ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers -160
Seattle Seahawks +195
Los Angeles Rams +1000
Arizona Cardinals +2500
My how quickly things can change in the National Football League, and that was never more apparent than a season ago in the NFC West. The Rams were fresh off of a Super Bowl victory and favorites to win the West, before a rash of injuries and questionable GM work thrust them out of contention early into the season. The Seahawks, who were left for dead with the departure of Russell Wilson, put together a nice campaign with a lot to build on. The 49ers and Cardinals went opposite directions, as San Francisco dominated despite injuries at the quarterback position, while Arizona struggled both with, and without Kyler Murray behind center. There appears to be a pretty big gap between the top two and the bottom two teams in this division heading into 2023. Will this division go as the sportsbooks believe it will, or can someone surprise the rest of the league along the way?
San Francisco 49ers
2022 Record – 13-4
2022 Record Against the Spread – 11-6
KEY ADDITIONS:
(DT) Javon Hargave, (DE) Clelin Ferrell, (QB) Sam Darnold, (C) Jon Feliciano
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(OT) Mike McGlinchey, (S) Jimmie Ward, (LB) Azeez Al-Shaair, (DE) Samson Ebukam, (DE) Charles Omenihu, (QB) Jimmy Garoppolo
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
It might be cliché to say that defense wins championships, but for the San Francisco 49ers that nearly came to fruition. The Niners rode the back of their top ranked defense all the way to the NFC Championship game before ultimately succumbing to the eventual NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. It wasn’t just the defense in the Bay that was dominant, as their offense was able to also be a top five unit. All of this despite going through both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback before turning to rookie Brock Purdy. Purdy was able to go 5-0 as a starter and win his first two playoff games before suffering his own injury. Without a viable passing option in the NFC Championship game, even the stout San Francisco defense and talented offense couldn’t overcome the Eagles. The Niners managed to have 7 pro bowlers and lead the league in turnover differential.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #18
The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2023 season with one of the most talented rosters in the National Football League, on both sides of the football. Offensively, the team received some good news with training camp opening, as it looks as though 2nd year quarterback Brock Purdy should be good to go for the start of the year. Purdy would appear to give the Niners the best chance and commanding the offense, as he’ll look to continue his strong play from his rookie season. With Trey Lance now departed for Dallas and the shaky Sam Darnold the only real option on the roster, Purdy should offer some stability at the most important position. In reality, it’s not a secret that this San Francisco 49ers offense just needs someone to be the point guard and facilitate amongst its many weapons. We know the Niners should be able to run the football behind the ever adapting schemes of Kyle Shanahan. It’s fair to note the offensive line could be as poor as it has been in recent years, despite owning arguably the top left tackle in the game. Having a play designer like Shanahan should assist the line as they’ll be able to confuse opposing defenses. When you have players like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Auyik and George Kittle, masking some deficiencies becomes a bit easier. Overall, the talent and the coaching should lead this to being another top five offense again.
Defensively, this starting eleven is ridiculously good, and the defensive line is not only elite, but also deep. When you can rotate in first round draft picks as your backups on the interior and rushing the passer, that’s normally going to lead to good things happening. The linebackers will be once again led by All-Pro Fred Warner, and Dre Greenlaw, who may be the most underrated player in the league at his position. A secondary that a season ago appeared as though it may be a little suspect, now has a year of experience behind it. The emergence of strong safety Talanoa Hufanga provides the defense with athleticism in the back end, and affords new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks the luxury of disguising coverages pre-snap. Having mentioned the expectation of the 49ers offense being a top five unit again, there is even more reason to believe the defense could finish first again, or at the very least, a top-three group.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 23rd Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-5
The 49ers tend to have this back and forth deal with injuries and their record fluctuating up and down. They should stay consistently high at this point as they’re deep enough in most areas to overcome any challenges they might have. The NFC West runs through Santa Clara and the Seahawks appear to be the only team that can even push them, let alone overtake them. Brock Purdy should provide enough, even if he isn’t lighting it up each week to help this team win with arguably the top defense in the league and extensive playmakers on offense.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers, Against the Spread
Elite teams become nearly automatic teasers when they fall into the right number range. If you find the Niners giving 7 to 8.5, or getting 1.5 to 2.5 points, you’ll probably be wise to just go ahead and tease them without overthinking it. San Francisco was also very good against the spread last year, and should overwhelm some of the weaker teams on their schedule. Double digit wins are certainly possible, so chalky bets with this team can still be profitable.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Brandon Auyik (WR), 49ers (DST)
There are so many weapons on this team it’s hard to know who’s going to get the points each week. Christian McCaffrey will be the leader as long as he’s healthy, but he’s already a top five pick in most drafts. They’re great players and will have some nice games but we’re avoiding guys like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel for the consistency factor. People tend to reach for popular players like these guys, so we’re going to zag when others are zigging. The player who really is forgotten, yet became a pretty steady producer in 2022 was wide receiver Brandon Auyik. If the price is right, he’s worth a flyer. If you can somehow get the 49ers defense without reaching for them, they’re possibly the only one worth actually drafting before the late rounds. We mentioned the potential pass rush of this team, so expect a lot of sacks and interceptions for the defense.
Arizona Cardinals
2022 Record – 4-13
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Kyzir White, (WR) Zach Pascal, (OT) Paris Johnson, Jr.
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) J.J. Watt, (DE) Zach Allen, (WR) DeAndre Hopkins, (CB) Byron Murphy, (LB) Ben Niemann
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
One day after the 2022 season ended for the Arizona Cardinals, the team made the decision to move on from head coach Kliff Kingsbury after a porous 4-13 record. Arizona was never able to meet expectations, as key injuries to quarterback Kyler Murry and on the defensive side of the ball pushed the Cardinals down the AFC West standings. Arizona was the worst home team in the league, losing eight games in their own stadium, and endured a seven game losing streak during the season. Losing thirteen games matched their franchise worst mark for a year in a season Cardinal fans would like to forget.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #31
The Arizona Cardinals only managed to win four games a season ago, and if you put any stock into our arrows above, things could be even tougher this season. New head coach Jonathan Gannon has his work cut out for him as the Cardinals have the lowest projected win total in the league. For starters, quarterback Kyler Murray will miss extended time recovering from ACL surgery, meaning veteran Colt McCoy will begin the year at QB. McCoy certainly possesses a different skill set in terms of athleticism, which could be a problem behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The team did wisely spend their first round draft pick on OT Paris Johnson, Jr., but even if he can develop into a cornerstone, this line is still well below average. James Conner has run hard for this team, and will continue to carry the load for the rushing attack. Conner has had his own struggles staying healthy, and there isn’t a lot of dynamic depth behind him. The skill position players on offense are still a bright spot for this roster, even with the recent departure of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Marquise Brown will lead a solid trio with Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore, who the organization hopes can finally stay on the field after two seasons of missing several games. The Cards are also looking to veteran tight end Zach Ertz to return from injury and provide some experience along second year tight end Trey McBride. There’s not a lot of depth behind the starters for Arizona, so any chance of offensive production is going to require the team to stay healthy throughout the year.
If you have concerns about the Cardinals offense after reading the above paragraph, you may want to cover your eyes when we examine the defense. Arizona was 31st in scoring defense a season ago, and that was before losing their top two defensive linemen and starting cornerback Bryon Murphy. J.J. Watt, presumably when looking at this Cardinal roster, opted to start his new life as a dad and retired at the end of the season. Perhaps the brightest spot on the roster in terms of the future, defensive end Zach Allen, also decided to leave in free agency. When you look at the front seven of the Cardinals, there are a lot of players that really should be special teams players in the league. Based on their current depth chart, this team could be really poor against both the run and the pass. Things look so bleak at this point, former top ten pick Isaiah Simmons is presently listed as a backup safety. The defense that had several playmakers just a couple of seasons ago, essentially is down to team captain Budda Baker, and ten other guys. It’s highly questionable whether this defense can hold up in general, and it could get really ugly if the offense isn’t moving the ball on their end.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 16th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 4.5 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 3-14
Things sure took a turn for the worse in Arizona quickly, and it’s going to be at least a little bit before they get even mildly better. When you look at the Cardinals schedule it is extremely difficult to figure out where wins are going to come from. The defense looks like it is going to be really bad, and while the offense could be at least respectable, it’s hard to see the Cards being able to outscore teams, or keep games close and low scoring. All of this adds up to what looks like a very real possibility of the worst record in the league.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
There are two wagers that are pretty consistent when it comes to player props with the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray rushing TDs are as close to a sure thing as there is as he’s near a lock to have one each week. James Conner is also going to get a lot of work so looking at his carries and yards against poor run defenses should be successful.
Fantasy Players To Watch – James Conner (RB)
Don’t get tempted by the more known names on this roster like Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz. There simply won’t be enough touchdowns and sustainable offense for them to do a whole lot consistently. That goes for the under the radar guys with potential like Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch as well. If you really want to play anyone on Arizona, it basically has to be James Conner. He’ll get a hefty workload and has always been able to punch the ball in the end zone.
Los Angeles Rams
2022 Record – 5-12
2022 Record Against the Spread – 6-10-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(TE) Hunter Long, (S) John Johnson III
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(CB) Jalen Ramsey, (WR) Allen Robinson II, (S) Taylor Rapp, (DE) Leonard Floyd (LB) Bobby Wagner, (S) Nick Scott, (K) Matt Gay
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Repeating as NFL champions has historically not been easy, and the LA Rams learned this the hard way a season ago. The team was beaten soundly in the season opener, and after winning their next two games, it was mostly downhill from there. In fact, the Rams 5-12 record and winning percentage turned out to be the worst ever by a previous Super Bowl champ. Having a losing record was unfamiliar territory for Rams head coach Sean McVay, who had managed to have a winning record in all of his previous seasons as the team’s head coach. Much of the failure of the Rams could be traced back to injuries to quarterback Matthew Stafford and All-Pros Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. In fact, the Rams ended the season with the second most players on injured reserve.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #30
The Los Angeles Rams find themselves in a bit of a conundrum heading into the upcoming NFL season. The team gets several veteran players back, who finished last season on injured reserve, however they still have several holes on their roster. In fact, the Rams may be the only team in the entire league that didn’t bring any substantial additions in for their team. A late signing of former Ram John Johnson III gives them at least one new piece, or recycled piece to work with. By trading draft capital over the previous three years, they have a roster that has a few elite players, yet more than a few unproven guys. Offensively, quarterback Matthew Stafford should instantly give their offense a spark. We’ll get to this later, but it’s worth noting the team has been raving about rookie Stetson Bennett, although he’s currently listed third on the depth chart. If Stafford or the Rams struggle at all, there is a really good possibility we see Bennett get an opportunity during the season. Stafford should be able to give them a steady veteran presence, although that’s certainly not a sure thing. The Rams quarterback will is 35 years old and he’s playing behind an offensive line that was not good a year ago, and basically looks the same on paper. We’ve got the Rams offensive line ranked 30th, and that could even be a little generous. These group had issues with both run blocking and pass blocking. Can they hold up enough to keep Stafford healthy, and give him time to locate receivers down the field? As far as the skill position players go, they’re running it back with the same core that we saw a year ago. Most importantly, they get All-Pro receiver Cooper Kupp back. At least we think, as he suffered a hamstring injury in training camp. It looks as though he’ll be ready to go by the opener, but as we know hamstrings can often be lingering injuries throughout a season. We’ll give the tough Kupp the benefit of the doubt which gives the Rams at least one weapon to scare opposing defenses. The Rams are really hoping they get what they believe they can out of third year receiver Van Jefferson, who missed his own time a season ago with injury. One player who is surely thrilled to have Stafford back under center is tight end Tyler Higbee. At times, the Stafford and Higbee collection was pretty electric during the Rams Super Bowl run two seasons ago. As was the case last year, and with teams that don’t have a lot of draft picks, there isn’t a lot of depth on this offense. For this offense to click, they’ll need to avoid the injury bug this go around.
On defense the Rams happen to employ the best defensive player, maybe in the history of the game with defensive end Aaron Donald. Unfortunately for LA, that’s where the impressiveness stops when you look at this defense. The team lost it’s next three best players on that side of the ball in the offseason as Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner and Leonard Floyd all found new employers. When you really dive into the depth chart around Donald, it’s the epitome of a no-name defense. Linebacker Ernest Jones, who has not graded out particularly well in his young career, is probably the next most experienced and well-known player on the roster. The previously mentioned John Johnson III does at least give them a little help and leadership in the secondary. Donald gives the Rams something to hang their hat on, however, this defense overall could rival the Cardinals for worst in the league. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris is going to have to put forth his best work for this team to remain competitive.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 17th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-11
At the risk of it sounding like a cop-out, there is some volatility with the LA Rams heading into this season. If their big names can stay, they should at least be competitive, even though the backend of the roster is pretty thin. There is a real chance if their record isn’t great they may give Stetson Bennett a shot, and the few difference makers they do have might sit through some injuries. If that happens it could be an utter collapse. That’s basically our way of saying, things could snowball badly for this team if they can’t get off to a good start and keep guys like Stafford and Cupp on the field.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teasers
Both the Rams from a season ago, and Matthew Stafford throughout his career have played in a lot of really close ballgames. The Rams will definitely be a team to chase the right number with and give yourself the extra 6 points.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Tyler Higbee (TE)
The less than average offensive line of the Rams make Matthew Stafford and running back Cam Akers risky picks. Cooper Kupp even has some risk with that, and his own potential injuries. If you Kupp falls he’s worth a shot, but definitely don’t reach for him or pay big bucks for him in DFS. One player who could be in line for a nice season though is tight end Tyler Higbee. He’s shown flashes throughout his career, and with the way this offense is shaping up, he should play a pretty big part in the receiving game. Higbee isn’t in that elite tier at the position, but his ROI based upon his salary or draft position could be nice.
Seattle Seahawks
2022 Record – 9-8
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-10
KEY ADDITIONS:
(LB) Bobby Wagner, (LB) Devin Bush, (DT) Jarran Reed, (S) Julian Love, (CB) Devon Witherspoon, (WR) Jaxon Smith-Njigba
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(RB) Rashaad Penny, (LB) Cody Barton, (WR) Marquise Goodwin
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Seattle Seahawks were one of the best stories of the entire 2022 NFL season. The team made some big moves before the season sending franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, and seeing defensive leader Bobby Wagner head to the rival Rams. Despite these losses, the Seahawks and head coach Pete Carroll put their faith in veteran QB Geno Smith, who ended up being named to the Pro Bowl. Leading a potent offense, Smith guided the Seahawks to a 9 win season and a playoff berth. More importantly, he established himself as the quarterback of the near future for Seattle.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #29
At some point I guess we’re going to need to start recognizing Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll as more than a gum-chewing rah-rah guy on the sideline. For the second time in his tenure with the Seahawks Carroll was able to make the correct decision with a quarterback, and Geno Smith enters the 2023 season with both a lot of confidence and a lot of talent around him. When we examine the Seattle offense there is one fairly big glaring weakness, and that is on the ever important offensive line. At times a season ago this group struggled consistently run blocking, and more so with pass blocking. It’s really a testament to Geno Smith that this offense was able to move the ball as well as they did, without the luxury of great blocking. The good news regarding this offensive line would be they have some young talent, so there is certainly a possibility they could improve and perform at a higher level than we saw previously. Left tackle Charles Cross in particular, is a player they hope can step up to really anchor this group and protect Smith’s blind side. If this happens, the Seahawks offense could really be headed for a breakout season. Critics will point to the fact Geno Smith and the team faded a bit down the stretch last year, but we’re not reading too much into that. In addition to having one of the best wide receiver duos in the league with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Seattle was able to land Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a dynamic playmaker who has legitimate rookie of the year potential. With the rookie expected to work the slot, expect to see a fair share of three receiver sets, something the team did not do all that much a year ago. Smith-Njigba wasn’t the only electric playmaker drafted by the Hawks, as they also scored running back Zach Charbonnet with their second round pick. The rookie will provide a nice change of pace and depth behind starter Kenneth Walker III. Putting a cherry on top, the team is pretty deep at tight end, with proven players backing up former first round pick Noah Fant. Anything short of a top-ten finish the Seahawks offense in 2023 would have to be considered a bit of a disappointment.
In heaping praise on Pete Carroll, it’s only fair to note that his proud defense was pretty atrocious last year, in many of the key metrics. If the Seahawks want to take the next step this season the defense is going to need to improve vastly. They made it a point during the offseason to address some areas of weakness, and at least on paper they accomplished this. The team was soft against the run, particularly in the middle of the defense, which made all the sense in the world to bring back future Hall of Fame middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. For those who might be worried about the age of the franchise LB, we’ll point out that PFF had him ranked as the #1 middle backer in the entire league on 2023. Wagner should give them a boost, even if he is a little slower than during his prime years. They also brought in some depth as Devin Bush should help fortify things in the middle as well. Seattle used their first pick, number five overall in the draft to select cornerback Devon Witherspoon to line up opposite Tariq Woolen. While Witherspoon was late to camp and is battling some small injuries to start his career, their cornerback tandem has the potential to be one of the best in the league. Adding free agent safety Julian Love also gives them flexibility in their nickel packages and depth with Quandre Diggs and the return of Jamal Adams. As is the case with many teams, the pass rush will determine just how dominant the defense can be. Uchenna Nwosu was a capable rusher for the team, but they’re going to need more. At the moment, that still looks questionable at best.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 19th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
This is going to be a really telling season for the Seahawks to find out if they are a good football team, or a competitive great football team. Their offense is going to be good again with depth at running back, a new weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba (when he returns from an early injury), and what should be an improved defense. Other than small concern with the pass rush and run defense, it’s a pretty good depth chart across the board. When you break down their schedule, they have several games they should and probably will win. It’s how they do against the quality teams that will determine their season. Can they beat teams like the Steelers, or win on the road against the Giants? These are the matchups they have to figure out how to win if they want to be a serious contender. They’ll keep within striking distance of the 49ers in the NFC West, and could even be a team that gets into the playoffs and causes a little chaos.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Seahawks are going to be a good team no matter who they’re playing so plan on a lot of close games. They’ll probably be a couple of occasions where they’re getting points at home, which makes for a nice underdog play. They were only 7-10 ATS a season ago, but that record could be flipped this year.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), Geno Smith (QB)
Unfortunately for the Hawks Jaxon Smith-Njigba suffered a fractured wrist in the preseason but he should be back by week two or three at the very latest. Even with that setback, the rookie should still have a great season and is still in play for offensive rookie of the year. We’re rostering him wherever we can. Geno Smith is a great option with his weapons to be a spot starter or backup on your teams.
