The MLB Morning Breakdown for 6-18-2021 is back in action after a brief mid-week hiatus. I’m cramming it in at work in advance of a trip to Colorado starting next weekend – so note that the Breakdown will be on a long break from June 27th – July 6th. In the meantime, let’s get a solo shot cranked up to start the weekend off right!
2021 Featured Handicap Results
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants (-125)
It’s June 18th and the San Francisco Giants still lead the NL West – by 2.5 games at that! Their four-game sweep of the Diamondbacks came on the heels of a 3-3 road trip in which their offense began to sputter. San Francisco scored just 3 runs in the four-game set in Washington before returning home to put up 37 runs against Arizona. And seemingly for the Giants lineup, there’s no place like home – they hold a 22-9 record at Oracle Park and hit significantly better there:
San Francisco Giants Offense
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | .247 | .342 | .427 | 117 |
| Away | .229 | .421 | .728 | 99 |
| Last 14 Days | .265 | .344 | .472 | 126 |
The Giants are powering through injuries to key position players like Evan Longoria, Alex Dickerson, and Tommy La Stella. In their absence, platoon guys like Wilmer Flores and Donovan Solano have stepped up to cushion the blow of those losses. Now they square off in a three-game set against Philadelphia, who is working through their own injuries to middle infielders Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius. Philly’s 6-2 homestand benefitted from an offensive uptick before cooling off in Los Angeles against the Dodgers’ stifling rotation. Their .278/.335/.389 slash line and 98 wRC+ over the trailing seven-day period is a step in the right direction as compared to their season-long 93 wRC+.
V. Velasquez (R) vs. J. Cueto (R)
Philly has an opportunity to kick off their weekend by the bay on the right foot, as 35-year-old Johnny Cueto starts the series opener. As you would expect from a mid-4.00s FIP starter at that age, consistently holding opponents at bay can be very difficult. Johnny’s last four starts have been a mixed bag including a stellar 5-hit, 1-run, 7-inning outing against the Angels. But the other three starts were less fruitful, yielding 13 runs in 14.2 innings against the Nationals, Cubs, and Diamondbacks.
Cueto should give the Phillies ample opportunities to answer this hot Giants offense. As much as I love the guy, his 39.5% ground ball rate and 37.5% hard hit rate are at career-worst levels. Plus his cutter and changeup have lost their effectiveness considerably this year. Ironically, those last three 3+ run outings came against teams who have weaker offensive splits against right-handed pitching. Philadelphia shares that same trait (102 wRC+ vs. LHP; 88 wRC+ vs. RHP) and could follow suit in continuing Cueto’s rough patch tonight.
Is Vinny the Answer?
Johnny squares off against the Phillies’ versatile righty Vince Velasquez. Vinny the Ice Man is fresh off of a very solid start at Citizens Bank Park in which he yielded only a pair of runs over 5 innings against the Yankees. He danced around some sticky situations, notably leaving Aaron Judge high and dry in a couple prime scoring opportunities. That effort damn near sunk Saturday’s Yankees team total play and now he takes a shot at cooling down the red-hot Giants. Last weekend, I called attention to several of Velasquez’ indicators that point towards offensive success against him. And those numbers are still appetizing to play against, even if they moved in Vince’s favor after that solid start against New York:
- Career-low .263 BABIP speaks to a touch of good fortune
- 2.11 K/BB could be trouble against a Giants team that walks 12.1% at home
- 45.2% hard hit rate
Bullpens Pitching In
The Giants bullpen is in fantastic shape after Kevin Gausman pitched 8 spectacular innings yesterday afternoon. Essentially everyone in their relief unit is rested and available tonight. Plus they come in with a 2.53 FIP over the last two weeks, which is a dramatic improvement over some of their early-season woes. This stretch has pulled the bullpen’s season-long mark back up to around league average. Still it is tough to expect the Phillies to make many waves in the late innings, stressing the importance of hitting Cueto early and often.
On the other hand, the Phillies bullpen presents opportunities for the Giants to push across a few runs after Velasquez exits. In fact, that’s how our Yankees team total went over last weekend. The positive aspect for them is that yesterday was a day off and their starters pitched very efficiently against the Dodgers – so they too should be rested and at full strength tonight. Again, Vince typically goes 5 innings at the most, so the Philly relievers will need to cover about 3 innings. For the Giants’ sake, this bullpen has been one of the worst this year (4.62 FIP/4.17 xFIP) and has showed no signs of improvement in the trailing 14-day period (4.95 FIP/4.20 xFIP).
WAGER: Giants Team Total Over 4 -120 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Giants Team Total Over 4.5 +110 (1/2 unit)
If you have access to a domestic book like BetMGM or an offshore like Bovada, the multiple team total offerings present options. I’ve settled on my usual mini-ladder with a cheap over 4 while stretching for a little yield with the over 4.5. I cannot advocate for what appears to be an expensive -150 or -165 to buy the team total down to 3.5 though. The Giants may not get an opportunity to hit in the 9th inning – but if they do, that’s one more inning against a generous Philly bullpen.
Around the Horn
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