Super Wild Card Weekend Review:
In what has been a battle to stay positive with player props all season, Super Wild Card Weekend delivered a pretty big blow to the BetCrushers, delivering us our worst overall performance in over four years. Almost nothing went right as we ended up with an embarrassing mark of 1-5, with one bet cancelled as Leonard Fournette did not end up playing for the Buccaneers. Things looked good in the first game as Darren Waller looked as though he could very likely stay under his yardage total, however two late grabs on the last drive just put him over. Our second bet was clearly the right side as we also faded Mac Jones with his under passing yards, however game script killed us here. Falling behind forced Jones to attempt way more passes than anticipated, and he beat his yardage total, although not by much. We whiffed on the two mobile quarterbacks we like to rush, as Jalen Hurts fell just a bit shy, and Kyler Murray never got going on the ground in their beatdown at the hands of the Rams. Our lone victory was a Ram, as Sony Michel managed to secure his yardage total over. After a 39 yard burst to start the game, he actually barely got there, and needed a late carry to give us our lone win of the weekend with props. Disappointed, but as always, back to the drawing board.
Divisional Round Preview:
No passing props in the Divisional Round, although we’re going back to a running quarterback with hopefully better results this time around. We’ve got five plays locked in, with a pair in both the Bengals-Titans and Bills-Chiefs games. Four of the plays are statistically backed, while one is a little riskier with a player that’s been a true hit or miss for most of the season. Have a great Divisional Round!
Our Picks:
Elijah Mitchell – Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
The San Francisco 49ers want to run the ball right at the Green Bay Packers when the teams face off in Lambeau Field with a shot at the NFC Championship on the line. Between quarterback Jimmy Garropolo’s hand and shoulder injuries, and the opportunistic secondary of the Packers, San Francisco needs to run the ball effectively, and often. Enter rookie running back Elijah Mitchell, who has been a rookie sensation for the team and figures to carry the load once again against the Packers. Green Bay is allowing over 4.7 yards per carry to opposing runners, and will face one of the toughest running and blocking schemes employed by Kyle Shanahan and the Niners. In his last six starts, Mitchell has had at least 21 carries in each contest, including three games with 27 attempts. Even though Deebo Samuel will poach some snaps in the backfield, there is really no reason to believe that Mitchell won’t hit 20 rushing attempts yet again.
Julio Jones – Over 43.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
In a rare event this season, the Titans will have their star trio of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all on the field together. After missing over half of the regular season, all eyes will be on how running back Derrick Henry performs, and what he can bring to a Tennessee offense that has been fairly stagnant due to their injuries. That’s the reason we like looking at Julio Jones in this matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. Although Jones largely had a disappointing first campaign in Tennessee, he claims to be as healthy as he’s been all season and feeling ready to go for the playoff run. Jones will see a lot of cornerback Eli Apple on Saturday, and that’s a matchup that the Titans will look to exploit. Apple has looked really good at times, but also really weak at others. With all of the effort that will be focused on Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, expect Jones to get some extra targets in the passing game. With a total yardage of just 43.5 yards, we’ll give the veteran the benefit of the doubt.
Tee Higgins – Over 4.5 Receptions (-125)
We’ll start out the next player prop by stating that you may not want to play this one if you’re strictly an analytical bettor. Tee Higgins has quietly had a great season in the shadows of rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase at the wide receiver position. Recently the young wideout has had a couple of less than impressive statistical games during the Bengals winning streak. Call it a bit of “reading the tea leaves”, but we’re expecting a big performance from Higgins against the Titans. Tennessee has already stated they’re going to be watching Ja’Marr Chase closely, which should open things up for the complimentary receivers. The stats may not necessarily back this one because of the high volatility of Higgins, but coming off of his 1 catch performance in the Wild Card Round, don’t be surprised to see a rebound from the Bengals number two receiver.
Mecole Hardman – Over 31.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
After a somewhat disappointing sophomore campaign, wide receiver Mecole Hardman appears to be heating up at just the right time heading into the playoffs. After being held under 30 yards for a stretch of 6 out of 7 games during mid-season, Hardman has been more effective putting up less than 30 yards only once in his last 6 games. Patrick Mahomes seems to be looking his way a little more often as his snap share has also elevated slightly. In their monster matchup against the top ranked Buffalo Bills pass defense, Hardman is actually one of the most important pieces of the Kansas City offense. The Bills defense, which is playing without lockdown cornerback Tre’Davious White, will need to use number two corner Levi Wallace and safety help on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Replacement cornerback Dane Jackson has been a bit of a liability, and he’ll likely draw Hardman for a good portion of the game. The first time the Bills faced the Chiefs this season, Hardman actually led the team in targets and receptions. The speedy wideout is a threat to make a big play every time that he touches it, and should have enough opportunities to get over the low total that he’s been routinely beating down the stretch.
Josh Allen – Over 49.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
The sportsbooks finally seem to be catching on to the rushing prowess of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen as his rushing yardage has steadily climbed from being in the 20’s, to 30s, and now pushing 50 yards. In reality, this still isn’t enough of an adjustment for the second leading rushing quarterback in the league this season. When games are critical, both Allen and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll are not afraid to use the quarterbacks athleticism to tuck the ball to run. In his last four games, he’s rushed for 64, 81, 63 and 66 yards, respectively. There is a lot of open offense and points expected when the Chiefs and Bills face off for the second time this season, and Allen will look to shine again in primetime. In his first matchup with Kansas City, Allen ran for 59 yards, and that was in a game that the Bills were really in control of for the entirety. As we saw a week ago against the Patriots, look for some designed runs for Allen on key plays, and his willingness to tuck the football away if his receivers aren’t open down the field. The numbers and enormity of the contest point the compass in the favor of an over here.
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