Easter Sunday’s 1-4 result was disappointing to say the least. The extra-innings loss by the Rays was the difference-maker in regard to maintaining a solid bounce back week. Unfortunately, the day’s results made the week a slight loss of 0.45 units and the season just shy of -6 units.
Before diving into Monday’s short slate, I’ll touch on my expected pace through an MLB season. My style only uses 1 unit bets, but I ramp up the size of my bet unit a couple times through the first quarter of the season to adjust for the quality of current data. I bumped the wager size up by 25% heading into this past week, and will eventually get to a 50% increase over the starting amount sometime in early May.
In the past 5 years of MLB sides betting, I expect to win about 1.25 units per week based on my typical bet volume. This is a long-term average and the week-to-week fluctuations are far from smooth. 2019 is a case in point. Week 1 had an average profit, week 2 was a big loss, and week 3 was a dud. Especially coming off of a lackluster week, I like to put season-to-date results in perspective.
Using 25 weeks as a good proxy for a full season plus limited playoffs action, I project a range somewhere of about 25-30 units of profit. Some of those 5 seasons have been a little under and some have been a little over. With 22 weeks to go, I need to average 1.4 units of profit per week here on out to dig out of the -6 hole and get to +25 for the season.
1.4 units per week. That’s certainly doable. With a brutal week 2 well in the rearview, it’s time to look for winners today…
Philadelphia Phillies @ NY Mets
Jake Arrieta is arguably pitching too well for what the metrics are saying. His 90% LOB rate is not sustainable and the 2.25 ERA realistically has only one direction to go. I’ve dampened his YTD results enough to account for this, but not too much because he hasn’t given us reason to significantly downgrade him. He stifled the Mets over 8 innings last Wednesday in Philly and has only given up 7 runs in 4 outings. Their offense sputtered for the most part on the road trip to Colorado.
Steven Matz was a guy I backed in his last start in Philly. That happened to be the start where he gave up 6 runs without recording an out. He was another guy who was pitching very well until the Phillies got a hold of him last Tuesday. Just like Arrieta, I don’t expect a repeat performance and can see a solid start tonight. His K rate and GB% were about where you want him to be prior to that disastrous outing. Similar to Philly, the Mets offense produced less than what they probably expected on their trip to St. Louis.
This game presents a pair of very good pitchers and a couple of potent offenses that underproduced in their last series. Philly’s bullpen is essentially an average group, while New York’s has been quite poor. Gsellman took 3 innings of duty off of their shoulders yesterday so at least they will be rested. This is a game that isn’t the easiest to get a read on but I have to continue to ride with Arrieta until he proves otherwise. Rested or not, the Mets’ relievers are an additional liability. Philly’s big boys need to step up to pick up the slack for the injuries they’ve suffered lately. Can they carry the load?
WAGER: Phillies -102
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates make me scratch my head. Who is this team? Their lineup doesn’t inspire you to back them, but their rotation and bullpen have been solid as a rock. Joe Musgrove is a young arm with great location on his fastball but needs the slider and changeup to be an effective starter. He has pitched very efficiently in his 4 starts this season, arguably punching above his weight. Although their offensive output has been slim, they’ve stayed in close games and maintained small leads deep into games. It’s best for Pirates bettors not to keep an eye on their games because of this tension.
Zack Godley comes into tonight off of 4 inconsistent starts, alternating between quite good and bad. My opinion is that his performance will dictate the complexion and outcome of this game. Arizona’s offense is more reliable than Pittsburgh’s, but their bullpen is the opposite. I’ll take the more reliable starter over the more reliable offense with the bullpen kicker. However, I am asking for trouble when it comes to the run line bet with a low-producing offense. Musgrove and the Pittsburgh bullpen will need to bring their A-game, though a poor outing from Godley will not hurt at all. I will likely have some thoughts on my run line betting in tomorrow’s article, regardless of this game’s outcome.
WAGER: Pirates RL +150
NY Yankees @ LA Angels
Injuries, injuries, injuries. The Yankees have managed to tread water and post an 11-10 record despite a laundry list of guys on the IR. They put up 22 runs in their last 3 games against KC mostly without Aaron Judge. J.A. Happ leads the charge into LA, looking to cut down on giving up the long ball against Mike Trout and the Angels. So what’s not to like?
Matt Harvey has not been good beyond the season opener, although it can be argued that the on-field results were fluky to a degree and may be hard to replicate again in short time. Then again, he could get pummeled by the Yankees patchwork lineup. Despite dropping 3 of their last 4 to Seattle, LA is 7-4 at home and has an understated lineup that can produce runs. Never count out Mike Trout against a sub-par pitcher. This one feels like a mismatch, but in actuality should be favorable to the Halos. “Should” never made anybody any money so we’ll see if they can produce.
