The Twins offense vs. Carlos Carrasco matchup was a big draw for a +118 underdog bet on Minnesota before Carrasco was scratched due to unfortunate medical concerns. When the game came back with Tyler Clippard as the Indians starter, the line flipped to Twins -120. After adjusting for the pitching change, I laid the price but only with a first 5 inning wager because the bullpen disparity was exaggerated.
Late scratches challenge the handicapping process, let alone the communication chain in the BetCrushers team. I’ve attached a screen shot of my graded wager on Bookmaker.eu since we inadvertently did not specify the F5 re-bet on our social media feeds. I highly doubt anyone is blindly tailing us at this point, but is important to accurately reflect our bet history as we continue to produce and build content for people to take into consideration when they scour the board for opportunities. Apologies for the miscue. “Like Ma Bell, I got the Ill Communication”
That said, a 1-0 Wednesday evens out the week at 2-2 for 0 units. I held back on a +177 White Sox bet, which turned out to be a money saver. The Nats bullpen blew another lead, but their bats bailed them out with a 2-run walk-off homer. Very tough to bet against this Washington team right now as they continue to get wins by any means.
With an even mark on the week, I’ve booked a bet and a half and have another waiting in the wings. Let’s dive into the 3 games that have my interest today…
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Still Fading: Astros RL -115
After fortunately passing on yesterday’s edition of the Mariners Fade, I’m back against Seattle as they continue their downward spiral. Justin Verlander has the job of putting the Mariners’ offense on ice while the Houston hitters grind out enough runs. He’ll give up his requisite home run this afternoon, but chances are the damage will be minimal. Verlander’s sub-1.00 WHIP is a product of these gaudy stats: 19 BB, 45 H, 103 K in 87.1 innings.
Tommy Milone has stepped up to fill a rotation spot since late May and has not been too bad. He’s more or less a 5-inning guy that only coughs up a couple runs per start. Milone should be decent against a diminished Astros lineup, but the concern for Seattle is turning the game over to a bad (but slightly improved) bullpen for 3-4 innings. Neither starter has a great ground ball contact rate, though Milone’s BABIP is .324 and the Astros are generally sharp hitters despite currently missing a few key pieces.
The Mariners absolutely crushed the Astros last night. Their inconsistency is a product of their team’s composition, which is dynamic as pieces are traded off and new guys are brought in to shake things up. Seattle hasn’t won back-to-back games since May 14th and I greatly appreciate how the Astros get their wins despite whatever challenges they face.
Houston has their good bullpen arms ready to take the ball when Verlander exits after 6 or 7 innings. Can a patchwork Houston lineup produce enough to cover the run line? I think so, especially behind the arms of Verlander and this top-notch bullpen.
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Brace Yourself: Pirates +114 & F5 (TBD)
This Pirates bullpen is so nerve-racking that I have to split my wager in half to take their relief unit out of the equation. Chris Archer doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, though I do not agree with Foltynewicz and the Braves being favored over the home team. Both offenses have been productive recently, and I would argue that the Pirates have actually provided more consistency in that department. Folty has let up 13 homers and 26 earned runs over 38.1 innings, even with a great start in St. Louis against a slumping Cardinals club.
Chris Archer is a tough guy to back, without a doubt. Handicapping can be a matter of relativity when squaring up starters, offenses, bullpens, etc. Archer has given up 10 bombs and 30 earned runs in 47.2 innings, which is barely better than Folty. I’ll split hairs between these bad pitchers with their batted ball metrics to give Archer the edge:
Folty – 35.6% ground ball, 46.4% hard contact, 23.2% HR/FB
Archer – 38.6% ground ball, 39.1% hard contact, 17.5% HR/FB
A clear advantage goes to the Atlanta bullpen that has been reducing opponents’ opportunities lately, while the Pirates relievers have been terrible more often than not. This is why I have to split my full game wager up with a first 5 inning play. I still see value in the Pirates as a dog this afternoon but I cannot be blind to their bullpen’s track record.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
Play TBD (not posted)
Ryne Stanek and Jalen Beeks are expected to tag-team start this game against Daniel Norris and the Tigers. This tandem has been generally effective in going 5-6 innings except for a bumpy outing for Beeks against the Dodgers. Daniel Norris has been slipping lately after a great start to the season. He’s given up 6 home runs and 15 earned runs over 22.1 innings in his last 4 starts.
The Rays stumbled in their 4-game series with Minnesota but I see them rebounding in this series. Detroit’s bullpen has improved slightly, though they continue to be extremely volatile. They will be put to the test if Norris cannot make it past the 5th inning. The Tigers have been hitting better, just not to the level of the Rays as their bats continue to get hotter. This play is totally price-dependent, and will likely be a run line wager in some fashion.
