ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs -150
Los Angeles Chargers +190
Oakland Raiders +1100
Denver Broncos +1200
The AFC West has no shortage of storylines entering the 2019 season. Kansas City opens as the favorite with the always game Los Angeles Chargers playing catch up. Denver and Oakland are in different stages of re-building their proud franchises, yet both offer a lot of excitement and potential if you’re a fan. Can Patrick Mahomes replicate his magical season or will Philip Rivers finally break through as he has been mostly unable to do since early in his illustrious career? The volatile and diverse mixed formulas of these teams will lead to some hard-hitting battles, so let’s hope Roger Goodell’s zebras can keep the yellow flags in their pockets.
Denver Broncos
2018 Record – 6-10
2018 Record Against the Spread – 6-9-1
A veteran quarterback with a power running game and elite talent on defense. The Denver Broncos are starting to look a lot like the evil twin of the Baltimore Ravens over the past two decades. To make it official the team brought over long-time Ravens signal-caller Joe Flacco to provide the stability to the quarterback position that Case Keenum was unable to do in 2018. If you think about it, modeling your team after the Ravens isn’t the worst idea in the world as that team won a pair of Super Bowl trophies and was a routine participant in the postseason. It would also make sense as their new head coach Vic Fangio has certainly proven he can put together a winning team with that blueprint. The offensive line is solid and the Broncos have a stable of quality running backs lead by last year’s unheralded rookie Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos are going to need a breakout season from WR Cortland Sutton if they’re going to have any explosiveness on offense. Emmanuel Sanders questionable return from injury could ultimately determine whether this team gets anything from their receivers or whether they end up at the bottom of the league at the position.
The Broncos defense does in fact have some similarities to the old Ravens squads, but let’s not confuse this group with some of the best and most iconic D’s in the NFL’s history. Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and Chris Harris (who is also coming off of injury) form three potential All-Pros as cornerstones of this defense. The big discrepancy between the Ravens and Broncos does not revolve around the star-power, but around the complimentary players on the unit. Once you move past the three leaders the talent really seems to fall off. Can the Broncos big three do enough to keep them in games and provide their offense with short fields? Denver should see some stability and has a gameplan to keep them competitive, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine them being able to keep up not only in the division but in the league as a whole, particularly with what appears to be a brutal schedule.
2019 Strength of Schedule – 2nd (.537)
Team Win Total Odds – 7 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-11
This team seems almost a sure lock to finish right around where they did one season ago. It’s probable that they will go around 2-4 in the division and even with a strong homefield advantage it’s unlikely they’d be able to win more than a few more games with their schedule. Until this team can find it’s quarterback of the future for sure, they will most likely struggle to crack the .500 barrier.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals / Under
Assuming that the Broncos can find even a small amount of support for their superstars on defense they should be able to keep games close and scores low. The potential lack of downfield big plays on offense means that this team will be grinding out long field goals for scores. It’s always tough to go “under” on totals in this day’s NFL but the Broncos seem to be that team you’ll be able to consistently do that with.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Phillip Lindsay (RB)
The Broncos DST could be a sleeper due to their ability to generate pass rush, however you may want to wait to see how they perform before getting too fascinated by them. Phillip Lindsay seems to be the only sure thing on this roster and even that is debatable. The Broncos have a full stable committee in the backfield and although Lindsay is the proven head man he could lose some important touches.
Los Angeles Chargers
2018 Record – 12-4
2018 Record Against the Spread – 9-7
For much of the past decade the burden of carrying the Chargers has rested on the shoulders of quarterback Philip Rivers. It should be business as usual for the Lightning Bolts except for the fact that this team has a lot of supporting talent on both sides of the ball. When you examine the depth chart the Chargers have as many quality ranked players as any team in the entire league. Even though Melvin Gordon is highly respected, he may be underrated when you look at what he has done for this team and the high level of play he consistently brings. Wide receiver Mike Williams proved that he can be a playmaker opposite of their number one mane Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin still has enough speed to be a viable down the field target. This offensive line is big and mean with the ability to block in the run and pass game. With the departure of future HOFer Antonio Gates at TE, Hunter Henry will need to step up his game to provide Rivers with the reliable target he’s so used to having at the position. Speaking of Rivers, he has shown no signs of slowing down as he enters the latter stages of his career but one has to wonder how many more chances he’s going to get?
Defensively, this team is built with strength on both the inside and outside. They are a nice combination of speed and power with both veteran presence and young and hungry talent. The Chargers should be solid stopping the run, and we know they have the talent coming off the edges with their leaders Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The addition of Thomas Davis could be a key to making this defensive group a top unit. It’s hard to know how much Davis can contribute, however he was brought in equally to guide the team and younger players as he was for his production on the field. The Chargers landed a potential career star at safety in Derwin James in last year’s draft and he should be making big plays for the team for many years to come. LA is a top six or seven team in the league without a doubt, but can they overtake the juggernaut in KC? We’ll have to wait and see on that question, but it sure seems like this division is a lock to put two teams into the playoffs.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 16th (.502)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-5
It’s never recommended to lay juice of -140 but there can’t be many scenarios in which the Chargers don’t win 10+ games. This team has as much potential to make a Super Bowl run as anyone in the league. They’ve surrounded Rivers with the talent needed on offense and defense to compete with anyone. Last year the Chargers figured out how to win the close games, something that had eluded them in year’s past. This year could be the logical next step in the journey towards a deep playoff march.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread / Teasers / Prop Bets
There are a myriad of ways to bet the Chargers in the 2019 season. Look for value with Chargers on the road particularly if you’re getting points. This team won’t get blown out and will pull some road upsets. Look to tease them +6 if you can get to the right number for the reasons mentioned above. Lastly, keep an eye on Melvin Gordon for some prop bets. He routinely beat his total yardage totals last year and should do that again this season.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Melvin Gordon (RB), Hunter Henry (TE), Chargers (DST)
Rivers and his WR gang are certainly in play so scoop them up if you can get them for the right price. Just in case you didn’t catch our bro-mance affair with Melvin Gordon here it is again. This guy can help you win your fantasy league so don’t be afraid to grab him at the top of a draft. Hunter Henry is the most interesting play for this team. Rivers looks to the TE position often and if Henry can fill the long-time role of Antonio Gates he could end up with a lot of targets, particularly in the red zone. Finally, grab this defense in daily fantasy if the matchup is right. They can obliterate opposing quarterbacks and turn them over.
Kansas City Chiefs
2018 Record – 12-4
2018 Record Against the Spread – 9-6-1
Thanks to the NFL’s ruling regarding Tyreek Hill we had to re-write our entire AFC West preview. If you happened to catch our preseason power rankings you recall we had the Chiefs starting the season at number four. That was solely based on the assumption that Hill would be suspended for much or all of the season and his impact is that big on this team. Being as he was recently confirmed as not being disciplined, we’ll repeat that his impact is that big of a deal for the Chiefs. Even with New England in the conference, this team should be the clear favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes made Andy Reid and the organization look brilliant by inserting him as the starter and put on some of the most memorable displays we’ve seen at the QB position in recent years. This offense has matchup nightmares across the board making it nearly impossible to defend. Even if you can take away two or more of the weapons, they’ve got enough versatility to beat you in other areas. The offensive line will be the key for this team on the offensive side of the ball. They need to continue to be a top performing unit in order to put up the video game numbers and highlights they did in 2018.
When you break down the defense things really start to get interesting. It’s not often you can let team leaders and Pro Bowl caliber players like Justin Houston, Dee Form and Eric Berry out the door and perhaps be even better. That’s exactly what this team did as they let their veterans walk in favor of some new talent bringing in edge rusher Frank Clark and safety Tyrann Mathieu. The Chiefs most likely overspent to bring the free agents in, however they clearly see an opportunity to win now and these guys can help them do that. If Chris Jones can give them another dominant season as he did a year ago this unit could and should be improved. The cornerback position is a little worrisome but what else is new with this Chiefs team? It could take a bit for this unit to come together as a team so don’t be surprised if they struggle a bit early in the season while they’re finding their footing. When you look at this Chiefs team it may not matter how good the defense is. They’re clearly built to light up the scoreboard and if they’re doing that they’ll win plenty of games.
2019 Strength of Schedule – Tied 5th (.520)
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -120, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-4
Without Tyreek Hill we had this team pegged at 9-7. (Feel free to loft the tomatoes at us). With the dynamic WR, we’ve got them around the 12-4 mark. A three game improvement from one WR may seem crazy, but the matchup problems he creates allow everyone else on the offense to do what they need to do. Let’s see what this defense can do and get ready for some fireworks again in KC.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
It may seem like a square wager to look at betting the overs with Kansas City but we’re all in. This team will score 30 with ease each week and more than likely be putting up 40+ with some regularity. Don’t bet the number with these overs, bet the team. We locked in the over bet with KC/LA last year at the ridiculous number and covered early and easily. It’s an easy path toward some nice cash growth.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Damien Williams (RB)
Draft Chiefs, it’s that simple. Mahomes, Kelce and Hill should all be early picks and barring injuries will all put up monster numbers again in 2019. Sammy Watkins is a popular name, but beware as Demarcus Robinson and rookie speedster Mecole Hardman could steal some targets from him. The steal on this team could be Damien Williams but it’s all dependent on whether or not the Chiefs offer to split time with newly acquired Carlos Hyde or feature Williams. Either way, Williams should put up some good numbers, it’s just a matter of whether he’s a clear RB1 or an RB2.
Oakland Raiders
2018 Record – 4-12
2018 Record Against the Spread – 6-10
If you’re looking for an organization that offers a lot of consistency look no further than the Oakland Raiders. Since their Rich Gannon playoff days this team has repeatedly mixed things up with wild draft days, unconventional free agent signings and a lot of turmoil. This Jon Gruden and new GM Mike Mayock’s team seems to follow right along those familiar footsteps. The problem the Raiders have had is they have only been consistent at losing a lot of football games and being completely dysfunctional. Could this team be the one to turn things around before their departure to Las Vegas for the 2020 season. By the way, shout out to the Black Hole and Raider Nation for continuing to be some of the most loyal, passionate and wild fans in the league operating with a lame duck franchise.
Getting back to the roster, this group is a duct-taped collection of names and personalities that the silver and black faithful hope can come together to compete in the AFC West. Let’s start with the marquee signing as the Raiders bring over one of the leagues biggest and most productive stars in Antonio Brown. There’s no denying that Brown has been as good as it gets at the WR position since his arrival in the league. But let’s tackle the elephant in the room: Can Brown co-exist with quarterback Derek Carr who has the polar opposite personality style? It’s also fair to wonder if Brown’s minor decline a year ago was all mental, or due if even just in slight, to his elevating age? Regardless, there is no question that with he and fellow free agent signee Tyrell Williams that Carr has the talent needed on the outside of the field to be successful. Alabama’s Josh Jacobs looks as though he’ll be the rookie starter at RB with the dependable pass catching Jalen Richard backing him up. The offensive line on paper looks interesting to say the least, which could probably be assumed if you have Richie Incognito on your depth chart. There are some recognizable names on the line, however it’ll be worth watching to see if they can play well together as a unit. Last season David Carr relied heavily on TE Jared Cook who had his best season as a pro and left for New Orleans. There isn’t a ton to be excited about at the TE position this year so we’ll see if Carr can adapt or if it forces him to go to the receivers outside.
The Oakland defense had their fair share of questionable roster moves adding Gruden type guys like Vontaze Burfict and Brandon Marshall. The team will be looking to rookie edge rusher Clelin Ferrell to provide a spark at the position, and also to prove draft experts wrong who felt the Raiders reached a bit there. The secondary is unproven and a bit thin, however bringing Lamarcus Joyner over to join another first round draft pick in Jonathan Abrams should provide them with some stability on the back end. Nevin Lawson is a solid player at the corner but we’re struggling to see how this group is going to be able to keep up with the Chiefs and Chargers in the division. One thing is for sure, there should be no shortage of storylines with this Raider team and win or lose they should be fun to watch.
2019 Strength of Schedule – 1st (.539)
Team Win Total Odds – 6 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 5-11
We’re assuming Mayock and Gruden have a plan for this team for the future. Let’s go ahead and realistically say that this team’s future starts in Las Vegas. With a revamped roster, the Raiders should be feisty and could certainly surprise some teams. It’s just hard to see this team in this division being able to string together consistent winning streaks. For the sake of the Raider Nation let’s hope this team can send them out of Oakland on a high note.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
If you go back a few seasons you’ll find an interesting trend regarding the Raiders against the spread. They’re pretty terrible on the road as you may expect, but they’re actually not too bad at the cozy confines of home. Look to bet with this team at home but consistently against them on the road.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Josh Jacobs (RB), Tyrell Williams (WR)
The key word with running back Josh Jacobs is a player to “watch”. It’s really difficult to determine whether or not he will be a productive bell-cow back for this team even though he’s listed that way to start the season. Buy at your own risk as he could make you look really intelligent or really foolish six weeks into the season. Tyrell Williams is someone you can probably find as a semi-sleeper for the season. He’s a talented and experienced player with the ability to score touchdowns. Derek Carr generally doesn’t force throws so with AB double teams Williams could get a lot of looks from Carr.
