BETCRUSHERS PREVIOUS WEEKS RESULTS
Yanni – 7-7
JJ – 9-5
BETCRUSHERS SEASON RESULTS TO DATE
Yanni – 85-75-1
JJ – 82-78-1
PREVIOUS WEEK RECAP
The early games started out a little bumpy for the BetCrushers before rebounding in the late afternoon and prime-time contests. JJ put together a nice week at four games over .500 while Yanni treaded water with a 7-7 week. JJ got a win with the Bills, and cruised with the Ravens, while Yanni lost taking a chance with the Dolphins and Texans. The Broncos stumped us both as we were on the Vikings and the Falcons second straight dominant performance tripped us up as we were on the Panthers. We won with the Bengals and had actually debated making them an official play, but just couldn’t do it based on how poorly they’ve played this season. It was a “public” week overall and we both benefited and got burned by that, but feel good about where we sit looking to make some more improvement in week twelve.
vs. 
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-4) at HOUSTON TEXANS (6-4)
Thursday – November 21st – 8:20pm
Spread: Houston Texans -3
Over/Under: 45.5
Public Money Percentage: Houston 52%
The Breakdown:
More than likely the Thursday Night Football game between the Colts and Texans will determine who ends up winning the AFC South. Houston is looking to bounce back from a beating at the hands of the Ravens and Indianapolis is fresh off their own stomping that they gave to the Jaguars.
We’ll admit we were pretty surprised to see the Colts absolutely dismantle the Jaguars a week ago, especially playing without some key contributors. They’ll have to do that again this week as they lost Marlon Mack to a fractured hand as he was having one of the best games of his career. On the positive side, it looks like T.Y. Hilton will return to the lineup which is a huge boost to the skill positions that quarterback Jacoby Brissett has to work with. Speaking of Brissett, he just continues to play at a quiet high level and find ways to get his football team W’s. The Texans defense was dismantled by Lamar Jackson so you know in this critical game they will be playing at their best. The question with this defense is, how good can they really be, particularly without their leader J.J. Watt? The Colts will look to get their backup running backs going, but it could be Hilton or perhaps one of their tight ends, as Houston has struggled to cover opposing tight ends that need to make plays Thursday. (Eric Ebron may not be able to go). Without Watt, the advantage in the trenches has to go to the Colts offensive line that continues to play well both with run blocking and pass blocking.
You can look back and say it isn’t surprising that the Texans defense was lit up against Baltimore, however it was absolutely a little stunning to see them struggle to get anything going on offense. In fairness, they should have had an early first and goal as we all saw and agree DeAndre Hopkins was mugged at the goal line in what should have been an obvious pass interference call. Maybe that changed the trajectory of the game, and the fact remains Houston could do very little the rest of the way. It won’t be a walk in the park this week either as Carlos Hyde will have his work cut out for him against the Colts run defense that continues to play well. Houston needs to rely on Deshaun Watson to use his athletic talents to make plays outside of the pocket and with his legs. This game is too important to force the passing game if it’s not there. DeAndre Hopkins will make his share of catches as he always does, but make no mistake about it, this game is about Deshaun Watson carrying this team to a crucial divisional win.
Yanni’s Pick – Texans -3 (Texans 26, Colts 21)
JJ’s Pick – Colts +3 (Texans 26, Colts 23)
vs. 
DENVER BRONCOS (3-7) at BUFFALO BILLS (7-3)
Sunday – Novmber 24th – 1:00pm
Spread: Buffalo Bills -4
Over/Under: 37.5
Public Money Percentage: Buffalo 61%
The Breakdown:
If you’re into the classic type of NFL football this game is for you as two teams that want to run the ball and hit you on defense square off when the Broncos face the Bills. Denver is coming off of a crushing defeat where they squandered a 20 point lead to the Vikings, and the Bills return home after taking care of business and finding some offense against the hapless Dolphins in Miami.
It was a tale of two halves for the Broncos last week as their offense was fast, creative and dynamic early on before becoming a little boring and predictable later in the game against Minnesota. The positives were that Brandon Allen played a decent game against a good defense, Phillip Lindsay found success on the ground, and Courtland Sutton continues to evolve into a quality wide receiver. When you look at this matchup against the Bills it sets up nicely for Phillip Lindsay as the Bills have struggled to slow down powerful running backs, which is exactly what Lindsay is despite his height. For the Broncos to win this game they’re going to need to run the ball plain and simple. The Bills defense has been as good as anyone in the league at defending the pass and Tre White will likely draw, and slow down Sutton at wide receiver. The Bills pass rush will play a big part in whether or not they can dominate the Broncos as well. The Bills grouping of Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy and Shaq Lawson have all played solidly yet not spectacularly all season. If they can generate pressure and or turnovers with Denver’s young QB it could be a long day, however if the Broncos offensive line can hold up, this game should stay close throughout.
Brian Daboll the Bills offensive coordinator got the fans and media off of his back for a week as his offense put up 37 points and Josh Allen was named AFC Player of the Week. The Bills are hoping it was a stepping game for Allen where he can continue to build and develop into a top tier franchise quarterback. Let’s slow down for just a minute as we have to look at who Allen was carving up a week ago in Miami. Allen will need to be sharp as Denver has played surprisingly well on defense all season despite not having Bradley Chubb in the lineup. One of the most effective pieces of the Buffalo offense has been Allen’s ability to use his legs when necessary to convert first downs and in the red zone. Denver’s match-zone will make it tough for Allen to have that success as he’s generally been exploiting man to man coverage to break his runs. As is the case with Brandon Allen and any young quarterback, the Bills will also benefit if they’re able to run the ball against the Broncos, something that most teams have not done a great job with this season. Devin Singletary has taken over RB1 duties and has the shiftiness and big play ability the team needs, yet it could be Frank Gore who sees a little more work this week if this does indeed end up shaping up to be a smashmouth football game. In the receiving game, the Bills got a huge day from the super consistent speedster John Brown who will likely see a lot of Chris Harris, Jr. in the Denver secondary. Look for Cole Beasley to have a big impact with short quick passes as he could potentially see 8 or 9 targets this weekend. And of course you can’t talk about a Bronco game without mentioning the importance of containing Von Miller, something the Bills will try to do with two relatively young tackles in Dion Dawkins and the rookie Cody Ford.
KEY STATS – Over 60% of the public money is on Buffalo
If you’re simply looking at records laying four points doesn’t seem bad as fans were watching the Bills steamroll the Dolphins a week ago all while watching the Broncos completely collapse in a game they should have won. Look closely at each teams games, and not just the fact that the Bills have still yet to defeat a team with a winning record. The Broncos could realistically be 7-2 at this point in the season had things fell their way a little differently. You can call that “ifs and buts” all you’d like, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Broncos are a better team than their record indicates, while the Bills are basically the opposite. Throw in the fact the Bills have their only nationally televised game coming up four days later with a trip to Dallas on Thanksgiving and they may not be entirely ready for the “meager” Broncos. Unless the Bills can force an abundance of turnovers, which is something they haven’t done much of this year, this game will probably come down to the wire. Getting more than the key number of three in a game like that is the right move as it’s very possible the winner here ends up ahead by three points as time expires.
Yanni’s Pick – Broncos +4 (Bills 21, Broncos 20)
JJ’s Pick – Broncos +4 (Bills 21, Broncos 17)
vs. 
NEW YORK GIANTS (2-8) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-6)
Sunday -November 24th – 1:00pm
Spread: Chicago Bears -6
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: New York Giants 57%
The Breakdown:
It looks like the Bears will be rolling with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback as they return home off of a tough, most likely season-ending loss, against the Rams. The Giants are looking to find a little of the momentum they had in Daniel Jones first starts that has fizzled in recent weeks.
Competitive football players never want to be taken off of the field and Saquon Barkley seems to fall into that category. Everyone likes to play couch general manager and coach, and that includes us. Barkley has not looked like the explosive player we watched in the first two weeks of the season and it’s a reasonable question to wonder if they should just shut him down for the season? They’re apparently not planning to do that, so for the sake of this week’s game we’ll have to figure that Barkley will be a focal point of the Giants offense as usual. Whether or not they can get the running game going will determine whether or not they can be competitive against a tough Chicago defense on the road. The Bears have done a nice job again this year defending the pass, yet have struggled at times against opposing runners. Coming off of his worst rushing day as a pro, Barkley should have at least a bit of a rebound in a game that will be a running type of affair on both sides. Some good news in the passing game as Sterling Shepherd returns at WR, and some bad news as TE Evan Engram will not be in the lineup. The Giants have to be a little concerned about their tackles including Nate Solder who is really struggling rather than improving in this offense. Against Khalil Mack and this defense, they could really make things tough for Daniel Jones.
As mentioned, Mitch Trubisky gets the nod for the Bears and he couldn’t ask for a better spot to be in taking on a Giants defense that hasn’t been able to slow anyone down. We watched Trubisky look solid against a similar Lions defense so it won’t be a surprise if we see a good game from the embattled quarterback. The Giants have also struggled against the run, which is what the Bears offense is built off of. David Montgomery should enjoy at least moderate success which would be the best thing possible for Trubisky and this offense. With the Giants “rebuilt” defensive line including Leonard Williams, how they compete against a banged up Chicago offensive line will be another key in this game.
You can really make an argument both ways on this game which is probably why we’re split on our take and why we’re not betting it. For all realistic purposes this game means more in evaluations than it does in the standings as Trubisky and others are essentially auditioning for what their futures might look like. The Bears should most likely find a win at the end of this one, it’s really just a matter of whether or not it will be greater or less than a six point victory.
Yanni’s Pick – Giants +6 (Bears 24, Giants 21)
JJ’s Pick – Bears -6 (Bears 24, Giants 14)
vs. 
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-10)
Sunday – November 24th – 1:00pm
Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Over/Under: 38.5
Public Money Percentage: Pittsburgh 52%
The Breakdown:
Mike Tomlin leads his short-handed squad against one of their rivals that is trying to figure out where they can scratch together their first win for head coach Zac Taylor. Coming off of a close loss in Oakland, can the Bengals find a way to defeat the team that has completely owned them?
When facing one of the worst defenses in the league you’d have to feel pretty good about your chances to put up points. This could be a bit of an exception as the Steelers enter this game with several deficiencies on their offensive roster. We know that they’re already on their backup quarterback, but it looks like they’ll also be without their top running back and wide receiver as both James Conner and Juju Smith-Schuster will be be able to play on Sunday. The offensive line will be missing their leader as center Maurkiese Pouncey will be serving the first game of his two game suspension for defending his QB in the Thursday night chaos 10 days ago. Against the Browns, missing these pieces, Pittsburgh really struggled to move the ball at all. Bad defensive opponent or not, they could struggle again this week. The benefit they’ve had is some time to prep with the adjusted lineup which should help a little bit. Jaylen Samuels will get a lot of work in this game as even without Pouncey, this offensive line should be able to handle the Bengals front seven enough to run the football.
On the offensive side for the Bengals they welcome back Cordy Glenn at left tackle which even though he will be rusty, should improve what has been a terrible unit all season long. Joe Mixon has put in some admirable performances the past two weeks running behind that offensive line. It will be tough for him to get things going against the Steelers defense so don’t be surprised if he goes back to some of those frustrating performances that he suffered earlier in the season. Ryan Finley has not played terribly in his two starts since taking over for Andy Dalton, but this is a really tough spot for him against T.J. Watt and the pass rush of the Steelers. With their ballhawking safety Minkah Fitzpatrick there is some potential for some negative plays for the Bengals offense here. With Pittsburghs offense potentially limited, they may in fact need the defense to make some big plays to help them score.
The Steelers still believe they an make an improbable playoff run and this is a game they obviously have to have to keep that dream alive. With the injuries/suspensions on the Pittsburgh offense, the Bengals think they have a legitimate shot to get their first win. Throw in the fact that these teams know each other well and this is basically the Bengals game of the year and this one could end up close. If you’re brave enough to bet on a bad team like the Bengals and can get +7, this would be the time to give them a chance.
Yanni’s Pick – Bengals +7 (Steelers 20, Bengals 16)
JJ’s Pick – Bengals +7 (Steelers 24, Bengals 23)
vs. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-8) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-6)
Sunday – November 24th – 1:00pm
Spread: Cleveland Browns -10.5
Over/Under: 45
Public Money Percentage: Miami 54%
The Breakdown:
There wouldn’t be a ton of interest in seeing what happens in this AFC tilt with the exception of the fact that people are curious to see how the Browns will respond after the Myles Garrett helmet-swinging debacle from last Thursday. The Dolphins continue to play hard despite their record and whether or not they can leave the sunny skies of South Florida and carry that effort into the gray skies of Cleveland is anyone’s guess at this point.
As crazy as it sounds, and despite the totals in the win column, this is likely Ryan Fitzpatrick’s best and most impressive season in the league. Playing behind an offensive line sorely lacking in talent, with no running game to speak of, and minus some weapons at the skill position, he continues to push ahead and has even had the Dolphins competitive in most of their games. If you’re looking at how the Dolphins might be able to score against the Browns, you have to do some serious searching. It’s actually looking at their opponent that provides some optimism on how they’ll be able to get some points on the board. The Browns defense had started to play a little better over the last month or so, but they will be missing some really important pieces, including their best player in the suspended Garrett. The loss of Morgan Burnett was somewhat lost with what was going on with the defensive line, however that’s a big blow to their secondary. That’s not to suggest that the Dolphins are going to have an easy go of it by any stretch, just that they’ll be able to move the ball a bit.
The Browns offense started on fire against the Steelers hitting big plays and dominating at the line of scrimmage before they slid into a little rut. Baker Mayfield really said it well when he said that the Browns need to play a consistent and complete game from start to finish. Luckily for them, they’ll have a chance to do that against a defense that is just flat out not competitive against superior competition. Josh Allen earned AFC Player of the Week honors against Miami going up and down the field with an ease that the Bills haven’t seen in a long time offensively. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are set up to have huge days on the ground and this could be a spot where Odell Beckham Jr. puts up the statistics that fans and fantasy owners expected when he joined the team in the offseason.
The end of game fight last week (and win against the Steelers) actually seems to have re-energized the Browns organization and fanbase. We’re expecting the Browns to come out fast and play some inspired football on both sides of the ball. The missing starters on the defensive side of the ball should allow the Dolphins to at least keep this somewhat of a game for a while. Ultimately, the breakdown of this game is pretty simple. With a few extra days of rest and preparation and a renewed focus, the Browns offense should have their best game of the season against a completely outmatched Miami defense. We got burned a week ago with a teased over with the Browns, but we’re fully expecting them to hit the over this go around.
Yanni’s Pick – Browns -10.5 (Browns 34, Dolphins 16)
JJ’s Pick – Browns -10.5 (Browns 31, Dolphins 19)
vs. 
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-7) at ATLANTA FALCONS (3-7)
Sunday – November 24th- 1:00pm
Spread: Atlanta Falcons -4
Over/Under: 51.5
Public Money Percentage: Atlanta 56%
The Breakdown:
After two very impressive and very unexpected divisional road victories, the Atlanta Falcons head back home to face another NFC South foe. Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both knotted with 3-7 records, although one team is clearly trending up while the other is falling backwards.
It seems like this is a topic that is discussed weekly as we wonder what the future holds for Jameis Winston in a Tampa Bay uniform? Head coach Bruce Arians has been supportive of Winston, however at this stage if he hasn’t been “fixed”, it’s hard to imagine that he ever can be. A matchup against the Falcons would have been looked at as a favorable opportunity to boost his case, except all of a sudden the Falcons defense looks unstoppable amassing 11 sacks and 4 interceptions the past two weeks. Credit head coach Dan Quinn for recognizing that he needed to turn some play calling and scheming over to his assistants, which certainly seems to have made a big difference. It’s a pretty simple breakdown as whether or not the Falcons defense can continue to force turnovers versus Winston will be the determining factor in who ends up walking away with a win.
With the Falcons offense suddenly taking a back seat to their defense it’s still worth noting that Matt Ryan has been playing some pretty good football overall. He’ll be without Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper which makes things a little tougher, but as long as he’s got Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley on the outside he should find enough success throwing down the field as TB has struggled against the deep ball all season. Another piece that’s been a little lost during the defensive resurgence for Atlanta is how well their offensive line has played in recent weeks. It may be tough without Freeman against what has been a tough Bucs run defense all season, but if that line can hold up against the pass rush, Ryan should have another successful day.
This line seems to be just about right so not a lot to make us lean one way or the other. Based on the drastic improvement of the Falcons defense, we’ll give a slight edge to Atlanta, although as almost all handicappers agree, trying to account for Jameis Winston is darn near impossible.
Yanni’s Pick – Falcons -4 (Falcons 34, Buccaneers 28)
JJ’s Pick – Falcons -4 (Falcons 28, Buccaneers 24)
vs. 
CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-2)
Sunday – November 24th – 1:00pm
Spread: New Orleans Saints -10
Over/Under: 47
Public Money Percentage: New Orleans 59%
The Breakdown:
A virtual must-win game for the Carolina Panthers as they look to bounce back from a miserable performance last week against the Falcons. The Saints regained their elite form and are building their resume for the playoffs and seedings.
The folks in Charlotte are slowly backtracking on their calls to move on from Cam Newton has Kyle Allen has had a really rough stretch likely putting the playoffs out of their reach. Expecting him to get back on track in New Orleans is a tall task and likely not one that is going to happen. As usual, the plan for Carolina will be to give the ball to their best player Christian McCaffrey and ride him as far as he can take them. Even though McCaffrey has had success against pretty much everyone he has faced, he could find the sledding a little rough against a team that really understands how to match up against him. That will put a lot of pressure back on Allen to find some plays in the passing game in another area where the matchups are not in his favor. With the noise in the dome, the Saints defensive line could cause some havoc on Allen, particularly coming off of his worst game as a pro throwing four interceptions.
For the first time since early in the season the Saints where able to get Alvin Kamara going last week which is really encouraging for them as he’ll be needed in the postseason. When you look at this matchup, this is another great opportunity to utilize Kamara in the running game and in space. The Panthers lead the league in sacks and bring a lot of pressure which a veteran like Drew Brees will invite. some screen passes and checkdowns could lead to another big game for Kamara. In the passing game, we’ll assume Michael Thomas will catch his usual dozen passes to keep the chains moving. One thing to make note of in this game and for the rest of the season is the impact that losing Andrus Peat on the offensive line will have on the Saints. It hasn’t hurt them yet as NO has proven once again the importance of having depth at all positions.
Getting ten points with a quality team like the Panthers makes taking them very appealing and seems like the obvious smart play. Yanni is going more off of a hunch than analytics here since we’re not betting it in thinking the Saints are going to have their way, while JJ is taking the smart play and the points.
Yanni’s Pick – Saints -10 (Saints 29, Panthers 17)
JJ’s Pick – Panthers +10 (Saints 28, Panthers 19)
vs. 
DETROIT LIONS (3-6-1) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-9)
Sunday – November 24th – 1:00pm
Spread: Detroit Lions -3.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Public Money Percentage: Detroit 64%
The Breakdown:
In one of the less marquee games of the weekend Jeff Driskel leads the Lions against Dwayne Haskins and the Redskins as each team is on a current losing slide. It’s doom and gloom in Washington as the organization is at an all-time low and could really use a win in a game where they’re only slight underdogs.
Kudos to Jeff Driskel for putting the Lions in position to take down the Cowboys as he played a pretty strong game throughout. Driskel will be at the helm again and will be looking to spread the field out with his weapons to take advantage of a Redskins secondary that has been up and down this year. The Lions have a clear advantage in the passing game, as they usually do, which they’ll need as it might be tough for them to find a lot of room running the football with their injuries. It’s possibly the least attractive match to watch this weekend, but the Lions offensive line against the Redskins defensive line will be one of the most important battles in the trenches. At least important in determining the outcome of the game, maybe not overall.
You’ve got to feel for Dwayne Haskins if you saw the video of him imploring his offensive line to block somebody last week. That line was not able to do anything in the running game, and Haskins was under duress throughout the ballgame. The good news for Haskins and that line is that the Lions have not been good defensively at all which should give them a little bit of breathing room. The skill positions are of course limited as usual as rookie WR Terry McLaurin will likely draw Darius Slay in coverage meaning someone else is going to need to make some plays. Maybe Adrian Peterson or Derrius Guice can help in the running game or out of the backfield if Haskins and Bill Callahan can stay patient enough.
It seems like a no-brainer that the Lions should be able to take care of business against a team that is completely struggling in a stadium that has basically turned on them and the organization. We’ll rarely recommend wagering on a game with two teams that are playing in a basically meaningless game, and this is no exception. The Lions are clearly a better and more talented team, but we’re on opposite sides with our pick here.
Yanni’s Pick – Redskins +3.5 (Lions 20, Redskins 17)
JJ’s Pick – Lions -3.5 (Lions 31, Redskins 21)
vs. 
OAKLAND RAIDERS (6-4) at NEW YORK JETS (3-7)
Sunday – November 24th 1:00pm
Spread: Oakland Raiders -3
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: Oakland 61%
The Breakdown:
A good test for the Oakland Raiders as they hit the road against a Jets team that has found some rhythm and had some success the past couple of weeks. If the Raiders want to be a playoff team this is the type of game that they need to win, while the Jets want to become what they thought they would be, a little better late than never.
We brought it up a week ago and it’s worth repeating that Derek Carr and the Oakland offense are near the top of the leaders in the league. We’ll raise our hand and say that we didn’t expect that at the beginning of the season, considering the loss of Antonio Brown and the new pieces that were put together. Carr has an opportunity to keep the offense rolling against a Jets defense that has been as up and down as any team in the league this season. We’ve seen the NYJ look like a shutdown defense at times, and we’ve seen them lit up by teams like the Dolphins on other occasions. The Jets will be keyed on on stopping Josh Jacobs and the running game and how well they can make that happen will be a big factor in how well Oakland does Sunday. Darren Waller has been quiet in recent weeks after an explosive first half of the season and this is a perfect spot for him to have a big performance. If Jacobs can get the safeties up in run support Waller will have a really big game. The Jets had hoped to be a physical team on the defensive line but injuries have really hurt their ability to be the bully that they had hoped to be. That could be a big problem as the Raiders offensive line is back to playing about as well as any O-line in the league.
If you’re an empathetic person you have to be happy that Sam Darnold has gotten some mojo back after his memorably disastrous prime-time performance. As is the case with the Jets own defense, the Raiders have also been a little up and down on that side of the ball. Coming off of a good game last week, you had to watch some of the film to determine if their performance was more due to the ineptness of the Bengals offense or a great scheme and play by the Raiders. As is often the case, it’s a little bit of both scenarios. The Bengals tackles where repeatedly whipped on the edges, which is a result of their lack of talent, but also hugely due to the fact that Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell are as good of a rookie tandem of edge rushers as we’ve seen in a long time. We saw first hand in a national game what can happen to Darnold when he has pressure coming at him so if Ferrell and Crosby can duplicate a performance like that it could be another long day for Darnold. The Jets would be wise to feed Le’Veon Bell and center their gameplan around the running game as even the Bengals were able to have success with Joe Mixon.
Another game that the BetCrushers are seeing differently as Yanni is going to take the points at home with a recently improved Jets team. JJ is taking the Raiders in what is essentially a test to see if they’re a playoff caliber team. One thing we agree on is that this will probably be a close game so unless you’ve got a strong lean you may want to pass on this one just as we are.
Yanni’s Pick – Jets +3 (Jets 26, Raiders 23)
JJ’s Pick – Raiders -3 (Raiders 24, Jets 21)
vs. 
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-6) at TENNESSEE TITANS (5-5)
Sunday – November 24th- 4:05pm
Spread: Tennessee Titans -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Public Money Percentage: Tennessee 59%
The Breakdown:
Another virtual must-win game for both teams, as they each look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive in week twelve. The Jaguars are coming off of a lackluster performance with their return of Nick Foles at quarterback and face a Titans team that will be looking to duplicate the gameplan that forced the Jaguars into submission last weekend.
The first quarter of last weeks game against the Colts looked promising for Nick Foles and the Jaguars as they marched down the field and breakout receiver D.J. Chark found the endzone. After that is all sort of unraveled as Jacksonville couldn’t get much going on the ground or through the air. They’ll face a similar opponent this week not only with it being a divisional game, but also in the makeup of the team as the Titans have a similar DNA to the Colts. One thing we’ve figured out throughout this season is when Leonard Fournette can get going on the ground, this offense can move the football. When the running game isn’t there, they simply aren’t dynamic enough to drop back and throw it around the field, despite the nice season from Chark at wide receiver. It doesn’t help that a team that likes to use their tight ends will be without their top three as they’re all battling injuries and won’t be able to go. It sounds a little crazy, but this is an important game for Nick Foles as the local fanbase still has Minshew mania and is calling for the backup quarterback. The team could really use a good performance from Foles and a victory if that’s the route they want to go at the QB position moving forward.
Don’t look now but the Titans are suddenly playing some pretty good offense behind Ryan Tannehill as their scoring average is up well over a touchdown with him as starter. Tannehill will look to continue his good play against the Jaguars, a team that Tennessee has dominated in recent seasons. This game is actually a lot simpler than Tannehill or any trends, it’s all about Derrick Henry versus the Jacksonville defense. The Colts stomped all over the Jags running the football a week ago, something that Henry and the Titans undoubtedly noticed and are planning towards. If Henry can get 25 carries he could end up with 200 yards in this game if the Jaguars can’t shore up that patchwork run defense. If they’re able to contain Henry that will completely alter the outcome of this game and force Tannehill to beat them through the air, something they are a lot more comfortable defending. As much as you’ve got to think Jacksonville will be scheming to stop Henry, this might simply come down to which team wants to hit and tackle harder.
This is a tough divisional game and the spread is around a field goal making it an interesting play if you want some action on it. Based on the dynamic of this game and the matchups, we’re giving the slight edge to the Titans.
Yanni’s Pick – Titans -3 (Titans 28, Jaguars 23)
JJ’s Pick – Titans -3 (Titans 24, Jaguars 20)
vs. 
DALLAS COWBOYS (6-4) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-1)
Sunday – November 24th – 4:25pm
Spread: New England Patriots -6.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Public Money Percentage: Dallas 56%
The Breakdown:
Somewhat lost among the packed slate of great prime-time contests is a fantastic Sunday afternoon inter-conference tilt between the Cowboys and Patriots. While New England hasn’t looked like it’s usual dominating self, they just continue to find ways to win games. Dallas needs to win to stay ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East race to the top.
Somewhere along the way the Dallas Cowboys morphed from a running team to a passing team as Dak Prescott has been on fire while Ezekiel Elliott has been under performing the last few weeks. They will both have their work cut out for them this Sunday against the Patriots in Foxborough as their defense continues to play at a record-setting pace. Let’s start with Zeke Elliott and the running game as they have struggled to hit big plays or even keep the chains going on the ground. Although New England has been good against the run, they’re actually far better against the pass so Dallas will absolutely need to try to get Elliott moving. Taking a cue from the Ravens beating of NE, they may want to involve Dak Prescott with some RPOs, designed quarterback runs and bootlegs as that seems to the achilles’ heel of the Bill Belichek defense. Prescott has been throwing the ball all over the field and involving all of his weapons which he’ll need to make an effort to do here. Don’t expect anything from Amari Cooper in the one as he hasn’t played well on the road to begin with and will draw Stephon Gilmore in coverage. It’ll be up to Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb to win their one on one matchups and find some spots in the zones if the Cowboys are going to have success. We all know the Cowboys have more invested in their offensive line than any other team in the league, they’re going to need their big guys to play their best against this team in both the running and the passing game.
The folks in New England are frustrated with the Patriots lack of production offensively and that includes their leader Tom Brady who said as much publicly this week. Mix in the fact that Mohammed Sanu is likely out in this game and Julian Edelman and Phillip Dorsett are questionable and it’s not exactly a fine tuned machine heading into Sunday. Dallas will be a little weakened as well as their young linebacker Leighton Vander Esch will miss the game with a neck injury which means we may see Sony Michel a little more than we have recently. The Patriots do get first rounder Isaiah Wynn back on the offensive line which should at least be a little boost to a group that hasn’t played great. Dallas should be able to generate some pressure with their edge rushers, however it’s the interior of the defensive line that needs to come up big if they want to really disrupt Brady. When he has pressure in his face at the front of the pocket where he can’t shuffle, step up and throw, that is when he really struggles. A guy NE has been working back into the fold is veteran tight end Ben Watson who made a couple of big catches last week against Philadelphia. Watson could be a bigger factor in this game with the inconsistencies at wide receiver.
This will be one of the largely wagered games of the weekend and possibly one of the more exciting. You can clearly make an argument for taking the points and laying the points in this game. The public cash is on Dallas, as it usually is, and getting nearly a touchdown with that roster seems like a really sound play. We’re both going the other way though as New England seems to play it’s best just when the media starts to count them out. Additionally, Dallas has played a pretty soft schedule for the most part and struggled against quality opponents. Playing in the NFC East they’re not used to seeing a team like the Patriots and it might be a little shock to them. Although Dallas has won some road games, they are a far better team at home, and oh by the way the same thing goes for Tom Brady and the Patriots. We’ll fade the public here for fun and be watching this one as fans, not as bettors.
Yanni’s Pick – Patriots -6.5 (Patriots 28, Cowboys 20)
JJ’s Pick – Patriots -6.5 (Patriots 27, Cowboys 17)
vs. 
GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-2) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (9-1)
Sunday – November 24th – 4:25pm
Spread: San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under: 47.5
Public Money Percentage: Green Bay 59%
The Breakdown:
There were some less than enthralling Sunday and Monday night games early in the season, however the week twelve Sunday Nighter is an absolute jewel for the league. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers hit the road to take on the 49ers in a game that will likely be a lot of fun to watch and have major implications in terms of the NFC playoff picture.
It’s difficult to even know where to start in breaking down this matchup on both sides, so we might as well start with the obvious in future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers at quarterback for Green Bay. Rodgers is no stranger to the big stage and he’ll undoubtedly be ready to put his talents on display against one of the fiercest defenses in the league. The Packers have benefited by really good offensive line play this season across the board and particularly with their veteran tackles David Bhaktiari and Bryan Bulaga. The Pack will face their toughest test as they’ll have to contend with the 49ers defensive line which is the most talented and deepest in the league. Throughout his career Aaron Rodgers has been one of the top quarterbacks against pressure posting a great QBR and almost inviting the blitz. This season has been different however as he has struggled with guys in his face, which makes his offensive line’s job on Sunday even more important. Another thing that has really helped GB this year has been the boost they’ve gotten in their running game as Aaron Jones is having a fantastic year and Jamaal Williams gives them a fresh backup who can catch passes out of the backfield. San Francisco has been stingy against the run and the pass so it will be interesting to watch the Packers adjust on offense if they struggle to run the football, which they very well may. If you are a Packers fan, you should also be concerned that the wide receivers in this game could struggle to win their individual matchups in the secondary and that includes the talented Davante Adams. We won’t forget or deny that this is Aaron Rodgers we’re talking about so he’ll no doubt find a way to make some plays and keep this team competitive no matter who he’s playing, but it may not be their best game of the season.
The injury report will play a big part in what the offensive gameplan might look for the 49ers like as several starters were absent from early week practices. The most important of which is their Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle who will technically be a game-time decision, however reports out of their camp aren’t encouraging. The encouraging news is the team will likely have Emmanuel Sanders back at wide receiver which would be a big boost for that receiving corp. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has gotten some high praise in his young career and it certainly seems deserved at this point in time. When you look at the Packers defense, Shanahan has to continue to stay disciplined and not try to overthink things in this game. His four-headed running back machine let by Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida needs to be fed often in this ballgame. The Packers have shown an inability to muscle up against strong offensive lines to be able to stop the run. Although Jimmy Garoppolo has proven he can make plays when the team needs him to, it wouldn’t seem like the best idea to have him dropping back a lot against the Packers outside edge rushers when he has shown a pattern of tossing interceptions. Make no mistake about it, Jimmy G is going to have to make some plays in the passing game so it can’t be all handing the ball off, but that definitely should be where the Niners lean in this game, and work some high percentage throws when needed.
KEY STATS – The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 prime-time games
We’ve generally subscribed to the “if you can get points with Aaron Rodgers you take them” rule of thumb, yet we’re going against that on this occasion. It’s not because Rodgers won’t make some amazing plays, or because we like Jimmy G and his players better, this has everything to do with defense and homefield advantage. The 49ers will be able to attack the Packers on the ground and expose their run defense while bullying them throughout the game. Rodgers meanwhile is one of the bigger home/away quarterbacks in the league as he’s nearly unstoppable at home, but a somewhat surprising 42-45 on the road straight up in his career. If you need evidence, look at how Rodgers and the Packers performed when they traveled west to take on the Chargers in a stadium that was dominated by their home crowd. Furthermore, the key stat above shows that the Packers haven’t been covering in night time big matchups. Because the Niners have looked pretty average the last couple of weeks in the minds of the public this line sits on the key number of -3 when it really should be closer to -5. If the 49ers don’t turn the ball over, their defense and running game should be able to get them the victory and the cover and play a key role in determining playoff seeding.
Yanni’s Pick – 49ers -3 (49ers 26, Packers 20)
JJ’s Pick – 49ers (49ers 28, Packers 20)
vs. 
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-2) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-5)
Sunday – November 24th – 8:20pm
Spread: Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
Over/Under: 48
Public Money Percentage: Seattle 67%
The Breakdown:
Seattle jets across the country to take on Philadelphia looking to keep pace on the heels of the 49ers, while the Eagles are hoping to pick up a game on the Cowboys in the NFC East. Can the Philly build on their recent defensive improvements against the hot Seahawk offense, and can they get their offense going against a leaky Seattle defense?
The Seahawks enter a tough road game against Philadelphia still soaring high and knowing if they can win it will put a lot of pressure on the 49ers to win a tough contest against Green Bay on Sunday Night. Seattle doesn’t change their offensive philosophy up much week to week and despite a solid Eagles run defense they’ll try to force the issue with Chris Carson and the running game. That could put Russell Wilson in some tough third and long type situations, which is not where the Hawks tend to excel. Eventually Wilson will need to get the ball to his receivers and attack the Eagles secondary, which has played much better since getting Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills back in the lineup. He’s absolutely capable of doing it, and if the Seahawks want to steal a road win, this game is all about Russell Wilson. He’s been on a crash course all season long with a few other guys for MVP consideration and this is the kind of game that can elevate or knock a candidate back depending on the outcome.
Carson Wentz and the Eagles are in an offensive slump that is largely due to a lot of important missing pieces to what was supposed to be an explosive offense. The do have a chance to make things right against a Seahawks defense that is ranked 24th coming into this game and has had their own problems in the secondary throughout the year. While it’s obvious that not having DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery has hindered their play calling, a big loss in this game is right tackle Lane Johnson who it looks like will miss this one in the concussion protocol. The strength of this Seahawks defense is their ability to push the outside of the pocket and Johnson’s absence could loom large here. While the Seahawks have been average at stopping the run, Jordan Howard should return from injury and pair with rookie Miles Sanders to have a good day. With the uncertainty at the tackle positions, the quarterbacks best friend would be a sound running game which is a possibility if Doug Pederson can stay committed to it. Wentz would also be wise to lean on tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert as Seattle has struggled covering the deep middle of the field all year. Vegas expects this game to throw a bunch of points up so this will be very telling for Eagles fans on whether or not this team has some firepower left for the stretch run, or if they’re simply going to fizzle out.
Yanni’s Pick – Seahawks +1.5 (Seahawks 27, Eagles 24)
JJ’s Pick – Eagles -1.5 (Eagles 27, Seahawks 24)
vs. 
BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-2) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (6-4)
Monday – November 25th 8:15pm
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3
Over/Under: 46.5
Public Money Percentage: Baltimore 63%
The Breakdown:
The AFC and NFC do battle on Monday Night Football as the Ravens look to extend their winning streak in Los Angeles against a Rams team that needs to win to stay in the hunt in the stacked West division. Baltimore very much has established who they are and want to be as a football team while the Rams still seem to be learning how to win games in a variety of different ways.
Anyone who thought that Lamar Jackson would fizzle out as a running quarterback in this league needs to go ahead and admit they were way wrong on this. Alright, full transparency, we weren’t sure that Jackson would be able to turn his athleticism into MVP type quarterbacking and we were wrong in that estimation. It’s not just the jaw dropping runs that are so impressive, but his ability to find the right matchups and throw the ball with touch that have made this season so special for Jackson. After beating up the vaunted New England defense he’ll have another tough assignment as he’ll have to figure out how to deal with Aaron Donald and a very talented LA defensive unit. Much like they did against NE, John Harbaugh will need to have a creative running attack to keep the Rams off balance to get things going. Expect more big games from the Baltimore tight end group as their receivers have tough matchups with Jalen Ramsey and Troy Hill on the outside. Wade Phillips is likely going to use his speedy linebacker Corey Littleton as a spy to contain Lamar Jackson and we’ll see if that can slow him down at all. With all eyes on Jackson, the battle of the bigs on this side of the ball particularly could go largely unnoticed, yet will be extremely important to the outcome of this game. It’s hard to really pinpoint who has the advantage there so it could come down to who wants it more?
Watching the Rams against Chicago you may have heard Cris Collinsworth mention something very interesting regarding their plan to block differently and simplify things in the running game for Todd Gurley and it worked as he had his best game this season so far. They could continue that, however they’ll find it’s not very easy to push around the Ravens run defense, which can make for a long day for Jared Goff as much of his and the teams success tends to come off of the running game. While LA’s offensive line performed well against a tough Bears defense, they’ll have to play even better against a Baltimore defense that has been getting better as the season has progressed. Some good news for the Rams is it looks like they’ll have their wide receiver trio back in tact as Brandin Cooks has been cleared from his previous concussion and we assume Robert Woods will be back in the lineup after disciplinary actions. That makes a huge difference for this offense as they’re able to do so many different things and Cooks can really stretch the field opening things up for Cooper Kupp who struggled a bit being the lead dog without a lot of help. The Raven secondary is playing well and with the addition of the former Ram Marcus Peters is now deep and can match up in three receiver sets. Goff has not done well against good defenses going back to the end of last season and his quarterback ratings are mixed in around Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton on the year. In case you forgot, those guys got benched. This could be a statement game for Goff to silence some critics if he can play well, but that’s clearly a big “if”.
KEY STATS – The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games as an
underdog
– The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
This Rams team is living off of last year’s glory and star power and the fact that they’ve been able to tread water about .500 on the season. In reality, this team is struggling to find it’s way despite having some of the most talented players in the league. Meanwhile, this looks like another stop on the Lamar Jackson world MVP tour as he’ll likely have to carry the offense against the Rams defense. The Ravens defense has come on in recent weeks and they should be able to hold the Rams down enough to come away with the win. In addition to passing the eyeball test with these two teams, the trends don’t lie as the Ravens have been a spread beater on the road since Jackson took over at quarterback. Shop around for this line as it’s either -3 or -3.5 depending on the sportsbook and you’ll obviously want to protect yourself in a potential field goal game, but it shouldn’t matter as we’re riding with the Ravens until they give us reason to doubt them.
