Saturday’s plays involved a four-pack of home teams headlined by the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ve owned the A’s so far this season, notching their 5th win against Oakland in as many games. All the buzz has been around Vlad Jr. this weekend but he was essentially a non-factor in their 7-1 beatdown. Not sure they were a short home dog with all things considered, although the Jays went off as a -110 favorite. Early bird got that worm, a.k.a a nickel.
The Diamondbacks had their winning streak broken and issued the only mark in the loss column for me yesterday. Total domination by the Cubs, which wasn’t necessarily a surprise with Godley on the hill. Two run line plays on the Phillies and Dodgers were very close in the end but paid off at +115 and +105, respectively. I’ve lost plenty of close ones this season, so a little variance on my side is always appreciated.
Nothing spectacular, but the solid 3-1 Saturday actually makes for a small daily winning streak consisting of a whopping 3 days. The 2.25 units added to the bankroll ups the net on this mini-streak to +4.74 via a 7-3 record. Some of this success can be attributed to having more 2019 data on teams and starting pitchers, while some is related to tightening up my use of run line wagers. I started the season looser on run lines than I had been in 2018 when I incorporated them with typical money line bets. More on that topic in another day, which concerns an important part of the feedback loop I use to be more effective.
Obviously I want to continue the positive momentum through the end of week 4 with some wins on Sunday. The risk is high with 6 plays; an even mix of run line and money line plays…
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
Tyler Glasnow is a guy that’s been on my watchlist this season. My inclination is to lean to the Rays when he is on the mound, especially in a plus-money scenario. He’s given up a couple runs in each of his last 2 starts but is an efficient pitcher that is effective in limiting damage. The Rays’ offense is on-par with Boston’s and their bullpen is much less volatile. Neither team has any true momentum so this is a pure matchup game.
Chris Sale is well known as a strikeout guy who can go very deep in most games. In 2019, he’s only made it past the 5th inning once (4/2 @Oakland) and has had some high-K games. The downside is that he’s given up at least 4 runs in 3 of 5 starts, including 6 home runs this season. A 7.43 ERA and 4.46 xFIP shows that he’s getting knocked around disproportionally so I have to temper his results with potential. Mother Nature willing, I have to take a good-paying dog with this pitching matchup.
Slight Edge, Good Payoff: Rays +139
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
It’s been while since I’ve put my money behind the Twins. I had gotten away with a couple wins on them despite their bullpen walking the tightrope and barely making it across the canyon. Against the Orioles, however, Minnesota’s bullpen weakness is a relative measurement. Baltimore has one of the worst relief units and throws Dylan Bundy this afternoon. He has a 27.9% ground ball rate, which does not mesh well with a powerful Twins lineup. Bundy was successful against the Twins in his last start but I look at that as a one-off.
I’m coming around on Kyle Gibson this season. While he’s not in the top couple tiers of starters in the MLB by any measure, he’s a decent ground-ball pitcher that should have an edge over his counterpart today. In their last 10 games, the Twins are 7-3 overall and 3-1 at home in that stretch. They’ve dominated the O’s in the first 2 games of this set, outscoring them 15-3.
Only Way to Play It: Twins RL +100
Cleveland Indians @ Houston Astros
Sunday’s nightcap pits a pair of teams that most expect to be division winners come September. Cleveland took the first 2, while Houston squeezed out a critical win yesterday. Carlos Carrasco looks to continue his season turnaround after an early exit in his last start from a collision while covering 1st base. I have to give Carrasco “good form” marks for tonight even though his recovery has a short body of work, in part due to the Houston offense scuffling right now.
The Astros rely on putting together strings of timely hits to score runs although they have hit a lot of home runs so far. Wade Miley has logged a pair of effective 6-inning starts recently and has consistently given up 2-3 runs a game. His steadiness, combined with a great bullpen, should limit the Indians to about 3, maybe 4, runs. This makes the margin for a Houston win slim but I believe the upside lies with the home squad. If Carrasco is not extra sharp, the Astros should win this one easily.
Play the Percentages: Astros -115
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago put the brakes on the D-backs’ 5-game winning streak last night with a big 9-1 win by starting quickly against Godley. Jose Quintana gets the job of making it a streak for the Cubs and getting out of Arizona with a series win. Qunitana has been very good for the most part this season, only giving up runs in 2 of his 5 outings. He has made it through 7 innings in his last 3 starts after giving up 8 in Milwaukee.
Arizona has a tough task cracking Quintana this afternoon, although they have feasted off of lefties with a .300 average. Luke Weaver has pitched fairly well this season and is gradually improving as it progressed. He’s yielded only 2 home runs in 27 innings and can be effective striking guys out. This will be a test of Arizona’s resiliency after having their win streak snapped.
Home Value: Diamondbacks +105
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
The Rockies have taken it to the Braves in the first 2 games of this series and now rely on Tyler Anderson to get the sweep. Anderson has given up 16 runs in 12 innings and sports a 37% ground ball rate. His 5.20 xFIP and .422 BABIP show that his 12.00 ERA is not what you want to measure him by, though it is hard to argue that he is a quality starter. The Colorado offense has come alive, winning their last 3 games by 4 runs each. They are 8-2 in their last 10 and actually have a decent bullpen to help close out games.
Kevin Gausman struggled in his last start against the Reds but generally can be solid. His 37.9% ground ball rate could be trouble against the hot Rockies’ bats. I’ll be swimming upstream in this one, counting on the Braves to convert more runs out of their hits. Atlanta’s potent lineup has been delivering hits and should continue to do so against today’s lefty, the side which they’ve hit .301 against this season.
Against the Trend: Braves RL +110
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
Another game that will depend on the weather won’t get much of a breakdown from me this morning. There are clear disparities between these teams’ offenses and Miami has one of the most volatile bullpens in the league. Eflin had a meltdown in his last start against the Marlins but has been reasonable otherwise. Pablo Lopez can be tough and has been improving in his recent outings, most notably by limiting home runs. Despite the inconsistency with the Phillies’ offense and Lopez’ potential to keep them at bay, I will roll with the home team. -160 is no good given the toss-up nature of the pitching matchup today.
