The NASCAR postseason intensity grows as the Cup Series hits Richmond for a Saturday night showdown. We love the night races, although our time to prepare for them is compressed. They wrapped two practices and qualifying into Friday so there’s plenty to break down to fill out your betting card with the BetCrushers final Richmond NASCAR handicapping!
Richmond is a track that is brutal on tires. On a positive note, there’s going to be plenty of rubber on the asphalt to keep multiple grooves in play. It’s a night race…on a short track…with side-by-side racing. Prepare for a full night of drivers fighting for positions, stage points, and the checkered flag. There’s gonna be some serious highs and lows after this thing is over with because nothing is for certain at the Charlotte Roval next week before the playoff field is cut to twelve. The sixteen contending team want points, and they want them now.
Notes from Friday’s Action
Friday was a super busy day at Richmond Raceway with dual practices ahead of evening qualifying. The track had varying characteristics as the surface steadily heated up throughout the day. Since the green flag flies after 7:30 p.m. ET, the track temps will be dropping below what the teams experienced yesterday.
Tire wear is a foundational concern in the Richmond race strategy. The crew chiefs and engineers need to diagnose yesterday’s performances, assess how to run fast on worn tires, and make adjustments for a night race. Do you think those guys got much sleep last night?
Friday’s Standouts
Our “Mr. Vegas”, Brad Keselowski, posted the fastest lap in qualifying and earned tonight’s pole. He’ll start on the first row with fellow Ford-driver Kevin Harvick right next to him. Three of the top five qualifiers are Fords, with a Chevy and a Toyota mixed in there. As you would expect, nine of the top ten starters are playoff drivers with veteran Jimmie Johnson starting 10th.
We were looking for speed on Friday coupled with experienced teams that now how to tune for short-track night racing. Want to talk about fast in practice? Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Ryan Blaney were all scorching hot in both short and long runs. These guys qualified to start in the 6th, 2nd, and 15th places, respectively.
Who Gets Our Support?
Our early-week race preview pinpointed a few guys that were worthy of a play at Richmond. We already backed Kevin Harvick against Denny Hamlin on the pick ’em matchup line. As noted above, both of these guys were fast on Friday though we stand behind Kevin and the #4 Ford as our top gun tonight. Another early play was Chase Elliott against Erik Jones. Elliott was iffy in practice but earned the 3rd place starting position, ahead of Jones in 16th.
In addition to the early betting support we gave Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick, we circled Martin Truex, Jr. as a Top 5 contender. However, we expressed concerns about a potential lack of value to bet on him. The books have reposted their odds and have Truex at +550 to win, +135 to Top 3, and -400 to Top 10. We’ll pass on the defending Richmond champion and move forward with several more plays to round out our card.
Austin Dillon: Hangin’ Around
We previously circled Dillon as a dark horse driver for Richmond if the proper circumstances and prices became available. At the time the preview article was published, 5Dimes had a limited race slate posted. Without a specific set of matchups to evaluate, we left it at this:
Not only has Dillon been decent as a mid-tier racer this summer, he has improved at Richmond. His finishes hovered in the low 20s in 2014 and 2015; his first two years as a Cup Series racer. In 2016 and 2017, Austin gradually improved to no worst than 21st. His last three races in 2018 and 2019 have registered 15th, 6th, and 6th place finishes. We’ll have to wait until the weekend for the expanded menu to see who he is matched up against. If his #3 Chevy shows decent five- and 15-lap speeds in practice, we’ll look to play him in matchups and a Top 10 bet if it pays +350 or better.
5Dimes expanded its offerings Thursday morning that included several matchups with Dillon. Fellow handicapper @NASCARstyleodds gave out a solid rule of thumb in his latest podcast: don’t take a non-playoff driver in a matchup against a playoff contender…they’re racing two different races. We ruled out half of the eight offerings on Dillon by sticking to the above rule of thumb. It’s hard to disagree with that logic given the different circumstances that playoff and non-playoff teams are working under.
This left plays against Jimmie Johnson, Matt DiBenedetto, and Daniel Suarez. DiBenedetto is a scary driver, as he has shown some flashes of brilliance in the second half of the season while trying to make his mark on the Cup Series. Jimmie Johnson continues to be solid at Richmond, even in his waning career. His current form is lackluster but it’s tough to go against him with Dillon at track where Jimmie has finished no worse than 12th since 2014.
Austin Dillon (-110) over Daniel Suarez
Dillon is a guy who can leave his backers stranded at times. Finishing in the bottom ten seems like an all-too-frequent occurrence for the #3 team. There’s no denying that he brings a lot of risk with him, but we like his steady progress here at Richmond. Contrast that with that of Suarez, who has looked kind of “meh” on this short track lately.
Unfortunately, Dillon did not have a fast car in practice. He struggled in both the 5-lap and 25-lap averages while Suarez looked solid. We locked in Austin against Daniel before Friday’s runs (and after Tuesday’s race preview) and likely lost a good amount of value on the matchup play. As of early Saturday morning, this matchup was not on the board. Dillon could disappoint, but we think his progress at Richmond is the most important factor in this matchup. Given Dillon’s disappointing showing yesterday and a +300 price to Top 10 the race, we won’t double down on him.
Clint Bowyer: Change of Heart
If you’ve been following our NASCAR coverage of the second half of the season, you’ll know that we’ve picked our spots against Clint. Tonight is not the case. Bowyer is disappointed with a 25th place finish at Vegas last week after three straight Top 10s to close out the regular season, severely limiting his chances to make the next playoff round. Clint will be battling emotions after the passing of his grandmother and a rough outing in the desert, all within a week’s time.
Clint Bowyer (-106) to Finish Top 10
The thing we like about Clint tonight is his recent strength at Richmond. Like he said after yesterday’s workouts, racing here is all about balance. The experienced Bowyer finished 3rd in the spring and squeezed his way into the Top 10 in both 2017 races. This is a good spot for him as he starts 5th despite average practice runs. Clint Bowyer can be an emotional racer, but we’re putting our chips behind him to be focused and finish in the Top 10.
Selling High
Kyle Busch: Distracted Driving
Week in and week out, Kyle Busch is at the top of the odds sheet to win the upcoming race. Case in point: Busch is the betting favorite for tonight’s race even after Harvick, Hamlin, and Keselowski looked stronger yesterday. He’s “earned” this clout by being a major factor in nearly every race on the schedule. When he drives angry, he typically makes strong moves on the track. Is it time to call into question his focus?
BetCrushers.com isn’t a “hot take” website. We handicap, we bet, and we let the chips fall where they may. But we have to ask if Kyle is focused on winning this race and winning a NASCAR Championship. Arguably, he’s made some bad decisions in the last two races. He continues to complain about the rules package and his inability to pass cars after going on a tirade on Twitter.
Denny Hamlin (+110) over Kyle Busch
Kyle swept both 2018 Richmond races in between a pair of Top 10 finishes. Nobody’s doubting whether he has the ability. Hell, the guy starts 4th tonight after looking tuned up in practice. Is there value in fading Kyle (again)? We say yes, and are doing so by backing a dialed-in Denny Hamlin against him. Denny worked the Richmond track like a champ Friday and we expect his focus and prowess on this track to be the deciding factors against Busch tonight. The #11 Toyota starts two spots behind the #18 but we’ll take plus-money that this order is reversed after 400 miles.
Ryan Blaney: The Kid’s Got Speed
Ryan Blaney made our short list of impressive drivers in practice yesterday. He was damn fast in the short and long runs, though he will start 15th tonight after a mediocre qualifying lap. Don’t get fooled by this speed though. Richmond is not a good track for Blaney, despite his decent form coming into this weekend. He’s started this race as high as 2nd in his career but has never finished any better than 18th. Could this be his year? We’re betting against it.
Clint Bowyer (-130) over Ryan Blaney
-130 is a hefty price to pay in a NASCAR matchup, considering that a race can change in the blink of an eye for a driver; a tire goes down, the knuckleheads ahead of you get sideways, etc. This matchup involves a pair of playoff drivers heading in opposite directions but with differing levels of experience at Richmond. Blaney has not been able to figure this short track out in seven tries while Bowyer has had periods of off-and-on success. Ryan Blaney has out-dueled Clint Bowyer only twice in his seven Richmond races, supporting the -130 juice on Bowyer.
Final BetCrushers Richmond Betting Card
- Kevin Harvick (-115) over Denny Hamlin
- Chase Elliott (-115) over Erik Jones
- Austin Dillon (-110) over Daniel Suarez
- Clint Bowyer (-106) to Finish Top 10
- Denny Hamlin (+110) over Kyle Busch
- Clint Bowyer (-130) over Ryan Blaney
