PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-2

SEASON RESULTS:
47-45

Week 12 Recap:

A much needed rebound weekend of props to get us above the .500 self-proclaimed Mendoza line as we turned in a 6-2 mark for the weekend. On the heels of a disastrous 1-6, the winning weekend feels like a 99-1 mark in all honesty. There are six regular seasons left, and the only way to notch some solid profit and ROI is to stay hot moving forward. Here’s what happened in week twelve: The most interesting wager was Amari Cooper, who dropped a wide open pass that would have gotten him a cover in regulation. With what looked as thought that might end up costing a loss, the game between the Browns and Buccaneers went into overtime, and Jacoby Brissett hit Cooper on a deep sideline pass which got the cover and an early win. In that same game, after a hot start, rookie Rachaad White cooled off. Fortunately, he notched just enough to get over his yardage total. In the Washington game, we ended up splitting our wagers as Antonio Gibson notched the three catches he needed to get over his total, while Taylor Heinicke did not get his yards, despite getting the team win. DeAndre Hopkins kept rolling with his targets and yards for a win, and Courtland Sutton also kept benefitting from no real other viable receivers for Russell Wilson to throw to. In the primetime games we also split, losing with Randall Cobb, who seemed to hardly be on the field for some reason, but winning late with Michael Pittman in the Monday night contest. Overall, just a sigh of a relief after a winning weekend.

Week 13 Preview:

It’s been a few weeks since we’ve had a quarterback passing total in play, but we’re giving that a shot this week. We’re still keyed in on some running backs, as 2022 has proven to be a little bit of a resurgence for the RB’s as teams have basically all gone to a two deep look on defense. For the second time this season we’re going with two running backs from the same team to hit overs. (It did not work out for us the first time we tried this). All total, we’ve got eight tickets again this week and sure would love to repeat that 6-2 mark if the gambling Gods want to cooperate.

Our Picks:

Derrick Henry – Over 82.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

A pair of heavyweight teams face off when Tennessee travels to Philadelphia looking for a road upset against the Eagles. The biggest heavyweight in the league at running back is Derrick Henry, who enters the contest with what seems like a somewhat low total of just 82.5 yards rushing to break. Henry is coming off of his worst rushing performance of the season since he was shut down in week two in a blowout loss to the Bills. We’re expecting a big rebound against an Eagles team that is allowing over 4.7 yards per rush and has really struggled with big and physical backs, including getting run over by A.J. Dillon a week ago. Henry has an interesting trend this season, as he’s actually been quite a bit better in road games than he has been playing at home. We’re expecting this game to be somewhat close, as indicated by the 4.5 point spread, so Henry should be a factor for all four quarters. We’re expecting around 100 yards for King Henry here, so we’ll go ahead and play the over.

Nick Chubb – Over 94.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you happen to play daily fantasy football, or caught our article on Wednesday, you know that we have Nick Chubb as an absolute must-start this Sunday against the Texans. Houston is dead last in points against, and allow 5 yards per carry to opposing teams. A lot of attention will be on quarterback Deshaun Watson in his first start and return to Houston, but it’s Chubb who should have no problems shining in this matchup. When a quarterback is trying to shake some rust off, his best friend is a strong running game, and Chubb is about as strong as it gets. The Browns are also hefty favorites, so they could be running the ball a lot in the second half. Short of an injury, there really seems to be no path to where Chubb won’t be able to top the century mark against a Texans team that is already making offseason plans.

Kareem Hunt – Over 47.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

There’s not much to add that we didn’t already state above with Nick Chubb in terms of why we like this matchup for the Browns. The reason we want to add Kareem Hunt and go all in, is the fact that the Browns might run away with this game. That would lead to some additional snaps for Hunt on the ground against that same Texans defense. We opted to play his combo rushing and receiving yards because the Browns and Watson might want to work some short passes as he gets re-acclimated to the speed of the NFL game. The last time we tried pairing running backs, neither David Montgomery or Khalil Herbert got over their totals, but we’re not scared to try it again with an even better duo against an even lesser opponent.

Russell Wilson – Under 229.5 Yards Passing (-115)

From what we’ve seen so far this season, fading Russell Wilson seems like the biggest no-brainer across the league. It’s been a disastrous season for both the Broncos and in particular Wilson, who now has forced the conversation about worst NFL trades of all time. The Broncos season is essentially over, and they have to fly across country to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that is coming off of a bad late loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens defense hasn’t been great this season, despite looking great at times, but they should be able to put the clamps on the passing game for the Broncos. For starters, Denver will have trouble running the football, putting some extra pressure on Wilson and the passing game. Denver also enters with both starting wideouts questionable to play and likely somewhat less than 100% if they do suit up. With the Ravens likely to shut that down, it’s tough to see enough yardage coming from other areas for Wilson to get over his total, even if it is a low number. If you’re a trends and analytics bettor, this one might not be for you, as Wilson has bested that mark in 7 of his 11 starts. We’re on the fade train the rest of the way, especially with this matchup, so hopefully the Ravens don’t give up anything long and Wilson stays under the total.

Dak Prescott – Over 243.5 Yards Passing (-115)

On the flip side, if you like trends and numbers, this is a wager you might like. Dak Prescott has been pretty darn good since returning from the Cowboys bye week, as Dallas continues to roll. In those three games Prescott has thrown for 265, 276 and 261, respectively. That consistency should hold up when the Cowboys host the Colts in a game they should be able to win at home. The concern here is the Cowboys get up big early and take their foot off the gas in the passing game. We’ll still give Dak the benefit of the doubt, as the Colts are a team that is a little better at stopping the run, as opposed to the pass. Indianapolis has had some issues beyond Stephon Gilmore in the secondary, and the Cowboys have enough weapons to threaten other areas, even if Gilmore is able to hold up in his matchups. Keep an eye on the running backs for Dallas as well, as they should contribute quite a bit in the passing game.

Aaron Jones – Over 84.5 Yards Rushing & Receiving (-115)

You could make the argument that the Packers also have two running backs that will hit their over totals in their matchup against the Bears. A.J. Dillon is certainly a viable option in this somewhat of a timeshare backfield, but we’re going to go with Aaron Jones in this matchup for two main reasons. First, his ability as a pass catcher, and also his dominant history against the Bears. Jones averaged almost 9 yards per carry in their first meeting this season en route to 132 yards rushing, and added 38 receiving. And this was with the Bears not eliminated from the playoffs, and with a few solid defensive players who are no longer on the roster. Additionally, the Bears can actually score some points of their own on offense this go around, so this could be a little more of a shootout then initially anticipated. With Aaron Rodgers pretty banged up, Jones could be a hot target in the passing game, and we could even see Jones and Dillon on the field at the same time. Considering Jones had 170 total yards in their first meeting, and we only need half of that in this one, we’ll take his combined yardage total all day long.

Chris Godwin – Over 67.5 Yards Passing (-115)

Would it surprise you to hear that Chris Godwin is third in the league in targets over the last 8 weeks? Tom Brady loves the quick passing game, which is where Chris Godwin does his damage, and as he’s returned from his knee injury he has looked better and better. The Buccaneers face the thorn in the side Saints in an important NFC South matchup as they try to hang onto their unimpressive first place status. The Saints secondary has been a mess this season, largely because Marshon Lattimore has been unavailable with an abdominal injury. He may finally return this week, but he’ll be renewing his rivalry with Mike Evans primarily if he does. That means Brady may look in the direction of Godwin even more as he’ll have a clear matchup advantage. Godwin has cracked this yardage total in 4 of his last 6 games since proclaiming he finally feels healthy. New Orleans has had the number of the Bucs and Brady, but this Saints defense isn’t the same intimidating group we’ve seen since Brady become a Buccaneer. Look for a lot of catches and yards for Godwin in this matchup.

Christian McCaffrey – Over 38.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

One of the more interesting games of the weekend pits the high-flying offense of the Dolphins versus the stingy defense of the 49ers in San Francisco. We’re keying in on the other side of the ball however, and looking to play one of the 49ers many big weapons. Christian McCaffrey has paid instant dividends since arriving in SF, and he’ll need to be a big part of the game plan if the Niners are going to win this important game. McCaffrey is the most versatile back in the league, and his receiving could be the difference in this game for the 49ers. In recent weeks, largely because they’ve been up big, the Dolphins rush defense has been pretty strong. With some season ending injuries in their secondary, they have shown some vulnerability in the passing game, including in the screen game and with backs out of the backfield. Assuming the Dolphins continue to put up some points, Jimmy Garoppolo will have to throw the football. He’s done a nice job spreading it around, and has also worked McCaffrey in the mix from day one. Over the past two weeks, Eli Mitchell returned to the lineup for the 49ers and took quite a few snaps from McCaffrey. However, he’s now back on injured reserve, which should lead to more snaps for McCaffrey. Look for the star back to get some designed throws, as well as leaking out of the backfield as a safe target for Garoppolo in this game.

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