Preview:
The NFL was in a great position with all four of the teams playing in the Championship round featuring offense and star power. Ultimately, the two biggest faces of the league prevailed, and the old school (Tom Brady) faces the new generation (Patrick Mahomes). Tampa Bay becomes the first team to play their Super Bowl in their home stadium, while Kansas City looks to be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since Brady’s Patriots completed that task in 2003-2004.
The spread for Super Bowl LV opened at Kansas City -3.5 at most books with an over/under set at 57 points. Early bets have favored the Chiefs and the under as the total has settled at 56.5 at most locations. In a matchup that should be fun for fans, we can expect a lot of passing, blitzing and touchdowns. Will the speed and talented skill position players be the difference, or will the team that can control the lines of scrimmage prevail?
Super Bowl LV
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
vs. 
Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) ATS(11-6-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4) ATS(12-5-1)
Sunday February 7th, 2021
6:30pm
CBS
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-105)
Over/Under 56.5 (-110)
Quarterback – Kansas City Chiefs
It seems flat-out wrong to not give Tom Brady the advantage over anyone when it comes to playing in the postseason. While Brady is the G.O.A.T., and still playing at a ridiculously high level, the game now belongs to Patrick Mahomes. His pocket awareness mirrors Tom Brady, only with the athleticism to escape rather than just shuffling around rushers. It’s unlikely anyone will ever top what Brady has done in this league, but if there were one guy that would have a chance, it’s Mahomes.
Running Backs – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You can certainly make the argument that the Chiefs backfield is deeper as they’ll rotate rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Williams and former Pro Bowler Le’Veon Bell in their backfield. This is a quality over quantity argument however as Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II are a better one-two punch at this point in the season. Fournette is fresh and running with purpose and has done a nice job receiving at the position. Jones is powerful and could find success in the middle of the Chiefs defense.
Wide Receivers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a really close call as each team is in really good shape when it comes to their wide receiving corp. We’re giving a slight edge to the Buccaneers group as top to bottom they’re just a little bit stronger. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin lead the team, yet it could be Antonio Brown, who returning from injury could make a big impact in this one. Scotty Miller has come up big as well when his number is called. Flipping over, the Chiefs have the best wide receiver in the game with Tyreek Hill, but after that it can sometimes be a little muddy. Sammy Watkins has been banged up and inconsistent, and Mecole Hardman’s success seems to rest on whether or not he can make a big play in the game.
Tight Ends – Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce is just on a completely different level than the rest of the tight ends in the league during this season and run for the Chiefs. The Bucs’ have future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski and the quietly productive Cameron Brate so they’re not bad at the position by any means, but Kelce is a difference-making weapon.
Offensive Line – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If the Chiefs offensive line was completely intact, they’d get the nod here, however they’re going to be heading into this game with some big question marks and backups playing. Left tackle Eric Fisher was lost in the AFC Championship game and star right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has yet to return from his injury. Missing all season was guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif who had opted out. The Tampa offensive line has been up and down this season, but their uniformity will give them the advantage over the banged up Chiefs group.
Defensive Line – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Much like in the wide receiver grades, Kansas City owns the top player in defensive tackle Chris Jones. The sum of the parts however favors the Buccaneers when you look closely at their grades and performance. Tampa is superior in run defense and generating pressure. The return of Vita Vea to join N’damukong Suh and William Gholston, and the depth of veterans Steve McClendon and Rakeem Nunez-Roches make this group solid across the board. The Chiefs are going to need Frank Clark to play more to his 2019 form and get some help from their rotation if they want to slow Tom Brady down.
Linebackers – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is probably the biggest mismatch of any position as the Bucs’ boast one of the best groupings of linebackers of the past few seasons in the league. Kansas City by comparison is at best average at the linebacker position. The emergence of Devin White for Tampa as a star joining Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett and Jason-Pierre Paul (who’s technically listed as an LB) is something that could cause problems for Kansas City.
Defensive Backs – Kansas City Chiefs
The secondary for Tampa has played really well down the stretch and in the playoffs. The Chiefs secondary has played downright spectacularly in their two playoff games. They’ve been glued to some great receivers and match up pretty well with most receivers. Tyrann Mathieu is the star of the group, but his mate at safety Daniel Sorenson has provided the toughness to compliment him. The corners are deep as the improvement of L’Jarius Sneed has allowed them to play Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward at their natural positions. Sneed was in the concussion protocol, but should be cleared by the big game. The Bucs’ secondary has some athletes with Carlton Davis and rookie Antoine Winfield, Jr. but their lack of experience and reliance on the big play are less of a sure thing than what the Chiefs secondary brings to the table at this point.
Special Teams – Kansas City Chiefs
The punters for KC and TB aren’t often utilized, however they’re about dead even when you match them up. At the start of the season Harrison Butker would have had a huge leg up in the kicking game, but in reality Ryan Succop has firmed up Tampa’s kicking and they’re actually pretty even as well. Butker has a slightly stronger leg and has a little more credibility in the clutch so gun to the head, you have to take Butker there. Where KC has the more clear edge is in the return and coverage as they’re substantially better with their speed and discipline.
Coaching – Kansas City Chiefs
Both teams have very good coaching staffs on each side of the ball with head coaches that are very involved with the offensive gameplans and play-calling duties. Both defensive coordinators (Todd Bowles and Steve Spagnuolo) do their best coaching in big games and each has a big task ahead of them preparing for the deepest offenses they’ll face all season. We’re giving the overall minimal edge to Kansas City as Reid has earned that throughout his career, and of course in Super Bowl LIV.
2020 Offensive and Defensive Rankings
When you look at the rankings on offense and defense for these teams there are a couple of things that jump out. Tampa’s rushing offense was nearly non-existent during the regular season. That’s not surprising for a Bruce Arians offense, but don’t be fooled into thinking this team can’t run the ball when they want to. And against the Chiefs, they’ll likely need to at some point early or late in the game for different reasons. The other stat to examine is the discrepancy in defenses as the Bucs’ finished 6th, while the Chiefs were smack in the middle of the pack. Can the Chiefs ride their top ranked passing attack as they have all season?
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
The Kansas City Chiefs offensively have that feel of an NBA basketball team doing some “load management” during the season. At times during the regular season they seemed to be going through the motions rather than putting their foot on the gas. In a slew of close games in the latter half of the season, they always found a way to come away with the big play and win when it was crunch-time. In the playoffs they’ve cranked up the energy and have looked really sharp, despite a moderate scare from the Browns when Patrick Mahomes was sidelined. While the defenses will be key, make no mistake about it, for the Chiefs to repeat, their offense is going to have to carry them again.
In their Championship win over the Bills the Chiefs suffered a really big blow, as their starting left tackle Eric Fisher was lost with an achilles injury. Kansas City has shuffled linemen all season, but this is the biggest challenge they’ll face up front. Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie have jumped in at tackle and played fairly well, yet are a far cry from Eric Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz. It’s possible Schwartz could be ready to go by Super Bowl Sunday, which would be a huge boost to this line. As it stands right now, this is the single biggest problem area for either team entering the game. Tampa’s defensive line is big and strong, and was able to bring Vita Vea back in a fairly prominent role in their game against the Packers. With Vea joining N’damukong Suh an William Gholston it’s set up for a physical battle that Tampa should win. That allows Bucs’ defensive coordinator Todd Bowles some options with how he wants to defend the Chiefs passing game. Linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White are both versatile enough to cover or rush, and Shaquille Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul could spell trouble for Remmers and Wylie.
That struggle for the Chiefs will extend into the running game as Tampa has remained top-tier in rush defense, finishing second during the regular season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrell Williams will likely split the time at running for Kansas City and Le’Veon Bell, if cleared could get some work too. In actuality, Andy Reid will probably opt for whichever back he feels best about in pass protection and the receiving game. Don’t expect Reid to bang his head against the brick wall that is the Tampa rush defense. If Bell is healthy, that could be why he gets the nod, although Reid proved last Super Bowl that experience and name mean very little as LeSean McCoy was a healthy scratch.
If you noticed we didn’t spend a ton of time talking about the running game for KC, it’s because it’s all about their number one passing game. Patrick Mahomes is and will be the best quarterback in this league as long as he is healthy. There really doesn’t seem to be any area where he has deficiencies. The only way to neutralize Mahomes is to get to him before he can release the ball, which is something most teams can’t do with his quick reads and release. No more gushing over Mahomes as we’re not sharing any information that you don’t already know. Let’s take a look at the guys that help make him spectacular and start with the two well-known entities in tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Kelce has taken his perennial All-Pro play to new heights this season and will need to get downfield against the Bucs’. He feasted on the short zone against the Bills, however Todd Bowles won’t allow that to happen. Kelce will need to find spots in front of safeties Antoine Winfield, Jr. and Jordan Whitehead, both of whom will be fighting back from injuries. They’ll need to balance that attention on Kelce and still being able to support the corners against Hill and the speed of the Chiefs wide receivers. The corners for the Bucs’ have played pretty well during their playoff run as Carlton Davis has tightened his coverage up, and Sean Murphy-Bunting has been a turnover magnet. They have had some challenges during the season against speedy receivers though, which is of course where this Kansas City team leads the world. It only takes one play for Mecole Hardman to make a difference, and Sammy Watkins should be back after missing time with injury. He was a big factor in Super Bowl LIV and provides a nice compliment that can beat single coverage, which he always gets due to Kelce and Hill. The breakdown again circles back to Mahomes and his ability to have time in the pocket. If his line can hold up against the front seven of the Bucs’, his receivers will feast against their secondary. If he’s under constant pressure, mistakes are very possible, or at the very least some punts or field goals.
THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:
No one has played in more Super Bowls than Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, so his breakdown might seem a bit obvious or repetitive. It’s a totally different world for him though with this Tampa Bay offense, one that he has helped improve drastically from early in the season. One thing that everyone should understand, is this Bucs’ offense is going to need to put up a lot of points if they hope to win against the Chiefs.
The offensive line for TB has one really big job in this game, defending Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones. Not only is Jones the best game-wrecker for KC, he also has the most important role against Tom Brady. Throughout his career Brady’s biggest challenges have come when he gets pressure in his face, not around the edge. Chiefs defensive ends Frank Clark and Tanoh Kpassagnon can help the cause by getting pressure off the sides, but it will only matter if Jones is pushing the pocket forward. The interior of the Tampa offensive line consisting of Ali Marpet, Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie will play a huge role in the outcome of this game.
From a scheming standpoint it will be fun to watch how Bruce Arians attacks the front seven of the Chiefs. Leonard Fournette, who’s captured the lead role at running back has looked really good and fresh since Ronald Jones II went down with his injury a few weeks ago. Both backs are physical and can get the tough yards or break the big ones when they’re there. Kansas City is very vulnerable against the run, meaning that if Arians can commit to the running game, they could control the clock and the game. The challenge seems more mental than physical as both Arians and Tom Brady are a “throw first” team that generally only mixes in the run as an obligation, rather than as a plan. The Chiefs linebackers are a pedestrian group and it sure feels like Tampa could consistently rip off four and five yard gains without too much trouble. Will they stay patient?
It’s understandable why Tampa throws first as they do have the greatest quarterback to ever play the game lining up behind center. Add in a trio of very skilled receivers and their tight ends and this one of just a few teams that can go head-to-head with the Chiefs skill players. Mike Evans leads the group, but it’s often Chris Godwin that is able to make plays in the slot. Bruce Arians loves to work the middle of the field, as does Brady and they’ll need Godwin to make plays. He’s had some recent issues with drops, something the team can’t afford on the biggest stage. Antonio Brown rounds out the mix, assuming he returns from his injury, and could be the true “x” factor in this game. He has the ability, experience, and Brady’s trust and loves the spotlight despite being a good and quiet soldier with his opportunity in Tampa. Moving over to the Tampa tight ends, there are some things to like here as well with future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. While neither are the athletes that can beat Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorenson step-for-step, both can take advantage of their aggressiveness. The Chiefs have had some issues stopping opposing tight ends throughout the course of the season. As was mentioned on the other side of the ball, the biggest key for Tampa on offense is keeping Brady protected. The Giants beat Brady twice in the Super Bowl simply by harassing him throughout the game. Will the Chiefs be able to do the same thing?
KEY STATS: – The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games
– The Chiefs are 10-0 straight up in their last 10 games
– The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
PUBLIC MONEY: – Kansas City Chiefs – 58%
THE SKINNY:
As you’d expect in the final game of the season, there are two exceptional football teams left standing. As we were breaking down our tale of the tape it was instantly clear that these two teams are very evenly matched in a lot of ways. There aren’t too many games where turnovers aren’t a factor in determining the outcome, yet in this game they will almost certainly tell the story. In a game that is likely to be close throughout, it could be a mistake one way or the other that turns the tide. Both teams have the ability to create takeaways, but who do you trust to take care of the ball better in a big game situation? How about when we look at some of the intangibles and trends that have been going on with these teams? The Chiefs have struggled against the spread, although can’t seem to lose when the game is on the line. The Buccaneers on the other hand have been hot during their winning streak and played well against the spread.
BetCrushers Lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
WHAT WE ARE PLAYING:
We’ll have locked in official plays including prop bets before kickoff of Super Bowl LV. We do have some early tickets in though that we’re posting if you want to get some bets in before any line movements in either direction. In a game that seems very evenly matched, traditional handicapping tells us to take the points (with the hook) as getting 3.5 is huge. Our Super Bowl spread bets will be very conservative as there will be more enticing options with prop bets. We’ll also let you know what side the sharp money is coming in on, and whether or not that will impact our future wagers. Check back and follow us on Twitter @TheBetCrushers for all of our posted plays.
