Opportunity knocked Saturday, but the Reds could not open the door…in multiple situations. As noted in yesterday’s article, Nats’ pitcher Erick Fedde had been solid but was not expected to go past the 5th inning. He left after 4 innings, having run up 85 pitches with 6 hits and 3 walks. But Cincinnati left 8 men on base in the first 3 innings and picked up a paltry 2 runs off of him. The Washington bullpen pitched a miraculous 5 innings of 0-run ball on their way to a 5-2 win. The formula was there; execution, not so much.
Mike Soroka was not his sharpest yesterday, though he went 6-2/3 innings and kept the game relatively in check for the Atlanta bats to heat up and take over late. The Tigers bullpen continues to be a unit that can be scored upon, and the Braves have enough solid hitters to take advantage. Greinke was another great pitcher I backed yesterday that did not have a good outing. He was bounced after 4 runs in 4 innings, though the Diamondbacks relief unit did a very good job of limiting further damage. The Mets bullpen blew it and Arizona finally managed to win a close one in extras.
After losing a pair of one-run extra-inning games on Arizona last week, getting one back last night seems proper. That made the difference for the day, which ended at 2-1 for +0.86 units. A brutal week is shaping up a bit to be less than a nightmare, though it all comes down to Sunday’s two plays…
Philadelphia Phillies @ LA Dodgers
Run it Up: Dodgers RL +120
Nick Pivetta gets the ball in this series finale with Los Angeles. In a nut shell, Pivetta has been very easy to score on and could easily get knocked around by this Dodgers lineup. Let’s put his worst starts behind him and focus on his last 2 outings. In those 2 starts, he’s gone 10 innings and gave up 6 earned runs and 4 home runs with an 8 K/5 BB ratio. This will be his first start of the season on the road, FWIW.
Rich Hill has been limiting runs and has posted 3 quality starts in a row. In those recent starts, he’s surrendered 3 earned runs and 2 home runs over 18 innings with a 23 K/3 BB ratio. Hill has generated 50% ground balls and 22.2% soft contact this season. He faces a solid Philadelphia lineup that is fairly consistent and can generate runs.
LA is known for their home run hitting, but they are also one of the most effective teams in creating baserunners to maximize that power. Pivetta’s .370 BABIP tells me that the Dodgers will not have a hard time getting to him early and often. This is not good for a Philly bullpen that was used top to bottom for 6-1/3 innings yesterday.
The Dodgers relievers are by no means a lock-down unit though they should be at full strength due to Kershaw’s deep outing Saturday. LA is on an 8-2 run that includes 5-1 at home, and I see another solid win this afternoon notwithstanding a possible bullpen letdown. -155 is too steep for me, so I’ll take a shot at the plus-money run line play.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds
Seize the Opportunity: Reds +116
After a game where the Reds had every opportunity imaginable in the first three innings, they face Max Scherzer and the potential for very few chances to put up runs. Max has been pitching quite well lately, giving up only 1 earned run and striking out 15 in 12 innings over his last 2 starts. Even though he did not allow a home run, he still had a .337 BABIP in those starts against the Mets and Marlins.
Sonny Gray has been equally as impressive lately. In his last pair of starts against the Pirates and Brewers, he pitched 12 innings with 16 strikeouts and 1 earned run. Sounds about like Scherzer, right? Gray has excelled at generating ground balls this season (55.9%) but gives up 40.4% hard contact. The Washington offense is clicking now, specifically with Rendon and Soto putting in serious work at the plate.
Cincy will not have nearly as many chances to get and keep a lead against Scherzer today. Hitting into 3 double plays like yesterday will not get it done, but I still see this Reds team as having good enough of an offense to support Gray in a pitchers’ duel. I handicap this game with strong similarities in the starting pitching and offensive areas. Again, the bullpen is where this game could be decided although both starters should shorten the game for the relievers. This is a small-edge game but the home dog is calling.
