Now that the busy travel month of April is behind me, I look forward to more time watching more teams via the MLB.TV app. With that said, the season is starting to get into a “leveling out” stage where teams who quickly shot out of the gates are hitting some stumbling blocks. And vice versa – several latecomers are finding traction in their divisions. So it’s no coincidence that the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-3-2021 takes a look at such an example…
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics (-125)
A pair of hopeful American League playoff contenders square off tonight in Oakland as the Toronto Blue Jays say goodbye to their temporary home in Dunedin, Florida. The game features teams that my long-term prospects see heading in opposite directions. Oakland’s epic 13-game win streak put them on a pace well above my expectations for a win total in the mid-80s, though they have dropped four of their last five games. Toronto, on the other hand, is gradually pulling out of their sluggish start on offense and is steadily making their way towards my low-90s win total target.
My handicap relies heavily on projections for the Blue Jays to be about 12% more productive at the plate than the Athletics. And over the past two weeks, Toronto has outproduced Oakland by nearly 10%. Those diverging trajectories really started to swing in opposite directions last week:
- Toronto: .277/.367/.591; 166 wRC+
- Oakland: .197/.264/.347; 80 wRC+
Are these trajectories sustainable for another week? I highly doubt that the extremes will persist, especially with the Blue Jays having recently feasted on subpar Atlanta pitching. The BetCrushers’ recent outing to Friday night’s game in Dunedin witnessed how vulnerable Drew Smyly was in that hitter-friendly ballpark. Now with the action shifting to one of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly parks, these offenses truly need to value consistent hitting to manufacture more runs than the other.
Trending Bats
Despite Oakland’s pull back in productivity last week, their offensive core continued to chug along during that stretch:
- Sean Murphy: .316/.409/.789
- Matt Chapman: .350/.480/.550
- Ramon Laureano: .250/.300/.536
- Tony Kemp: .308/.471/.385
- Matt Olson: .294/.294/.588
Their opponents, however, have really been dialing up the intensity at the plate for a two-week period:
- Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.: .333/.412/.733
- Randal Grichuk: .317/.349/.610
- Marcus Semien: .314/.400/.514
- Teoscar Hernandez: .308/.357/.538
- Bo Bichette: .268/.333/.537
Getting a Big Lift
Toronto’s new centerfielder George Springer made his season debut at the tail end of the Washington series, leading off and playing DH the past four games. Despite a pair of 0-fer games, Springer got on base a couple times Friday night and made an instant impact on the base paths. Then he smashed a pair of homers Saturday in Toronto’s tight win against Charlie Morton. And although I would love to see him patrolling the expansive center field in Oakland tonight, all signs point to George continuing to DH for the near future.
The Blue Jays could have their hands full tonight against righty Frankie Montas. Springer’s four-game acclimation back to the big leagues is timely considering his success against Montas. These two squared off in five games when both played in the AL West, with George having decent success against Frankie to the tune of 4-for-13 with 1 home run while slashing .308/.357/.538. However, my handicap of this game must also consider the fact that Springer was pulled in the 6th inning yesterday to spare him from fatigue as he gets back into game shape. Will this affect his availability for tonight? Unfortunately, I do not have the answer this early in the morning.
S. Matz (L) vs. F. Montas (R)
As we all know, many MLB games are dictated by starting pitching. And tonight’s matchup pits a tough Frankie Montas against a Steven Matz in his rebound season. Matz was shelled by the boom-or-bust Nationals in his last outing for 6 runs on 8 hits in 3.2 innings. Then again, Washington boasts a potent .869 OPS against lefties. Oakland is no slouch against southpaws either, slashing .315/.430/.745 with 13 home runs. Matz’ recent stumbles against the Nats and the Rays warrant the short underdog price on face value.
However, I tend to side more closely to Steven Matz being a mid-4.00s FIP type of pitcher this season. His season-long 3.78 FIP/3.96 xFIP reflects three solid starts of 1 run in each to kick off the 2021 campaign. One aspect that really hurt Matz in the Washington game was generating only 2 strikeouts. Now he faces a club that strikes out at a league-average rate of 24.1%, which bumped up slightly last week at 25.9%. Steven’s command with the slider will be paramount when facing guys like Mark Canha, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Jed Lowrie who have feasted on fastballs.
Oakland’s Frankie Montas has not been as sharp as manager Bob Melvin would like him to be. His 5.22 FIP/4.41 xFIP and .320 BABIP speaks to him being somewhat unfortunate, as opposed to Matz’ .264 BABIP. Then again, Montas had just one season with a BABIP under .320 – his breakout 2019 campaign. He has also suffered his worst hard hit (40.7%) and barrel rates (14.8%) so far this year, due in part to negative ratings on his fastball and secondary slider/splitter combo. Putting aside his disastrous season opener against the Dodgers, Frankie has given up 4 home runs, 15 hits, and 9 runs in his last two starts. Yet I still project him as a low-to-mid-4.00s FIP pitcher with upside ahead of him.
WAGER: Blue Jays First 5 Innings +100 (1/2 unit)
WAGER: Blue Jays Full Game +112 (1/2 unit)
I’ve chosen to isolate the first 5 innings in addition to playing the full game – splitting my position in half between them. Each team’s lefty/righty splits in 2021 point to an edge for Oakland, although my season expectations and their recent form mesh to somewhat minimize that edge. And in terms of bullpens, both have been better than projected so far this season. Toronto used setup man David Phelps and closer Rafael Dolis in each of their last two games, although Dolis needed just one out to seal Sunday’s victory. On the other hand, Oakland called upon their late-inning trio of Yusmeiro Petit, Jake Diekman, and Lou Trivino for one inning from each yesterday. But Trivino and Diekman came into that contest with two days of rest so I have to expect them to be ready to go in a close game tonight. I just can’t pass up a shot to catch the rising Toronto Blue Jays as a slight dog though. Go Jays!
Around the Horn
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