We needed runs in Cincinnati last night and boy did we get them. Throw a couple of guys out there who struggled all spring and those lineups took batting practice for a good hour or so in Cincinnati. Hey, whatever it takes to get an easy winner after plenty of close decisions so far this season! But that was yesterday and now it’s time to head west for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-4-2023.
2023 Featured Handicap Results
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES (SDP -142, 7)
Well, the Diamondbacks finally did it last night. They scored more than two runs for the first time this season after being limited to a total of 7 runs in four games against the Dodgers. Ironically, they split the four game series in L.A. by virtue of a pair of 2-1 victories. This afternoon, Arizona returns to the scene of Monday night’s disappointing ninth inning loss to the Padres. To be fair, neither of these NL West lineups has produced to expectation quite yet. For Arizona to be lagging my benchmark by 30-40% to date means it’s only a matter of time before they find their groove, right? The gambler’s fallacy might have a word for me if I want to hang my hat on that premise.
Trying to catch a falling knife may not be the sharpest idea at times. Other times it works out. The D-backs get an interesting matchup with right-handed Yu Darvish after faring well enough against southpaw Ryan Weathers last night. This comes in opposition to a well-rounded San Diego lineup that has been good enough to help rattle off three straight wins. In a vacuum, the Padres’ offense is generally 10-15% more effective. Given this afternoon’s scenario with a strong breeze blowing in from left field and with these specific pitchers, that edge conceivably gets slashed in half. We should be looking at dink-and-dunk conditions at Petco Park for the most part, and Arizona’s better overall defense helps in this regard.
Z Gallen (R) vs. Y Darvish (R)
Yu Darvish will make his 2023 debut against a club that gave him some ups and downs last year. But the questions surrounding this season have more to do with his spring ramp-up away from the Padres’ camp. His work in the WBC with Team Japan is one thing, readiness as an MLB starter after being held out of the opening series is another. Although I hate to read too much into things, Darvish was less prepared to begin the 2021 season and was roughed up by Arizona in his first start. That’s a stark contrast to last season’s opener. And with all that said, I put Yu in the upper-3.00s this season – a good baseline for today’s contest.
Opposing the 36-year-old is Arizona’s maturing ace Zac Gallen. The 27-year-old righty’s 2023 debut was spoiled by a potent Dodgers club that put the ball in play enough to wreak havoc and plate 5 runs against him. While the 3 walks slightly concern me, Gallen’s 7 strikeouts and decent swing-and-miss results say more to me than a single game with a .462 BABIP. Getting back to the ground ball game plan helps with good fielding behind him, though a decent wind coming in might help mitigate minor fly ball mistakes.
I am more interested in playing this starting pitching matchup than making a position that involves the bullpens. Arizona’s high-leverage group is arguably tapped out after back-to-back tense finishes, further separating them from San Diego’s slightly better unit that should have Josh Hader and Luis Garcia available to pick things up at the end. Why take on that sort of volatility when Yu Darvish provides the right kind of variance for my taste.
WAGER: Diamondbacks First 5 Innings +1/2 -120 (0.9u)
WAGER: Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 Runs +110 (0.75u)
This might turn out to be foolish but I’m a buyer on Gallen, especially after getting knocked by the Dodgers on Opening Day. Yu Darvish can be one of the trickiest pitchers to face with that deep arsenal though the unconventional preparation leading into the MLB season leaves the door open for a pent up Diamondbacks offense. If you’d rather not buy the hook on the first 5 innings, I’m seeing Arizona +118 at FanDuel before most other books open their first half lines. For me, I’ll split a smaller position into two parts: one relying on the D-backs to small ball their way to 2 runs, the other banking on a strong showing from Gallen this afternoon. BOL!
Heading for Home
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