PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
7-3

SEASON RESULTS:
27-27

Week 7 Recap:

The week 7 recap is a wild combination of optimism, frustration and major relief. Let’s start with the relief piece as the strong 7-3 mark finally got us back to respectability, bringing our season total to .500. That still leaves us in the red with vig, but it’s a great step in the right direction to what will ultimately and hopefully be a successful campaign when the season ends. Next we’ll talk about the frustration of what could have been, as we were oh so close to a perfect 10-0 card sweep. Our three losses were all very winnable. We lost reception bets with both Alec Pierce and Robert Tonyan, both of whom had catches taken away via penalties. Losing each by the .5 hook that way is really a bit of a gut punch. Our other loss was tough to swallow because we were definitely on the right side, we just didn’t get the result we wanted. David Montgomery was being held in check and his under probably would have held if the game script went the way had thought with the Patriots getting up big. Instead, it was the Bears who were up big, and Montgomery got a slew of second half carries against a defeated defense leading to him getting over his total. As far as our wins, they actually hit pretty early in most cases. That includes Travis Etienne, Jr. breaking a long run, Chris Godwin hitting his total in the third quarter, and some big games from Kenneth Walker III, Josh Jacobs and Gerald Everett. Our most fortunate cover was the over for Jets running back Breece Hall, who broke off a 64 yard run before exiting with a season-ending ACL injury. Browns tight end David Njoku was also injured, but had surpassed his catch total in the first half before leaving the contest. All of this lead us to be optimistic for the rest of the season as it feels as though we’re finally finding our footing.

Week 8 Preview:

After a full card a week ago, we originally figured we’d have a smaller selection for week number eight. After combing through matchups and statistics it’s actually our largest slate to date, as we’ve got a dozen plays punched. The approach mirrors last week’s as we’re riding an under that has cashed for us twice, but are rolling with overs on everything else. Despite the large card, we couldn’t find any quarterbacks we had strong date or opinions on. It’s all running backs and wide receivers this week, and they also mirror our Daily Fantasy Football teams. We’ve got a pair of Miami Dolphins and some opposing receivers in the Cardinals and Vikings game. A couple of young running backs and some usual suspect stars round out our selections.

Our Picks:

Derrick Henry – Over 99.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Tennessee Titans head west to face their division rivals in Houston looking to extend their lead in the AFC South. There are some big questions for the Titans leading up to the game, including the health of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is nursing an ankle injury. If you’re searching for some certainty, look no further than running back Derrick Henry, who is on a streak of three consecutive 100 yard performances. Henry figures to be the centerpiece of the Tennessee offense as usual and has an absolutely juicy matchup against the very soft Houston defense. The Texans rank 31st in YPC allowed and have been pretty much gashed in every game they’ve played. If that isn’t enough to peak your interest, take a look at the last three meetings in which Henry has faced Houston. He’s rushed for over 200 yards in all three, with 250 yards in his last appearance. The Texans shouldn’t be running away with this game so expect Henry to be active for all four quarters. If he doesn’t top 100 yards in this game to cash this prop, color us seriously surprised.

Travis Etienne, Jr. – Over 71.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Jaguars went from unofficially featuring Travis Etienne, Jr. to formally making him the focal point of their running game when they shipped off James Robinson to the Jets. It makes sense after three straight games averaging over 7 yards per carry and his first 100 yard performance in week seven versus the Giants. Etienne will be across the pond where the Jaguars play their usual London game against the struggling Denver Broncos. At first thought, you may think this is a tough matchup for the running back against a top five defense in the league, but as always, you have to dig a little deeper. The Broncos have been really strong versus the pass, but no so much against the run. They’ve been allowing over 4.7 In what figures to be a lower scoring contest, Etienne should see a lot of work in this game. Let’s see how he does in his first international travel game.

DeAndre Hopkins – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

The season looked bleak for the Cardinals after the first few weeks, but there have been some signs of life over the past month. Kyler Murray has taken on a bigger load of the offense and now has his favorite receiving weapon back in the lineup. Six games had to feel like an eternity for DeAndre Hopkins as he watched the Cards’ passing game plod along. Hopkins returned a week ago and wasted no time getting back in on the action getting a hefty 14 targets and securing 10 catches for over 100 yards. Sunday he has a nice matchup against a Vikings secondary that has had challenges defending wide receivers. With Robbie Anderson still not fully integrated into the offense, and James Conner ruled out, Hopkins is going to be heavily involved in the game plan. It seems like the books are going with a consistent 6.5 number to start for Hopkins, which offers a lot of great value in our opinion. He should find a way to go over that number.

Justin Jefferson – Over 89.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

After a couple of “un-Jefferson like” statistics, Justin Jefferson reminded everyone that he’s very much in consideration for best receiver in the league with three straight 100 yard days. The Vikings have not run the ball quite as well as many expected which should continue against an improving Cardinals defense. That puts a lot of workload on to Kirk Cousins and the receivers for Minnesota. Jefferson should be in line for another double-digit target game, which should produce some nice numbers. The Cardinals play a lot of man coverage, and even though they’ll roll the coverage towards Jefferson, he’s an absolutely man-beater. If the Cardinals can’t get major pressure on Cousins, he and Jefferson should connect early and often in what is lining up for yet another 100 yard performance.

Najee Harris – Under 49.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

We’re 2-0 fading Najee Harris this season and we’re hoping the third time stays a charm as we’re taking his under yardage against the Eagles. In the battle of Pennsylvania, the Eagles are 10 point favorites and this could be a spot where they build a really big lead on the Steelers. That would force them to abandon the running game and offers little opportunities for Harris on the ground. For him to eclipse 50 yards, he’d likely need a lot of carries as he’s only eclipsed 4 yards per carry in one game so far this season. Including a few games where he’s averaged under 3 yards per tote. Even though the Eagles aren’t quite as tough against the run as they’ve been in previous years, they have a clear advantage in the trenches against the Steelers subpar offensive line. Unless the Steelers can get up on the Eagles, Harris should be mostly a non-factor.

Raheem Mostert – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Our value Star of the Week in DFS this week is non other than Raheeem Mostert, who we’re banking on to have a really big game against the Lions. It’s been another frustrating season for Detroit, and our preseason concerns of their defense have proven to be valid. Other than a few bright spots rushing the passer from Aiden Hutchinson, there’s been very little resistance in stopping opposing offenses from this Lion defense. The secondary has been a problem and they’re going to have their hands full trying to matchup with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside. This should leave a lot of room to run for the speedy Mostert, who has started to come on in recent weeks after wrestling away the starting job from Chase Edmonds. In that span Edmonds has looked really bad running and receiving, while Mostert is showing the burst that makes him a home run threat every time he touches the ball. He’s gotten at least 14 carries each of the last four weeks and should feast on the fast track on the turf. Anything less than 100 yards and a touchdown in this matchup should be considered disappointing for the Dolphins new back.

Tyreek Hill – Over 86.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

As mentioned above, the Lions have some serious matchup problems against the receivers for the Miami Dolphins, and in particular Tyreek Hill. Detroit is without 3 safeties, and other than the fast improving Jeff Okudah are not particularly talented at the corner position. As most teams are forced to do against Miami, they’ll have to play some really soft zone coverage. People generally believe Tyreek Hill is a threat against man coverage, and while that’s true, he can absolutely tear a zone apart. The same can be said for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, when he can make the initial read and the window to throw is open. Hill’s speed can often allow him to take what would be an 8 yard reception for most receivers and turn it into a 30 yard gain. The matchup here is really simple, you have a ridiculously fast and talented wideout playing against a poor defense overall, with a less than amazing secondary. Hill has alternated 100 yard games so far this season, and this is the week for another explosive performance. We’re taking the over for sure.

Tony Pollard – Over 73.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Not only have a lot of Cowboy fans been screaming for Tony Pollard to be the featured running back in Dallas, but most of America has been suggesting this as well. Pollard will get his opportunity on Sunday against the Bears with Ezekiel Elliott slated to miss the contest. The Bears defense played well in primetime holding down the Patriots offense in New England, but this unit isn’t that great as a whole. Throw in the fact they also just traded away locker room favorite Robert Quinn, and they’re clearly in a rebuilding mode. Allowing nearly 4.8 yards per carry is not good when trying to play against a team who has the objective of outmuscling you in the trenches. Enter the impressive Pollard, who has three games this season where he has received double-digit carries. He’s topped 80 yards in all three of those despite his heaviest workload being 13 carries. Pollard should see closer to 20 carries in this game, which would mean he’d really just need to average around 4 yards per carry to eclipse his yardage total. This is his time to shine, and he should take advantage of the opportunity.

Kenneth Walker III – Over 71.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

If you haven’t had a chance to watch Kenneth Walker III run the football, he’s a bit of a throwback runner. He’ll look to use his combination of strength, vision and speed when the Seahawks host the New York Giants this weekend. Walker exploded last week, and with just a slightly higher yardage total in week 8, he has a great chance to exceed his yardage total again. The Giants are one of four teams to have already allowed over 1000 yards rushing on the season and give up a league worst 5.7 yards per rush. Pete Carroll absolutely loves to run the football, so he’s going to take what the defense will give them and won’t force the passing game if the running game is successful. As far as touches go, at this point, Walker sees about as many as any running back in the league, which will lead to some nice statlines throughout the season, and hopefully on Sunday.

Chris Olave – Over 64.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The New Orleans Saints will once again be without starting veteran receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry in their home matchup against the Raiders. That means we should continue seeing a lot of passes thrown in the direction of first round pick Chris Olave once again. Andy Dalton gets the starting nod, which is good news for Olave as the Red Rifle targeted him 14 times a week ago on the way to the rookie’s second 100 yard game. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders defense has underwhelming, particularly at getting sacks and pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dalton still has the ability to make throws when he has time in the pocket, which he should have if the Saints can contain Maxx Crosby off the edge. The play here is really about attrition, as by default Olave should be able to make some plays in this game. Especially if this game ends up being high-scoring, which we’re anticipating, Olave will go over.

Amari Cooper – Over 54.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Nothing like some orange on Halloween night as the Bengals and Browns renew their rivalry on Monday Night Football. The big news heading into the game is the injury to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who may miss the next 4-6 weeks with a hip injury. The Bengals have some other weapons, but it’s the main receiver for the Cleveland Browns that we’re targeting in this ballgame. There’s a few reasons we like Amari Cooper to go over his yardage total, which is set at a very manageable 54.5 yards receiving. First, Cooper has always been a “homefield” receiver, for whatever reason. Historically, he simply performs better in home games as opposed to road games. That’s held true again so far this season as the two duds that Cooper has put up were both on the road. Beyond that, the Browns will be without tight end David Njoku, who had emerged as a legitimate receiving threat for quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Without Njoku, that could force a couple of extra looks in Cooper’s direction. And finally, the Bengals have not been able to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, outside of Trey Hendrickson. If the Browns can protect Brissett, it will give Cooper time to get the separation he needs versus the Bengals defensive backs.

Stefon Diggs – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)

Sunday Night Football will show a lot of Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen during their broadcast, understandably so. This game could take on more of a defensive feel as opposed to a shootout based on the rosters. Of all of the weapons on both teams, Stefon Diggs is the most sure bet to be heavily involved in the game. The Packers boast a talented secondary, however the Bills work a lot of plays specifically for Diggs. In a game where Josh Allen will need to be patient and may not have a lot of opportunities deep down the field, the short passing game could help serve as an extended function of the running game for the Bills. The yardage may not be there for Diggs, but the targets and receptions should. Don’t be surprised if Diggs ends up with a stat line that shows 8 or 9 catches for 75 yards on Sunday night.

Follow us @TheBetCrushers on Twitter