PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-6
SEASON RESULTS:
70-46
Week 17 Recap:
After a nice four week stretch we fell back to earth with our player props in week 17 with a losing weekend. When things are going well, the ball seems to bounce your way, and this weekend it definitely bounced backwards for us. It started with our first bets on Saturday night as we went 1-2 in the Cowboys and Lions game. We had both Lions running backs rushing yards totals, and that ended up splitting as David Montgomery got to his mark, but Jahmyr Gibbs didn’t get to his. The angering part of his was him breaking a 38 yard run that was called back on a ticky-tacky holding call that didn’t really even assist him. To make matters worse, we lost Jake Ferguson’s receptions prop by the hook as he ended with four catches when we had the over at 4.5. Things didn’t get better on Sunday. We lost C.J. Stroud’s yardage total, mainly because the Texans got up big on the Titans, who showed no threat of retaliating. As a result, Houston took the air out of the ball in the second half. We had another close loss as Kyren Williams didn’t get over his yardage total either, despite playing one of his best games of the season. We did get a win with fading James Cook against the very good Patriots run defense, but gave it back with another loss with Patrick Mahomes rushing yards total. Mahomes didn’t take off as he did a week ago and only had two late carries in the game. Our final play of the weekend was backing Ty Chandler in the Vikings and Packers game with what seemed like a manageable yardage total against the much maligned Packers defense. The Vikings fell behind early and had to abandon the run, which killed any shot of Chandler getting to his marker.
Week 18 Preview:
As we mentioned in our weekly plays article, there are a lot of players/games that basically need to be removed from potential wagers in week 18. So many teams have very little to play for, and that’s always a risky proposition if you’re betting real dollars. The simplest plan is to just avoid these situations. Or if you’re thinking about betting them, at least lean toward the unders. We’re of course going against the grain and going with overs because it’s worked thus far in 2023 for us. You’ll notice three of the four players we’re backing have meaningful games to play in. The other we have as our featured Star of the Week in DFS, so we’ll ride with him here on Sunday as well. Let’s hope we can finish the regular season strong.
Our Picks:
Josh Allen – Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-115)
If you’re looking for reasons not to back Allen this week, you can point to his nagging injuries, an emphasis on the running game since Joe Brady took over as OC, and the fact he has only throw three total touchdowns in his last four football games. The Bills have struggled a bit in the red zone, and as a result, Allen has essentially had to play “bully-ball” and use his legs to produce touchdowns over the last month of the season. So why are we betting on him to throw at least 2 touchdowns against the Dolphins on the final regular season game of the 2023 season? Plain and simple, it’s the opponent. Trends and historical data only count for so much, but literally every single data point in the past points to this happening. For starters, Allen has thrown for at least 2 touchdowns in every single game he’s ever faced the Dolphins in his career. Included in that are several 3 and 4 touchdown games and 6 offensive player of the week trophies. He’s only faced a Vic Fangio defense twice in his career, but both times he passed for four touchdowns. The Dolphins defense is thin at the moment with both starting edge rushers (Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb) lost for the season. Additionally, Xavien Howard is unlikely to play which weakens the secondary as well. The Bills coaching staff made it a point to discuss how if they’re going to get in and have a chance in the playoffs they’re going to have to throw the ball better, including in the red zone. Everything is lined up for Allen to have another good performance against the Dolphins in a game the team may have to win to secure a playoff berth.
Kenneth Walker III – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Injuries put a little dent into the production of Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III, but he stated this week he feels as healthy as he has since the beginning of the season. The Seahawks will face off against the Arizona Cardinals in a game that means a lot to the Seahawks and very little to the Cardinals. If we’ve learned anything about Pete Carroll, it’s that he loves to run the ball in crucial situations, and that’s not just a dig at the call in the Super Bowl. The Cardinals defense has been one of the worst in the league throughout the season and the really struggle with power running backs, which Walker certainly is. He also has the speed to break long runs as well, which makes him a threat when he has a yardage total sitting relatively low. When you break down Walker’s game log this season, it’s really pretty simple. He and the Seahawks have put up big numbers against poor rush defenses, and conversely, the stats just aren’t there when they’ve played stronger run defenses. We’re expecting this to be a near 20 carry spot for Walker, which would mean he’d only need to average three yards per carry to get home with this total. In his first contest against the Cardinals he amassed his lone 100 yard game on the season and averaged over four yards per carry. We’re projecting him close to the 80 yard mark, so there’s some margin for variance here. Let’s see what Walker and the Seahawks can do under pressure.
Dalton Schultz – Over 41.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
A mid-season injury prevented tight end Dalton Schultz from putting up a really nice statistical season in his first go-round with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Schultz is healthy once again and just in time as he’ll be needed when the Texans face the Colts in what is essentially a playoff game to get into the playoffs. Despite coming off of a quiet game against the Titans, we really like Schultz to put up some big numbers this week against the Colts. The Titans were the number one team in the league defending opposing tight ends, while the Colts rank near the bottom in that category. Additionally, Indy has trouble over the middle of the field where Schultz does most of his work as a receiver. The Texans lost wide receiver Tank Dell, and they also have ruled out Noah Brown for this important season-concluding contest. Without two of the top three wideouts available, Schultz is likely to assume the role of secondary receiver behind Nico Collins. The Colts will certainly be paying a lot of attention to Collins, which means Schultz could be in line for a heavy game of targets. That wouldn’t be abnormal as he’s had double-digit targets three times this year, including two weeks ago. If the Texans are going to pull off the road win in Indianapolis, you can bet Schultz will be a big part of the equation.
James Conner – Over 69.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Kenneth Walker III isn’t the only running back we like in the NFC West showdown with the Cardinals and Seahawks, we’re backing James Conner as well. Give Conner some props as he’s played hurt this season, and with a team that has had basically nothing to play for he has certainly given it his all week in and week out. There’s no reason to think that won’t continue as the Cardinals look to end the season on a high note potentially playing spoiler against one of their rivals. Their offensive line has performed well, and the return of Kyler Murray makes this a competitive team, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Facing the Seahawks should be a favorable situation for Conner as Seattle has reverted back to their 2022 ways in terms of stopping the run. They got off to a good start early in the season, but since week six they rank second to last in defensive run EPA. That’s good news for Conner who is averaging nearly five yards per tote on the season. Since his return from injury he’s topped this 69.5 mark in all but three games. One of which was a blowout where he only saw six carries, and the other two were against two of the better rush defenses in the league in the Bears and Texans. The lanes should be there for Conner and the tough running back should push his way past this total to finish the season strong.
