PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
4-4
SEASON RESULTS:
24-13
Week 5 Recap:
There was a lot of back and forth for our player prop bets last weekend, and when it all shook out, it ended up with a whole lotta nothing. We paid out some juice as we split our 8 wagers going 4-4 in the entirety. We started 0-1 in the London game as we had Josh Allen faded with his passing yards. He got off to a slow start, and that looked as though it might hold, however with the Bills trailing for the entire game, Allen was forced to throw a lot, and he ended up surpassing the number and then some. We had a nice bounce back as our early bets cashed pretty early and easily with Michael Pittman, Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins surpassing their reception totals and Gus Edwards and then later Breece Hall easily beating their respective rushing marks. It looked like we would be in store for another profitable weekend, but T.J. Hockenson dropped a pass that would have gotten him past his target, and Jordan Love was a bust on Monday Night Football. A lot of handicapping for a mediocre weekend, but it’s all part of the journey.
Week 6 Preview:
We’re rolling with just four bets this weekend with only running backs and wide receivers featured. There just wasn’t a whole lot on the slate that really seemed appealing, making this our lightest week of prop bets so far this year. If you’re an analytical bettor, you probably aren’t going to be too interested in following any of these selections as they’re more subjective than fact based. Week six also has to factor in weather for the first time this season, and offers an extra challenge with one of our bets. Backing mediocre players can be a dicey proposition, but we’ll see if we’re still dialed in.
Our Picks:
K.J. Osborn – Over 40.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
The Vikings have squandered a lot of opportunities to begin the 2023 season and they now have to take the field without their top player as Justin Jefferson will be sidelined for a bit. Losing Jefferson will undoubtedly hurt their offense, however things aren’t completely lost in Minnesota. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has proven he can get the ball to other weapons, which he’ll be forced to do against the Bears. The good news for Cousins and the Vikings is they’ll face a Bears team that features one of the worst defenses in the league. So who feast on the targets that normally go to Jefferson in the passing game? Tight end T.J. Hockenson would be the main candidate, and the rest would likely be split amongst Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and Brandon Powell. We’re focused on Obsorn for a few reasons. When Jefferson left the game a week ago, Osborn garnered the targets from that point forward, giving us a glimpse at what we might see. Additionally, Osborn has the lengthiest rapport with Cousins, and that trust factor should have him looking that way. And finally, Osborn was steadily in the mid 30’s for yardage even with Jefferson in the lineup. If he were to continue that pace, he’d essentially just need one additional catch from what he was doing before the Jefferson injury. As long as this game stays competitive, which with a three point spread it should, we’re feeling Osborn this week.
Tyler Allgeier – Over 38.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
After a fast start to the season, the Atlanta Falcons rushing attack has slowed down a bit in recent weeks. They’ll look to get it back on track in an important game against the Washington Commanders at home. The Falcons understandably want to get Bijan Robinson going, but head coach Arthur Smith actually mentioned he wanted to make sure they were getting Tyler Allgeier snaps after last weekend. With quarterback Desmond Ridder struggling throwing the football, the Falcons backs have faced a lot of stacked boxes. It was only one performance, but Ridder tossing for 300+ yards a week ago should at least help loosen things up a bit for the running game. Allgeier has averaged 13 carries per game thus far, and if he is able to get that number in this one, he simply needs to average 3 yards per carry to surpass this rushing total. The Commanders are allowing nearly 5 yards per carry to opposing teams, so look for both Robinson and Allgeier to have solid games. With a total in the 30’s we’ll take a shot with Allgeier in this one.
Calvin Ridley – Over 61.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
No one started the season faster than Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley who torched the Colts in the first half of week one of the season. Things stalled about for Ridley and the Jags offense until they rebounded against the Bills in London a week ago. Last season the Jaguars offense got going in England, and carried momentum back to the states, something that could happen again. That’s not what we’re counting on here though, we’re more focused on the opponent of the Jags, and in particular the secondary of the Indianapolis Colts. Indy has not been great stopping opposing wideouts, and more specifically, receivers lined up out wide. Ridley plays almost primarily outside, which would explain his success in week one against the Colts. Add in the fact Zay Jones will miss this contest, and Ridley should see enough targets against this secondary to crack his yardage mark. One other note, the Jaguars offensive line should be as strong as it’s been all year, meaning extra support for Lawrence when he drops back to throw. There’s simply too much going in Ridley’s favor not to back him this weekend.
James Cook – Over 58.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook started the season on fire before hitting a wall the past two weeks against the Dolphins and Jaguars. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey took some heat for his inability to get Cook and the running game going last week, with Cook only seeing five total carries. With a stated focus on getting Cook going, he should be heavily worked into the offensive game plan. Facing a team in the Giants that allows 5.3 yards per carry certainly should bode well for Cook, who has the ability to break off big runs with even just a little bit of space. Game script should play a big factor in this wager as well with the Bills being over two touchdown favorites in this home matchup. If they get up early, we should see a lot of running from Buffalo. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray will steal some carries from Cook, but based on his lack of production the last two weeks, he should get plenty of work on Sunday night. Hitting 60 yards seems very do-able.
