’Neill break camp on high notes. But they’ll have to contend with one of my favorite starting pitchers, Luis Castillo. He too has been sharp in camp and should post another mid-3.00s season when the year is all said and done. I prefer the Red Sox lineup over the Mariners by a small margin that is exacerbated by each squad’s productivity against right-handed pitching.
I have no issues with Brayan Bello’s warmups this spring either. However, their young ace is still shy by a little less than a half-run when compared to the veteran Castillo. Bello will have his hands full of a decent lineup that has been clicking on all cylinders. JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh hit well, but Julio Rodriguez (.375/.500/.563), Jorge Polanco (.419/.490/.744), and Mitch Haniger were on a different planet. What do you do about that?!?
The Big Dog
My gut tells me I’m a bit low on the M’s bullpen – and that was before they lost Matt Brash and Gregory Santos for Opening Day. Andres Munoz and Gabe Speier stand as formidable high-leverage guys ready to take the handoff from Luis Castillo though. I don’t dislike the Sox better half of their group either, making a Bello 5+ inning start a great way to leverage them. That’s a big part in my rationale for a +150 takeback price on Boston making more sense than laying the favorite here. The main reason I have not taken a position yet is my failure to factor in the Mariners offense’s red hot form.
Heading for Home
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