Tensions are rising as the Cup Series regular season schedule winds down to just three more races. Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex, Jr. are battling for one playoff slot at this point in the game, though a wild card winner here at Richmond or Watkins Glen will push them into a win-and-in scenario at Daytona. And the pressure was ratcheted up as old dog Kevin Harvick ran away with a huge victory at Michigan, taking one of two “open” playoff slots. Sunday’s 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway should be interesting in terms of playoff implications alone, let alone following up on a decent betting week.
Playing the 2022 Federated Auto Parts 400 – Featured Handicaps for Richmond
Similar to the Atlanta scenario five races ago, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Richmond Raceway for its 2022 encore. Denny Hamlin walked away victorious and essentially locked up a playoff berth in that April contest. Fast forward to mid-August and the season landscape has changed quite a bit with playoff-caliber drivers like the aforementioned Blaney and Truex approaching Richmond more or less on the outside looking in. Plus Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions left some questions yet to be answered. At least we have some decent head-to-head matchups to work with this morning for the Action Track. Another tip of the cap goes to Ryan at iFantasyRace.com for his speed intel. With that said, BOL this week!
Pre-Qualification Holdover: Kyle Busch -125 vs. Christopher Bell +105
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch | B+ | C- | A- | A- | B- |
| Bell | A+ | B+ | A | A | D |
If you look purely at Saturday’s showing, Kyle Busch is the clear choice in this matchup. Throw out Busch’s 29th qualifying position – especially compared to Bell’s 21st spot – because the #18 was one of the better long-run cars. Practice and qualifying did not change the odds between these two Gibbs drivers and I would make the same bet this morning that I did mid-week. C-Bell has quickly matured into a short track baller and outraced his teammate in the last 3 Richmond races. Busch’s runner up finish at Gateway only reinforces the mantra of never counting him out, which the market apparently subscribes to as well. Despite the C- grade on Kyle’s recent finishes, multiple whiffs are a result of oddball situations including the Pocono disqualification. My cash backs my opinion that this line is too lopsided compared to the narrow gap between Mr. Nice Guy and NASCAR’s Favorite Villain.
WAGER: Bell +105
Models of Consistency: Denny Hamlin -110 vs. Kyle Larson -110
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamlin | A- | A | B+ | A+ | A |
| Larson | B+ | A | B | B | A- |
If you want a premier matchup between two drivers putting up great finishes on non-road course races, look no further than the Richmond spring race winner Denny Hamlin and defending Cup Champion Kyle Larson. You can almost count on Top 10 or even Top 5 speed based on past performance alone. Then these two go out and crush qualifying – Larson on the pole, Hamlin starts 3rd – after looking good in practice. The #11 Toyota was fast on both the short and long runs with the #5 not too far behind. Larson has been a touch faster on the flatter short tracks this season but the difference maker in my opinion is Hamlin’s dominance at Richmond. Although Kyle’s 7 Top 10 finishes in his last 10 here is nothing to scoff at, Denny is quite comfortable on his home track with 11 Top 6 finishes in the last 13.
WAGER: Hamlin -110
Killer Bees Swarming: Ryan Blaney -110 vs. William Byron -110
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaney | C | B+ | A- | A- | B |
| Byron | B | B | B- | A- | B |
There’s not much to dislike with Saturday’s showing from Ryan Blaney and William Byron. Blaney says he loves his #12 Penske Ford while Byron and the HMS gang dialed up enough speed to get the #24 a 4th place starting position. You can make a reasonable case for either driver at a -110 pick ’em, but my position behind Blaney domes down to his consistent delivery on the 1 mile and shorter tracks this season. The counterpoint to this is the #12’s recent dud performance at New Hampshire after a P4 at Gateway and P3 at Nashville. Plus Byron finished in 3rd to Blaney’s 7th here in the spring. My money is on Ryan Blaney and the Top 5 speed that this team is poised to deliver once again with this style of racing. Will his playoff desperation be a positive or a negative though?
WAGER: Blaney -110
Ready For Action!
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