Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 14-7
Week 5 Recap:
Alright, we could certainly be happy with a 3-1 week, and the fact we had these games pretty much nailed to a tee. The handicapping was literally spot-on, yet somehow we still couldn’t generate a sweep for one simple reason. A 102 yard pick-six from the New York Giants at the tail end of the second quarter kept us from hitting our Miami Dolphins first half -7.5 bet as they only took a 7 point lead into the half. Other than that frustrating beat, everything turned up roses. The Dolphins did surpass their team total, early in the second half, and the Lions had no trouble handling the Panthers and securing their first half cover. The Chiefs and Vikings game was close as far as the total went, but ended up right at 47 points, where we had it predicted. Another productive weekend in the books, and we’re already looking ahead to week six.
Week 6 Picks:
We don’t play a ton of games directly against the spread to begin with, and this week is definitely no exception. These lines seem extremely difficult, as the underdogs can’t really be trusted, and the favorites have some tough looks. We do have one play ATS, but we’re going back to the totals in week number six, and double-dipping in one game. For the first time this year, we’re attempting to ride some recent heavy trends, as we’re hopeful those streaks will continue for at least one more week. A total of six wagers for week six in what we hope is as enjoyable of a six pack as the one we’ll be drinking on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (5-0) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Sunday October 15th
1:00pm
Browns Stadium – Cleveland, OH
San Francisco 49ers -10 (-110)
Over/Under 36 (-110)
Deshaun Watson will miss his second straight start in untimely fashion as the Browns welcome the red-hot 49ers to Cleveland on Sunday. San Francisco is coming off of a statement win and needs to avoid a let down against a Browns defense that is one of the better units in the league. Even if Cleveland can slow down the 49ers offense, are they able to produce enough points on their end against the Niners stout defensive squad to pull off a big home upset?
How much really needs to be said about this San Francisco offense other than the flavor of the day conversation about whether or not quarterback Brock Purdy is elite? Regardless of your views on that topic, this is one of the toughest assignments for this offense as they fly across country and face one of the better defenses in the league. Myles Garrett looks like he’ll be ready to go, and they’ll need him if they want to slow down the attack of the Niners. The biggest problem with stopping the San Francisco offense is where the heck do you even start? Even if you slow down one, or two, or even three of their weapons, they can still slice you apart. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is going to bring pressure, because that’s what he does, especially against younger quarterbacks like Purdy. Whether or not they can force a mistake or limit the 49ers will likely be determined by whether or not the pressure is able to get home. San Francisco’s offensive line isn’t necessarily great beyond Trent Williams, so Kyle Shanahan will once again have a chess match on his hands against Schwartz. Patience may be a key for the Niners in this game as Purdy may need to utilize some quick throws and check downs against the pressure. Of course if they can hit some big plays over the pressure, that will certainly help the cause as well for this offense.
After a failed attempt to see what Dorian Thompson-Robinson could do in Deshaun Watson’s absence, the next man up will be journeyman P.J. Walker at QB for the Browns. Not ideal to face what most believe to be the league’s top defense in your first start, but at least Walker has an opportunity. He’ll not only have that matchup challenge as an uphill battle, he’ll be facing them without Nick Chubb of course, but also without All-Pro guard Joel Bitonio. With center Ethan Pocic also banged up, the 49ers defensive line could make life miserable all day for Walker. Keep an eye on rookie OSU Buckeye Dawand Jones matched up against Buckeye Nick Bosa on the right side of the line as well. Jones has looked great overall as a rookie, but this will be a huge test for him on Sunday. One thing Walker has going for him is his ability to run, and chances are he’ll be doing a lot of that against this front seven of the 49ers. Even without Nick Chubb, the Browns offense is centered around getting the ground game going, something they haven’t been able to do without Chubb. In what will undoubtedly be a hard-hitting game, we could see a heavier workload for the physical Kareem Hunt as Cleveland will want to grind out some tough yards to stay ahead of the sticks. The 49ers are also aggressive on defense, so somewhere along the way they’ll need to hit some big plays to their receivers. Most importantly, if the Browns are going to have a chance in this game, P.J. Walker has to take care of the football. If they lose the turnover battle in this game, they’ll have no shot at winning.
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games
– The 49ers are averaging 31 points per game in the 2023 season
– The Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the NFC
If you were lucky enough to get in on the 49ers when they were under a TD favorite, your book should just cash that ticket right now. Realistically, this team will probably cover the double digit number as well as it’s tough to see Cleveland’s path to success in this game. Yes, this is a cross-country trip after a big win, but San Francisco is just on another level at this point in the season. Despite our confidence in SF, we’re actually not betting this game against the spread for our article. Instead we’re looking at the first of several team totals for week number six. The 49ers have scored over 30 points in all of Brock Purdy’s starts except for one (not including the playoff game he left against the Eagles). Even though the Browns defense will put up a fight, do we really think the Niners can’t hit the 30 point mark again as their defense is facing P.J. Walker and the Browns minus an All-Pro lineman and Nick Chubb? Their team total is flat out too low, even if it’s windy and the home crowd in Cleveland is fired up. This is one of those streaks we believe will continue.
BetCrushers Take: San Francisco 49ers – Team Total – Over 22.5
49ers 30, Browns 13
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (1-4) vs. Chicago Bears (1-4)
Sunday October 15th
1:00pm
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Minnesota Vikings -3 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
A pair of frustrated 1-4 teams in the NFC north will face off when the Vikings head to Chicago to face the Bears in a game that essentially will put the loser out of contention in the division. The Bears have come to life the past two weeks, while the Vikings continue to shoot themselves in the foot when it matters the most. Minnesota will be adjusting to life without Justin Jefferson, while the Bears enter the game without their top three running backs. One of these teams will keep their slim hopes alive for the 2023 season, while the other may be already thinking about the offseason before the mid-way point of this year.
As if the Vikings season wasn’t disappointing enough through the first five weeks, they’ll now have to score points without the top wide receiver in the league as Justin Jefferson is sidelined on IR. We may not see the true impact of this against a Bears secondary that hasn’t been great, and has been banged up as well. Cousins should still be able to produce on Sunday as rookie Jordan Addison, as well as K.J. Osborn are more than capable of making plays if given time. Cousins should have that time in the pocket as Chicago is near the bottom of the league in pressuring the quarterback. Additionally, they have been soft at stopping the run, meaning Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers could both have nice games in this one. If Minnesota can get the running game going, Cousins will make them pay, even without his top weapon. T.J. Hockenson is coming off of two subpar games, and this seems like a great spot for him to bounce back versus a team that likes to play a lot of cover two shell defense. As we’ve seen routinely this season, the only team that seems to be able to stop the Minnesota offense, is in fact the Minnesota offense. The Vikings simply have to take care of the football, particularly in the red zone. This 1-4 team could realistically be 4-1 if they simply took better care of the ball. There’s zero reason they should be turning it over against this Chicago defense.
There’s been a lot of talk of “selling high” on Justin Fields and the Bears offense after the past two weekends, and we certainly won’t argue with that logic. Still, this offense clearly has found some rhythm, and they’ve managed to get their playmakers open and involved, particularly D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. The Vikings defense is much improved from a season ago, but are still not a shutdown unit as an entire starting eleven. The Bears will be starting D’Onta Foreman at running back as their top three options are all banged up in this contest. That’s not a terrible thing for Chicago as Foreman has actually been very productive when given opportunities in his career. He’s also well-rested heading into the game so don’t be surprised if he’s able to get the ground game going for Chicago. That would be a huge boost to Justin Fields as he’s been able to make plays when teams have had to worry about the running game. In the passing game, the Bears will likely need some help from the other receivers on the roster, as D.J. Moore will draw a lot of attention from the Vikings defense. This could also be a spot where Justin Fields organically is able to make some big plays with his feet, now that he seems to be playing looser and more confidently.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Bears
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 games for the Vikings on the road
– The Bears are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games
– The total has gone over in all 5 games for the Bears in the 2023 season
Streaks are always going to come to an end, and predicting when it will happen is never easy. If you notice the trend above, you’ll see the total has gone over in every game the Bears have played this season. That is going to even out at some point, but we’re banking on that not being the case just yet. We know the Bears defense isn’t great, and the Vikings defense is an average group on a good day. With Justin Fields starting to make some things happen, and Kirk Cousins consistently moving the ball, offenses should rule the day in this game. Wind may play a little factor here, however both teams will likely be able to run the ball to some extent. It’s hard to trust either of these teams in terms of the outcome of the game, but each should put some points on the board when it’s all said and done.
BetCrushers Take: Total – Over 43.5
Vikings 27, Bears 24
Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins
vs. 
Carolina Panthers (0-5) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-1)
Sunday October 15th
1:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Miami Dolphins -14.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
In one of a trio of Sunday mismatches the Carolina Panthers will take on the Miami Dolphins in search of their first win of the season. The Dolphins continue to showcase their speed and athleticism and will have some opportunities against a Panthers defense that has largely underperformed, possibly due to spending too much time on the field. On offense, the Panthers are showing signs of improvement, yet are nowhere near the class of their opponent on this particular Sunday.
Let’s start with the positives for the Carolina Panthers offense heading into this brutal matchup against the Dolphins. Rookie Bryce Young has steadily improved each week, and his receivers are getting healthier. Unfortunately, that’s about where it stops as there isn’t a whole lot else to be really excited about with what they’re doing. Miles Sanders will miss this game at running back, which puts an even heavier burden on Young and the passing game, in a spot where they’re going to have to score a lot of points already to contend. Much like on offense, the Dolphins defense likes to speed things up by getting heat on opposing quarterbacks. Even though Young is one of the more cerebral rookie QB’s we’ve seen, he could face a lot of looks and pressures in the Miami sun. The Dolphins also look to have pass rusher Jaelen Phillips back to bolster the defense after he missed the previous two games. Perhaps the biggest problem for the Panthers offense in this matchup is they simply don’t have the game-breakers that Miami has on their side of the ball. Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark are capable supporting receivers at this point in the league, but in a game where they’ll need points, grabbing a few first downs and punting isn’t really going to help.
We started with a positive for the Panthers on offense, so let’s continue that trend with their defense this weekend. They won’t have to worry about stopping dynamic rookie De’Von Achane as he’s headed to the sidelines a bit with an unfortunate knee injury. That’s about where things end on this side of the ball as well, as there isn’t much to get excited about if you’re a Panthers fan and you’re facing this track team. For starters, Raheem Mostert is more than capable of filling the void at running back, and as long as he holds on to the football, should have a big game himself. Miami should have both Salvon Ahmed and Jeff Wilson, Jr. back as well so there’s some depth at the very minimum as well. The Panthers have done a respectable job slowing down wide receivers this year as their secondary has been a bright spot for the team. That being said, the combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are about as unstoppable as it gets at that position. With a pass rush that hasn’t been consistent, look for the Dolphins to continue to get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hand quickly as usual, and into the hands of his weapons. Everyone knows the basis of this Miami offense is hitting the big play, which they certainly may do on Sunday, but based on the scheme here, the Dolphins may have to take what’s given to them and move the ball a little more methodically than they often like to.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in the 2023 season
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 games for the Dolphins
– The Dolphins are averaging 37 points per game in the 2023 season
The Panthers will find their way to a win one of these weeks before the season ends, but everyone outside of the city of Charlotte probably agrees it isn’t going to be this weekend. Even though the Dolphins don’t have an elite defense, this is the type of game where they’re going to be able to get pressure on Bryce Young and make some plays. We know what their offense will do, even without Achane in the lineup. Much like in the 49ers game, there’s a strong chance they’ll cover the ridiculously high spread number. We’re going to follow last week’s Dolphins selection and take them once again on their team total over. Simple math here. At home, poor opponent, averaging much higher than this. The high-flying Miami offense should shine once again.
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins – Team Total – Over 30.5
Dolphins 37, Panthers 17
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
vs. 
New Orleans Saints (3-2) vs. Houston Texans (2-3)
Sunday October 15th
1:00pm
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
New Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 42.5 (-110)
We’re not even a third of the way into the 2023 season so we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but it sure looks like the Texans are the leader in the clubhouse in the quarterback sweepstakes from this past draft class. C.J. Stroud faces a tough test in a home matchup against the physical Saints defense in an interesting inter-conference battles. Will Stroud be able to keep his turnover free play going against the Saints or could this be the week realty hits for the young QB?
Sometimes it can take offenses or defenses time to gel in the National Football League, and that would appear to be the case with the New Orleans Saints. Last week seemed like a turning point for Derek Carr and the offense as they were finally able to spread the ball around and look as though they were in some form of rhythm. They’ll try to build upon that against a Texans defense that has been really feisty behind rookie Will Anderson, Jr. and a group of scrappy players at every level. The Saints have needed to see improved play from their offensive line, and Carr certainly needs that if he’s going to be successful in this game and this season. If the Texans want to win this game, they have to win the battle in the trenches, plain and simple. They have that ability against the Saints offensive line, and being at home should help the cause a bit. If there is a weakness on the Texans defense it would have to be the depth in the secondary. They’re getting solid play from their starters, however if the Saints can spread them out and utilize all of their weapons, they’ll have an advantage here. Houston has also struggled stopping the run, and after a couple of warm-up starts, this could be the breakout game for Alvin Kamara running the football. The formula for New Orleans offense is pretty simple here, protect Derek Carr, run the football, and spread it around to multiple weapons.
If there is a surprise unit this year in the NFL the Texans offense would have to be up for consideration, and that of course starts with quarterback C.J. Stroud. The rookie is off to a historically good start, and he’s doing it with a cast of supporting players most would consider average across the league. He’s also done it with a patchwork offensive line, one that will see it’s key components return on Sunday, most notably starting tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. It’ll be a tough assignment for those tackles and the offensive line against a front seven of the Saints that has been playing underappreciated phenomenal ball. The Saints have been pretty stingy against the run and the pass, ranking in the top ten in both categories. They’ll focus on locking down Dameon Pierce and the running game to force C.J. Stroud to continue his strong play throwing the football. If the Saints make the Texans one-dimensional, we could see the first struggles for Stroud in his young career. With wideouts Tank Dell and Robert Woods both banged up entering the contest, the Texans will need to find some support for Nico Collins, who is likely to see a lot of the resurgent Marshon Lattimore at corner. The tight ends could end up playing a bigger role than normal for Houston in this contest. Overall, what we’re looking at in this game is how well Stroud will play against one of the most consistent and physical defenses in the league?
Key Stats and Trends
– The total has gone under in the last 10 games for the Saints
– The Saints are 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the AFC
– The Texans are 1-8 straight up in their last 9 home games
– The total has gone under in 5 of the last 6 games the Texans have played versus the NFC
This is one of those under the radar sneaky and important games to keep your eyes on this weekend. The Saints want to keep pace with the Bucs and Falcons in the NFC South, and the Texans want to stay in the mix in the crowded AFC South. As the spread would indicate, this sure feels like a game that’s going to be pretty close as it may be difficult for either team to fully pull away. The Saints need to get a running game going, and there’s no reason Alvin Kamara shouldn’t succeed in that. We’re double-dipping in this one with our only wager against the spread this week, and our only under. The Saints experience and defense should be the difference in what will otherwise be a tight football game. New Orleans brought in Derek Carr for games like this, let’s see if that investment can pay off.
BetCrushers Take: New Orleans Saints -1.5 / Total – Under 42.5
Saints 20, Texans 17
New York Giants vs. Buffalo Bills
vs. 
New York Giants (1-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Sunday October 15th
8:20pm
Highmark Stadium – Orchard Park, NY
Buffalo Bills -15 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)
One of the other mismatches of the week features two teams who know a lot about each other when the New York Giants take on the Buffalo Bills. There are storylines a plenty, including Giants head coach Brian Daboll leading guys like Tyrod Taylor and Cole Beasley back into Buffalo to face their former teammates. Both teams have been decimated by injuries early in this season, however the Bills still have the depth and leaders to make this a double-digit spread. This could be another lopsided primetime game if the Giants are unable to generate consistent offense.
With so much optimism after last year’s playoff run, things have soured quickly for the New York Giants who now find themselves multi-touchdown underdogs against Sean McDermott’s defense. Daniel Jones will not be able to go after sustaining a neck injury, which means Tyrod Taylor will get the start against his former team on Sunday Night Football. Taylor is a beloved player in Bills Mafia lore as he ended their playoff drought in 2018, however he’s going to be facing a raucous home crowd in Buffalo, and a fierce pass rush that has already generated 21 sacks this season. That pass rush will also see the return of Greg Rousseau and Shaq Lawson who missed last week, as well as a few more snaps from Von Miller as he works his way back from his ACL injury. That is not ideal as the Giants offensive line has been horrendous up to this point and will once again be without their most important player in left tackle Andrew Thomas. Daniel Jones has received a lot of heat, but it’s impossible to play the quarterback position when you’re under the pressure he has faced. Taylor is a veteran, who is also mobile, so there shouldn’t be a big drop-off in the quarterback play, but even if he could perform better than Jones, it still wouldn’t be too great. There appears to be a good chance Saquon Barkley will return for the Giants after his early season ankle injury, and that will at least give the Giants a bit of a threat out of the backfield. The Giants also need to get tight end Darren Waller going against a defense that hasn’t been great the past few years at stopping opposing tight ends. Waller is questionable to go, so not having him would be just another big blow to this decimated offense. The chess match in this game will be fun to watch as Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott each understand each other’s schemes, so who will make the better adjustments? The Bills defense will be adjusting to life without three of their best players as Matt Milano, Daquan Jones and Tre White are all lost for the season. That will have major implications down the road, but it shouldn’t be too noticeable in this game.
We’re going to pin the flat performance of the Buffalo offense last week against the Jaguars on the travel to London, and not as a bigger issue than it is. If there is any concern in this game, it would be that starting tight ends Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid are both 50-50 to go in this game. For a team that likes to utilize their tight ends, that could impact the offense a bit both with blocking and receiving. Speaking of blocking, the Bills need to figure out how to block Kayvon Thibodeaux who is off to a nice start to the season with four sacks in five games. Want to hear a wild stat, though? He is the only New York Giant to record a sack five games into the season. Josh Allen has actually performed well under pressure so far this year, but he’s been nearly unstoppable when he’s had time in the pocket. The Giants have to find a way to rattle Allen if they’re going to have any chance to slow down the Bills offense. As mentioned above, Brian Daboll knows Allen’s strengths and weaknesses, but does he have enough talent to actually make the plays needed? The Giants statistically haven’t been awful versus the pass, but much of that has to do with them trailing in games. Where they have struggled is against the run, allowing nine touchdowns and over 5.3 yards per carry to opposing backs. In Buffalo’s three wins, James Cook and running game have exploded. In their two losses they’ve been held largely in check. Look for Buffalo to try to attack on the ground early to set up the passing game. The Giants need guys like Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence to step up on the interior of their line to shore up that leaky run defense.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Bills are 14-3 straight up in their last 17 home games
– The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the NFC East
– The Bills are averaging 34 points per game in the 2023 season
Before the season started this game had a lot of intrigue on the calendar. Things can change quickly in the NFL, and certainly for the Giants that is the case. The Giants may be able to keep this close for a bit, but ultimately, there’s just too much of a discrepancy in the trenches and at the quarterback and receiver positions. There’s mutual respect between these coaching staffs and organizations, but don’t think for a minute the Bills don’t want to prove the head of the family tree is still the boss. Tyrod Taylor may get a warm welcome back during introductions, but the Buffalo pass rush will be anything but kind to him behind their swiss cheese offensive line. After some criticism of the offense from the London game expect the rushing attack and Josh Allen to be focused on a prime-time home game. We’re going with another team total over here. Shop this one around as you can currently still find some juiced 29.5’s out there, but also some 31.5’s. Get the best number here if you can.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills – Team Total Over – 30.5
Bills 34, Giants 18
