ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills -150
Miami Dolphins +325
New England Patriots +350
New York Jets +2500
The AFC East is shaping up to be one of the stronger divisions in football heading into the 2021 season. The Buffalo Bills, freshly removed from the AFC Championship game are favored to repeat as champions, but will face what should be a rejuvenated New England Patriot squad and a potential trendy playoff pick in the Miami Dolphins. The New York Jets are going to have to fight to make up ground in the race, but with a new head coach and quarterback, it’s a combination of rebuilding and optimism in the Big Apple.
Buffalo Bills
2020 Record – 13-3
2020 Record Against the Spread – 11-5
Although the 2020 season ended up with a disappointing loss in Arrhowhead, it was a huge success for the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen. The team blossomed on offense and managed to win their first playoff games in over two decades. What went along with an impressive 13-3 record was an 11-5 mark against the spread as the oddsmakers didn’t catch up to the red hot Bills on the road or at home. Entering this season expectations are now high as this team returns most of it’s roster from a year ago. It’s clear that after years of futility, it’s now Super Bowl or bust in Buffalo.
When looking at the Bills offense, the very first thing that needs to be mentioned is the return of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. The Buffalo offense has plenty of weapons, but it’s Daboll who finds the creative ways to keep opposing defenses on their heels. The offense is completely intact from a season ago with one swip-swap that saw John Brown depart for Oakland and Emmanuel Sanders come to town. Expect a lot of creativity once again mixed in with an increased presence of the running game in 2021. This offense is built and designed to mix and match parts which gives it a lot of versatility with the playbook. Don’t overlook the sneaky offseason pick up of backup QB Mitchell Trubisky on this roster. In a season with COVID protocols, having a capable veteran quarterback to man the ship if needed for a couple of games is a luxury that the Bills now enjoy that many other teams do not.
After a really slow start in the first half of the season, the Bills defense came on strong and showed signs of being a strong unit down the stretch. The team has put most of it’s draft emphasis on pass rushers and the defensive line, and if preseason is any indication, it may pay dividends. This year’s first round choice Greg Rousseau and last year’s top pick A.J. Epenesa are both poised to have breakout seasons, and the team will need them to fix the glaring hole of a pass rush from last year. The back seven should be solid as the team was able to re-sign LB Matt Milano and their trio in the secondary of the underrated Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Pro Bowl corner Tre White are as solid as any groupings in the league. Assuming the offense keeps up it’s torrid pace, it might come down to how well the defense can hold down the top teams in the AFC with how far the Bills can go.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 23rd (.478)
Team Win Total Odds – 11 Wins (over -125, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 12-5
The Bills finished 13-3 with a pretty tough schedule a year ago, so it’s reasonable to assume that they’ll be able to beat their team total of 11 that’s set this year, with a 17th game. The AFC East should be improved, but overall this team has too much talent and consistency to not hit the 12 or 13 wins. If you can find odds at -130 or better for the team to win the division it’s also in play, but the team total over is a definite consideration.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Team Total – Overs
With the constant musical chairs of players in the NFL it sometimes takes a team a little while to get all of their pieces clicking. That shouldn’t be the case for the Bills, as they should be able to hit the ground running with an updated playbook and a showcase of weapons. With the exception of their week one matchup against a tough Steelers defense, this team should be expecting to put up 30+ points per game early in the season.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Josh Allen (QB)
There are too many options to highlight on this offense as Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders should all be consistent producers, headlined of course by Diggs. For that reason, it’s probably best to focus on the marquee name despite his hefty price tag. Josh Allen was a top performer all last season and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be able to duplicate the numbers from a year ago.
Miami Dolphins
2020 Record – 10-6
2020 Record Against the Spread – 11-5
Doesn’t it seem like ages ago that the Miami Dolphins were the laughing stock of the National Football League? Miami has quietly restocked their roster with premier talent at a lot of key positions as head coach Brian Flores looks to build upon a solid 2020 season. If we know one thing about the NFL, it’s that quarterbacks are king. How will year two go for Tua Tagovailoa?
We can break down the Miami offense all that we want, and there are a couple of things that need to be discussed, but this offense is all about Tua Tagovailoa. The team brought veteran Jacoby Brissett in as a backup, but it’s a totally different dynamic than a year ago with Ryan Fitzpatrick as a relief pitching option. Tua has looked sharp in his limited preseason action, and we have to remember he’s still basically a rookie in terms of games played. As with any young quarterback, he can benefit from good offensive line play, which is one of the bigger question marks on this team. He’ll also benefit from a lot of weapons in the passing game. The team drafted speedster Jaylen Waddle to partner with Davante Parker and free agent Will Fuller V which creates a lot of matchup problems for defenses. With Mike Gesicki in the seam, this is not an easy offense to gameplan against. The skill positions are locked and loaded, can Tua run this offense in critical moments and provide the leadership needed?
In looking at the Dolphins defense it all really starts with the secondary. After a dicey standoff with cornerback Xavien Howard, the team manager to get a deal done and the Pro Bowler is ready to follow up his strong 2020 with another dominant season. Brian Flores poached some familiar talent bringing safeties Eric Rowe and Jason McCourty over from New England to provide some more stability and leadership to the defense. The front seven has some playmakers of their own as defensive end Christian Wilkins would seem to be a candidate poised for a big season. The starting defense certainly seems like they should be good enough to keep this team in ballgames, however depth could be an issue as there doesn’t seem to be a lot behind the starters.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 27th (.471)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-8
On paper this team has a lot to be excited about, and they’ve looked sharp in the preseason, for whatever value you want to put on that. Maybe it’s just not believing in Tua yet, or something else, but despite the impressive skill positions we’re just not buying in yet. It’s clear that this team has a high ceiling if Tua can step up, but we’re going to stick with the oddsmakers as a 9-8 mark seems about right until we learn more.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
A year ago we listed ATS as a good play in favor of the Dolphins and they carried an 11-5 mark throughout the season. This year we’re looking to play this team ATS again, however not in their favor. This team is getting a lot of hype which could translate into some ballooned lines for them. Keep an eye on fading them early in the season.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Myles Gaskin (RB), Mike Gesicki (TE)
We talked a lot about the skill position players, but don’t sleep on running back Myles Gaskin. He looks like he’ll be a true lead back and he has the ability to grind out yard and TDs as a back that a lot of the public isn’t overly high on. If you don’t grab one of the top tight ends, Mike Gesicki is a great next tier option, particularly as a red zone threat.
New England Patriots
2020 Record – 7-9
2020 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
Consider 2020 a lost season for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots as the team never really seemed to find an identity. If any team and coach can rebound it’ll be this team that welcomes back some veteran players and a crop of free agents. This version of Patriots resembles some of the older Belichick teams that is relying on a stout defense and some potentially creative offense to win games.
If you’re a Patriots fan you have to be encouraged with the fact that Cam Newton has looked pretty sharp throwing the ball in the offseason. You’d likely be even more excited to see that rookie quarterback Mac Jones has looked really poised in his early appearances. It will be interesting to watch how this offense progresses this year and whether or not the team rolls with Newton or gives Jones an opportunity. The offensive line should be good across and the running back trio of Damien Harris, Sony Michel and James While will do their general work out of the backfield. The wide receiver position is still a bit of a challenge despite giving free agent Nelson Agholor a big payday. That may not matter though as you can expect the Pats to run this offense through the tight end position. Hunter Henry and Johnnu Smith are not Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but they have a similar makeup and you can count on see some of that creative play calling from offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Somewhere between last season and this season the Patriots pieced together a really impressive, versatile and deep defensive squad. The team is strong at all three levels headed by the linebacking corp which is glad to have back Kyle Van Noy and Dont’a Hightower and free agent acquisition Matthew Judon. Even with some uncertainty of the health and status of Stephon Gilmore, the secondary is deep and should get its share of takeaways. In a league built on offense, this team will be banking on the defense to find it’s wins.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 19th (.489)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -125, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
Don’t be scared away by the Patriots pedestrian offense and lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. The defense will carry this team and they will absolutely be in the playoff hunt in 2021. They’re capable of winning the division, but more than likely they’ll be fighting for a wild card berth.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under – Under Totals
This one really isn’t rocket science when you look at what could be a really good defense and a mediocre offense. As much as we all hate them, playing the under might be a season long winning ticket involving the Patriots.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Johnnu Smith (TE), Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry and Johnnu Smith both have an opportunity to shine this season in New England and will. Henry is the probably the more predictable and consistent stat maker, but Johnnu Smith could end up being a surprise player that’s going unnoticed heading into the season. Between these two, there could easily be over 15 touchdowns when it’s all said and done.
New York Jets
2020 Record – 2-14
2020 Record Against the Spread – 6-10
Let’s get it out in the open right away that the New York Jets are in a rebuilding mode and aren’t going to seriously threaten in the AFC East. It’s definitely not all doom and gloom though as new head coach Robert Saleh is building the culture he wants with the players that fit his style. Oh, they’re already looking pretty good with their selection of Zach Wilson to be the new face of the franchise.
Of all of the rookie quarterbacks to join the league, the Jets Zach Wilson looks like he may be the most ready to start. He started camp looking a little lost, before rounding into form and looking absolutely great in their preseason games. He’ll join some other new faces on the offense as the team brought over veterans Corey Davis at wide receiver and Tevin Coleman at running back. The offensive line has young talent on the left side, but still isn’t great so Wilson will need to figure things out quickly if the Jets are going to be competitive and he wants to stay healthy.
The defense was dealt an initial blow when defensive end Carl Lawson was lost for the season during training camp. The team did add Sheldon Rankins on the interior, and with Quinnen Williams they should be solid at stopping the run. It’ll also help that they get C.J. Mosley back who opted out in the 2020 season. Marcus Maye anchors the secondary, but overall this is a unit that could be pretty overmatched against teams that run three and four wide receiver sets.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 19th (.489)
Team Win Total Odds – 6 (over -120, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 6-11
The future really does appear to be bright in New York after the failed Adam Gase and Sam Darnold era. Zach Wilson will likely make some great plays, and suffer some rookie setbacks in his first season. The Jets should be competitive most weeks, but they need a little more talent on both sides of the ball before they can really be a serious contender in the AFC East. With their win total notched at six, and our projections there as well, there doesn’t seem to be much value on any future bets here.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
You’ll have to pick your battles if you’re betting against this Jets team as there obviously isn’t a lot of value there. If things go to form, this team will struggle against strong opponents on the road. Fade them in select situations.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Jamison Crowder (WR)
No matter what he seems to do in his career, wide receiver Jamison Crowder never seems to get the respect he deserves. There’ll be some eyes on Corey Davis, rookie Elijah Moore and others, but Crowder will consistently catch passes week in and week out. If you’re playing anything with PPR, get Crowder into your lineup.
