A rather blah betting weekend for me with the MLB was in the cards after a decent run to start the season. Saturday’s Mets call did not come to fruition against an on-point Logan Webb. After all, riding the David Peterson train can be a bumpy ride at times. But it’s all good as a new week ushers in new series, including a solo shot that has me twisted up a bit. That means one thing…it’s time to fire up the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-24-2023. BOL this week and I’ll be back with another breakdown on Wednesday.
2023 Featured Handicap Results
TEXAS RANGERS @ CINCINNATI REDS (TEX -110, 8.5)
There’s no place like home, right? Well, my Cincinnati Reds would like to think that getting back to the Queen City will do them some good after a four-game sweep at the hands of the red hot Pirates. Losing that series by a combined 6 runs certainly has to sting, though their job does not get much easier having to face a Rangers club that has won four straight series. Their offensive trajectories are diverging as Cincy is down 12% over the last couple weeks compared to Texas’ 20%+ surge in the same period. What goes up must come down, right?
The Rangers haven’t hit left handers quite as well this season and this past weekend showed us as much. They were “held” to 4 runs each by lefties JP Sears and Kyle Muller in their combined 11.0 innings of work. But tonight’s task is much stiffer than what Oakland’s southpaws presented. Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo has the stuff to be one of the tougher left-handed pitchers in the MLB as he progresses in year two of his big-league career. His status as a first round draft pick is materializing rapidly after just 23 starts with the Reds. So far this season, the strikeouts and ground ball contact are there despite some long ball miscues and a brutal .441 BABIP against him.
TEX vs. CIN Starting Pitcher Comparison
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | GB% | HH% | K% | BB% | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eovaldi | 5.40 | 2.26 | 3.06 | 44.6% | 49.2% | 25.8% | 4.3% | .422 |
| Lodolo | 4.98 | 4.25 | 3.46 | 46.8% | 38.1% | 29.8% | 6.7% | .441 |
Lodolo faces off against veteran Nathan Eovaldi and his inflated .422 BABIP stemming from a ton of hard contact in the season’s early goings. Kansas City made hay with 17 hits in 11.0 innings across his last two starts against them. Considering that the Reds play a similar small ball approach, it should be interesting to see what unfolds on this cool evening in Cincy. The other dynamic to watch is the Rangers’ 21.9% K rate against lefties going into the teeth of the strikeout artist Nick Lodolo. As an example, Tampa Bay succumbed to just 4 Ks against him last week with their 21.0% strikeout rate against lefties.
N Eovaldi (R) vs. N Lodolo (L)
The bottom line here is that both starters are in line to begin chipping away towards positive regression. Whether you look at something like FIP/xFIP discrepancy, BABIP, or anything of that sort, both have registered ERAs well above where they should be graded. In fact, I make both of their ranges fairly close to one another coming into the series opener. The other dynamic in play is Texas’ relative weakness against lefties that could give Nick Lodolo enough of an opportunity to limit the damage in his 5+ innings of work. Nathan Eovaldi, on the other hand, keeps the door open with significant hard contact against him even if this evening’s weather isn’t the most conducive for the long ball. This is Great American Ball Park though.
Both bullpens have performed better than my expectation to date, with both in decent form coming into the series. If one is more compromised compared to the other tonight, however, it would be the Rangers’ relief unit. I’m probably splitting hairs in this sense given that Will Smith and Jonathan Hernandez may be limited. Then again, they may not be. This adds to the concept that the pitching situation – starters and bullpens – should be an area of parity between these two clubs. So it arguably all comes down to the lineups and how opportunistic they will be. According to the numbers, shouldn’t the difference be clear?
WAGER: Rangers -110 (2.2u)
Sometimes I dislike the feeling that comes with a position like this one. The market says it is a close call but my handicap arrives at a much more straightforward conclusion: the Reds are overmatched unless Eovaldi stumbles hard. I felt similarly with the Mets on Saturday and we know how well that turned out!
Heading for Home
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