Although our good friend Paul’s Playing the Odds NASCAR Style podcast is still on hiatus, we continue to plug away at betting the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. That said, there is a growing NASCAR handicapping community on Twitter and other outlets providing a ton of quality content and betting insights. I’m in a far-flung orbit around that group of sharp minds. Yet I enjoy hammering the keyboard and peeling back the curtain behind my wagers when time permits. And it’s been way too long since doing so. Sunday’s 2022 M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono Raceway is a good opportunity to get back on the horse and write up my favorite matchup bets at the Tricky Triangle.
Playing the 2022 M&Ms Fan Appreciation 400 – Featured Handicaps for Pocono
First of all, I would be remiss without giving credit where credit is due. Ryan at iFantasyRace.com provides tons of data and analysis on the Cup Series teams, including post-qualifying breakdowns. His site is well worth a subscription if you have any desire to win at NASCAR DFS or betting. I can say firsthand that Ryan’s intel has slashed my driver evaluation time by more than half, leaving much room to shop multiple books for various matchups – and matchup prices.
Before moving onto the hot Pocono asphalt I’ll note how wily veterans like Brad Keselowski and MTJ showed their historical prowesses at New Hampshire despite their inconsistent results in the 2022 season. The Magic Mile is a difficult track to conquer over an entire race and now the Cup Series visits another challenging and unique venue: Pocono’s Tricky Triangle. Should be interesting to watch the old dogs run this week. Especially those veterans piloting the Toyotas…
Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaney | A | A | B+ | B+ |
| Truex | A | B | B+ | A- |
Ryan Blaney as a small -105 dog to MTJ is a matchup that I went back and forth over for a while last night. For starters, the Fords were relative no-shows compared to the Toyotas in practice and qualifying – especially the JGR Camrys. The #12 car spent more time in the pits than on the track during his practice session…and it paid off via great speed in his qualifying runs. Truex was no slouch in qualifying and both will start in the first four rows. For a guy who has generally struggled to close out races, Blaney’s finishes in recent weeks helped earn my money today.
WAGER: Ryan Blaney -105 (DraftKings)
Christopher Bell vs. Joey Logano
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell | A | A- | C | A- |
| Logano | C | C+ | B+ | B |
Experience is one thing, speed is another. The Gibbs Toyotas have it this week and their youngest driver Christopher Bell seems to be carrying big momentum from last week’s win at New Hampshire to the Tricky Triangle. Aside from his Pocono Cup debut in 2020, this track has been tough on the #20 but yesterday’s showing inspired plenty of confidence in the kid. He’s fast, composed, and has 10 Top 10 finishes over the season’s last 15 races. You don’t want to count out an accomplished driver like Joey Logano but Bell is on the rise.
WAGER: Christopher Bell -120 (Bovada)
The Trackhouse Boys vs. William Byron
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Prac & Qual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chastain | A | A | D | A- |
| Suarez | B | A- | C | B |
| Byron | B- | C+ | A- | B+ |
If there’s anything we learned in practice (and yesterday’s Truck and Xfinity Series races), this track is going to be slick in the turns. Both Ross Chastain and Willam Byron made tremendous saves at the end of their sessions after getting loose out of Turn 3. As a result, they’ll start in the rear with my guy Kurt Busch who completely bit the dust in the final qualifying round. Chastain’s success in 2022 has hinged largely on his willingness to be aggressive where others aren’t. Couple that with very good speed and BAM – he has a pair of wins and 10 Top 5 finishes on the season. But I have a tough time getting to a -130 price to back Ross over Willy B, especially given Byron’s performance at Pocono since arriving at the Cup level.
The other way of looking at things is through Daniel Suarez, who has the slight advantage of not starting in the back (he starts in the 9th position). Granted, both Chastain and Byron should make their way through the pack with the speed they have. But they have to avoid a lot of mid-pack danger in Stage 1 via spinouts through the corners as we saw in yesterday’s races. That’s a small edge for the #99 in the early goings plus Suarez has been relatively fast in recent weeks, notching 4 Top 10s in the last 5 races. The key caveat with that point is two of those top finishes came on road courses: a win at Sonoma and P5 at Road America.
WAGER: Daniel Suarez -104 (BetRivers)
Dropping the Green Flag
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