It sure is good to have practice and qualifying back to help finalize this week’s betting card. Saturday’s action at Darlington shed some light on likely contenders and, of course, pretenders. In the good news department, Mother Nature appears to be in a favorable mood as the sun goes down in South Carolina this evening. So without further delay, it’s time to kick off the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs and fire up another matchup bet for the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.
Playing the 2022 Cook Out Southern 500 – Featured Handicaps for Darlington
ICYMI, our mid-week handicap of two matchup bets (Reddick/Harvick & Byron/Blaney) dropped Thursday and I’ll be damned if our good friend Paul clued me in on an even better offshore price for the #4 in that matchup. That was exactly the type of rabbit hole to take on more of my action before a single practice lap was run. Naturally, the #4 was far from spectacular but generally respectable in its 10- and 15-lap averages. Rodney Childers says the plan is to let the track come to the car tonight and who am I to argue with that plan? Make that one early CLV loser with Kevin Harvick and a CLV gainer with William Byron.
Speaking of Willy B, his #24 is one of three Chevrolets with top ten starting positions. Saturday’s practice and qualifying showed that speed is distributed nicely across all three manufacturers – four Fords and three Toyotas fill out the rest of the first five rows. Sitting in a non-legalized state at the moment, fortunately my offshores have a decent menu of matchups available to evaluate. So I tacked one more onto my Southern 500 card for the time being and will look to add this afternoon as we get to our next destination. BOL and enjoy the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs!
Clash of Champions: Kyle Larson -125 vs. Kyle Busch -105
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larson | A- | A- | B+ | A | A- |
| Busch | A | C | B | B | B+ |
The mid-week prices on this heavyweight matchup were conflicting to say the least. One prominent domestic book offered Kyle Larson as a -130 favorite while an offshore made Kyle Busch the -135 favorite. This created an interesting plus-money arbitrage scenario that I was unfortunately not able to take advantage of. Regardless, this reopened with Larson as the favorite after both teams lead the pack in longer run speeds. The #5 team earned a slightly higher grade for yesterday’s action primarily because of their sharp 10- and 15-lap averages. But Busch stayed out there for the long haul and looked more than capable to put a big race together. Fastest lap and qualifying position differentials are essentially a wash.
What pushed me toward laying -125 on Kyle Larson is the speed and acumen that he brings to Darlington year in and year out. Engine troubles in May snapped a three-race runner-up streak and a five-race 110+ rating streak. The kid was red hot in the #42 Ganassi Chevrolet – excepting his absences in 2020 – and has not disappointed in his transition to the Hendrick #5. Kyle Busch has failed to break through the 110 rating plateau since the 2019 Southern 500 when he finished one position behind Larson. May 2021’s 2-3 finish was very similar in many respects but we do not have comparable data points for the last two Darlington races, including the 2021 Southern 500. Kyle Busch yielded to accidents in both, while Larson finished as last year’s runner-up.
WAGER: Larson -125
After an uneventful Saturday for these two, I’m off the fence and backing Kyle Larson. He’s shown the ability to be a consistent Top 3 finisher with a realistic ratings range of 110-130. Busch brings plenty of speed and skill to the table as well with consistent Top 10 performances and a likely ratings range of 90-110. I do lean toward the high end for the #18, however. An incident-free race for both teams leans heavily in favor of the #5 crew so the -125 price does not scare me this morning.
I’ll be keeping an eye out for insight from my guys Paul and Ryan plus a handful of sharp NASCAR handicapping minds that we follow on Twitter. Until then, I’m not unhappy with my Southern 500 card that puts plenty of trust in the hands of Rodney Childers and Kevin Harvick – and I’m totally fine with that. They’ve managed Top 10 finishes after starting 20th or worse in three of the last eight here, including this spring. Enjoy Darlington under the lights and we’ll be ready for Kansas next week!
Kansas On Deck!
To get our NASCAR, MLB, and NFL content delivered directly to your inbox, subscribe below or follow us on Twitter. Don’t worry, no spam and we’re not hard up for cash to sell your email address for a few cents. JJ and Yanni don’t roll like that. BOL this weekend and enjoy the race!
