Yesterday’s 5 plays started with a dud and ended on the west coast with 3 very disappointing outcomes. The 1-4 result cost -2.65 units and was the most costly day of the young season. In fact, this week has been a gut punch on the run line, shedding 8.1 units despite some gains with underdogs. When I woke up this morning, I looked through my daily wager records from the last couple years to get my head straight. And while this slump is not what I’m looking for, I was encouraged to have seen 5 similar weeks in those 2 seasons…winning seasons.
Without dwelling too much in the past (especially the recent past), it’s time to fire on some wagers for a Big Saturday. That’s the plan, at least. I’m wondering if going 6-0 is too much to ask…
Chicago White Sox @ NY Yankees
The Yankees have been one of the most painful sides for bettors this season, especially those willing to lay the lumber on the money line. They got outgunned last night 9-6 by the White Sox to open the series in the Bronx. Gary Sanchez left to join half his team on the IR while Happ got knocked around for 6 runs in the rain-shortened game. The Yankees got to Giolito for 6 as well, but their pen couldn’t hold it together.
C.C. makes his debut this afternoon after the rain passes. I’m not expecting much out of him today, probably 5 innings with some laboring in a couple difficult scenarios. Despite last night’s performance (and injuries), I think their bullpen sets up fine today. The Yankees are on a 4-game skid that started with a sweep in Houston, but last night’s loss was not for a lack of offense.
Chicago’s Ivan Nova faces his old club and probably wants nothing more than to get a strong win in New York. So far this year, he’s been a coin flip guy: great in one start, lit up in another. He dominated Cleveland but got bounced in the 3rd inning by the Mariners. The White Sox have a below-average offense, which isn’t necessarily that far behind the current Yankees lineup. Their bullpen is typically bad, so Nova’s performance is extremely important to reduce their exposure. This is a tough position for me to take given the injuries, but I have to discount Chicago’s offensive output last night and expect Nova to have a short outing.
WAGER: Yankees RL +105
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
You have to give the club from the Motor City a ton of credit for being where they’re at right now. Everyone expects them to fade eventually, but they don’t seem to be in a hurry to get there. Tyson Ross pitched well for them in 2 starts against KC & NYY, though he may have a tougher time this afternoon against a Twins team that has scored 6+ runs in 3 of their last 4 games.
Michael Pineda has been fairly sharp in his 2 starts, but has not gone very deep in them. Minnesota’s bullpen is not the greatest so they’re going to need at least 5 solid innings from him. 6 would be ideal; though a stretch, it’s not impossible given the low on-base and scoring efficiency metrics of the Tigers. Detroit’s Ross is the key in this one: if the Twins can get 3 runs off of him, they have a good shot of cashing the run line ticket.
WAGER: Twins RL +110
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
The Pirates are fresh off a 6-3 upset of the Nationals last night and look for another result just like it. Despite a couple recent duds where they failed to score, they’re 8-2 in the last 10 games and are 4-2 as the underdog this season. Chris Archer takes the mound as a short dog. He’s pitched very well so far this season, as expected by the Pirates considering the young pieces they dealt for him last year. Archer has kept the bases fairly clear and has been striking guys out at a good clip. I expect Archer and Pittsburgh’s very good bullpen to steer this game towards a Pirates win.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Anibal Sanchez and one of the shakiest bullpens in the league. Sanchez has faced the Phillies twice and struggled, though the Pirates lineup is not nearly as daunting at theirs. The Nationals clearly have an offensive advantage, but can they break through against Archer and his relievers? If Sanchez struggles again today, the difference in this game could very well be the Nationals’ bullpen that was stretched last night and is poor to begin with.
WAGER: Pirates +109
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Philly backers enjoyed a rocking chair win against young ace Sandy Alcantara last night. Zach Eflin gets the start this evening in Miami with the goal to get the Phillies back on track after a couple bad losses against the Nationals. Eflin is prohibiting baserunners and runs: the perfect combination. He faces a weaker Marlins lineup and is backed by good hitters with power.
Caleb Smith tries to get a rare win for the Marlins, who have dropped 9 of their last 10. 6 of those 9 losses were by 2 runs or more. (You can see where I’m going with this.) Caleb needs his A-game tonight, which he has shown this season by notching 15 Ks and only 3 walks. The Phillies are going to have to earn this win against a good changeup and slider. If they can get him out after 5 innings, Philadelphia gets to face a sub-par bullpen.
WAGER: Phillies RL +105
NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves
The Mets’ bats have been on a tear, scoring at least 6 runs in 9 of their last 10 games. They’re 7-1 on the road and 4-2 as the underdog. So why is the Braves logo over to the left? The biggest element in handicapping MLB games is often starting pitching. Jason Vargas gets the nod today after being skipped in his last scheduled start. His first start against Miami was respectable, but came out of the bullpen on April 9th for 1 inning and imploded. His weakness can be serving up too many fly balls, which is a major liability against this good-hitting Braves club.
His counterpart, Sean Newcomb, can struggle with his control at times and can frustrate hitters as well. It is important to get his curve in the strike zone and not give up free passes, which can be his weakness and will certainly be exploited by the Mets. Atlanta’s bullpen was stretched last night, though they should still have a clear advantage over New York’s. Newcomb looks to get his team back on track after losing 2 to the Mets, which put the brakes on a 7-1 run prior to that. His performance today is a concern but this play is a strong fade against Jason Vargas.
WAGER: Braves RL +150
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Matt Strahm leads NL West leader San Diego to face a struggling Diamondbacks club. The Padres have taken the first 2 games of this series by 1 run after losing 2 of 3 to Arizona last week, extending their run to 7-2. Strahm can be trouble to hitters if his curve is on. Although he was roughed up by Arizona on April 1st, he rebounded with a good start against the Cardinals. San Diego has generally relied on solid pitching to squeeze out some close wins on this run.
Merrill Kelly is the guy Arizona needs to be the stopper. His April 1st outing against the Padres was by no means smooth, but he is coming off a strong 8-inning performance against the Red Sox. He’s given up 1 home run in each start, so there is some caution with serving up quick runs to Manny and his crew. The Diamondbacks have lost 4 of their last 5 games but are hitting at a .302 clip against righties. Kelly has the ability to go deep in this one and put it in the hands of a capable bullpen.
