The Monster Mile is small but mighty, and there’s no doubting that the racing action will be fierce to open Round 2 of the NASCAR Playoffs. We’re looking to follow up a big handicapping week at the Charlotte Roval last Sunday with another one at Dover. Our card was limited last week on the wild card Roval, but there’s 50 years’ worth of knowledge on this oval, giving us plenty to break down for our final NASCAR handicapping at Dover!
Our early-week race preview talked about how competitive Dover’s 1-mile oval can be, but the NBC Sports practice coverage said it best: it’s like “Bristol on steroids”. Hell, drivers are taking these 24-degree banked turns at over 150 mph. Joey Logano and Kyle Larson posted the fastest laps in Friday’s practices, though Larson maintained that speed over longer runs. All that said, it’s going to be the #11 Toyota of Denny Hamlin who starts at the front after his strong qualifying lap.
Revisiting the BetCrushers Contenders at Dover
Now that the NASCAR season is knee-deep in the playoffs, we’re paying a lot of attention to drivers that are still alive in the postseason. This article takes the initial short list and cuts it further, giving us the drivers to back with our bankroll. We’re not totally neglecting non-playoff drivers, as we demonstrated in the race preview by spotlighting Daniel Suarez. The best way to follow us as we build the weekly betting portfolio for each race is on our NASCAR coverage page and Twitter, where all plays are posted as they are made.
Chase Elliott: Can He Go Back-to-Back?
Perhaps. It’s exactly what Chase needs to make a legitimate NASCAR Championship run, and we handicap him at about 20% to win at Dover. He is the defending champ of the Dover fall race and has earned his place among contenders for this year’s running.
He has been nothing less than spectacular here, finishing no worse than 5th in all but one of his seven races at Dover. Elliott opened at +650 to win the race. The opener is almost worth the risk, but he is certainly a buy at +800 or better for a half-unit wager.
Chase Elliott (+825) to Win (1/2 unit)
Because of the volatility involved in to-win bets, our philosophy is to wager an amount half as much as a lower-risk proposition like a matchup. We made the case for Elliott earlier in the week and chipped away at this position by making a 1/4-unit bet at +770 and another at +880 before Friday’s practices. Now you can catch him around +XXX, which is certainly playable.
Chase Elliott (+125) over Kyle Busch
Let’s be frank, Chase did not blow anyone away in Friday’s practices. But neither did Kyle, yet this number moved from Elliott +125 prior to practice down to a -115 pick ’em before qualifying. The #9 will start the race in the 5th position, while Kyle will be further back in the pack at 18th. Both guys are clear threats to finish strong, but you have to respect Chase’s consistency at Dover.
In those same seven races called out in the excerpt from our race preview, Kyle has only a pair of Top-5 finishes. The only times that Busch outdueled Chase was his win in 2017 and runner-up in 2018. Guess who finished one spot behind him both times? You know who. The wrong guy is favored in this matchup; Chase at pick ’em or better is a strong play.
Martin Truex, Jr.: On a Heater
Truex came into the NASCAR Playoffs in ho-hum fashion. Then he got to Vegas and exploded for a win in the postseason opener. A week later, another win. Last week’s 7th place finish at the Roval looks subpar compared to his double wins but was undoubtedly strong in that strange test of racing stamina. He’s damn good on 1-mile tracks, especially the Monster Mile. There might be a little drama surrounding the #19 Toyota team after failing pre-qualification inspections, but we expect him to overcome this setback. If this concerns you, think about it this way: Truex’s spring Dover win came after starting the race from the back.
Martin Truex, Jr. (-106) over Kyle Busch
Despite a disappointing 15th place in last year’s fall race at Dover, Truex has been as consistent here as Elliott. He’s won two of the last six on the Monster Mile and that 15th place finish in 2018 was his only non-Top 5 finish in that stretch. Kyle has outdueled him in the last couple fall Dover races but we think it’s safe to say that MTJ is in much better form than Busch. This is similar to the Chase v. Kyle matchup – anything at pick ’em or better is a play on Truex.
Daniel Suarez: Don’t Count Him Out
Suarez was the lone non-playoff driver to make our race preview short list. Since then, he’s had practice runs worthy of a Top 10 ride. The 15th place qualifying run is nothing to write home about, but his long-run average speeds are up to snuff.
Daniel Suarez (+200) to Top 10 (1/2 unit)
The 34th place finish at the Roval was disappointing for the #41 Ford team, but we’re gauging Suarez as a sneaky Top 10 contender at Dover. Although his last couple runnings at the Monster Mile weren’t stellar performances (10th and 11th place), his overall body of work here is very good. If you’re looking purely at average finish position, Dover is Daniel Suarez’ best track.
We made the case for Suarez as a Top 10 driver earlier this week. Shortly after we published our race preview, the initial Top 10 market was posted and we jumped on the +200. Considering that we handicap him as a 50-50 shot to win this bet, anything greater than +110 is well worth a shot.
Daniel Suarez (+110) over Kurt Busch
Our NASCAR handicapping pal @NASCARStyleOdds alerted us to this one when 5Dimes expanded their matchup offerings this week. He knew we were high on Suarez at Dover and zeroed in on this plus-money opportunity. We jumped in at +110 while he showed patience and scored an amazing +135 on this matchup.
Backing Suarez here makes sense; Kurt has had off-and-on success at the Monster Mile while Daniel has been very consistent. In fact, Suarez has outraced Busch in four of his five Dover races as well as five of the last seven races this season. Kurt will most likely need a Top 5 effort to sink this wager, so a price better than pick ’em is reasonable to play.
Final BetCrushers Betting Card at Dover
- Chase Elliott (+825) to win (1/2 unit)
- Chase Elliott (+125) over Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr. (-106) over Kyle Busch
- Daniel Suarez (+200) to Top 10 (1/2 unit)
- Daniel Suarez (+110) over Kurt Busch
