PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-5

SEASON RESULTS:
15-8-1

Week 3 Recap:

It’s not the end of the world to wrap up a weekend of player props with a 3-5 mark. It feels hollow though after the successful first two weekends we saw a regression that was capped with some garbage yards by Drew Brees allowing him to go over his yardage total. . Give the books some credit as they had the totals dialed in pretty close. The bets we hit were pretty close as Devin Singletary and Kareem Hunt narrowly squeaked past their totals. While the ones we lost were also close with Matthew Stafford missing by less than an average completion of hitting his. Our big regret was playing a banged up John Brown over as he hobbled through a couple of series before heading to the sidelines for the rest of the day never threatening his catch total with zero targets.

Week 4 Preview:

For the first time in the 2020 season we’re seeing COVID-19 impacting the NFL as the Steelers-Titans game has been postponed and there is some uncertainty with the game between the Patriots and Chiefs as well due to Cam Newton and others testing positive. We had to do a little shuffling, but our favorite plays were not really impacted, at least at the time of writing this article. We’re heavy on the overs once again, and for the third time in four games we’re fading the passing yards of the greatest quarterback in the history of the game. We have a one-off prop with another pretty legendary veteran QB as well. Here’s to hoping we can get these games played, and have a winning week with our player props.

Our Picks:

James Robinson – Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

A guy that’s flying a bit under the radar in the world of running backs is the Jaguars rookie James Robinson. The team loved what they saw from Robinson in the preseason to cut former first round pick Leonard Fournette, paving the way for Robinson to become the featured attraction. Robinson hasn’t disappointed so far rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns and averaging nearly 5 yards per carry. Sunday he’ll take on a Bengals defense that has struggled again stopping the run. In fairness, they’ve been without a pair of their defensive tackles including perennial Pro Bowler Geno Atkins and free agent acquisition Mike Daniels, who will both be out again in this contest. Robinson is a candidate for a 100 yard day, so with a total of 61.5 it’s definitely good value to take the over here.

Dalvin Cook – Over 78.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Regression is a part of sports gambling and also production of NFL players. It’s quite simply just the law of averages. Dalvin Cook is averaging just under 100 yards per game on the ground through the teams 0-3 start. It’s unlikely he’ll maintain that average for the entire year. We’re banking on the fact he’ll keep the pace up for at least one more week as he has a very favorable matchup against the Houston Texans in a game both teams are desperate to win. No team has given up more rushing yards thus far than the Texans who are allowing opposing runners to average 5.2 yards per carry. The offseason loss of their big defensive tackle D.J. Reader is proving an even bigger loss early on than what most anticipated. As is the case with the Vikings, as long as they don’t fall into an early large deficit, plan to see a lot of Cook as this is definitely another match where he should be able to crack the 100 yard barrier.

Dalton Schultz – Over 34.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

If you haven’t been paying attention to the Dallas Cowboys, you might not have realized this team throws for a lot of yards. No secrets there, but it is still a little bit hidden in the fact that their backup tight end Dalton Schultz is a big beneficiary of all of the attention that teams have to pay to the wide receivers and Ezekiel Elliott. A shootout is expected between the Browns and Cowboys and Cleveland has not done well covering tight ends. It’s a small sample size, but Schultz has averaged 68 yards receiving in his two games since replacing the injured Blake Jarwin. We need far less than that in order to hit this over.

Cooper Kupp – Over 4.5 Receptions (-130)

The Los Angeles Rams offense looked 2018-esque in their come back attempt against the Bills in week three. Jared Goff was slinging the ball around the yard and Cooper Kupp was running open in a variety of formation. The Rams return to LA where Goff and Cupp have played their best football and you have to feel like this offense has really gotten things sorted out. A friendly matchup with the struggling New York Giants is next on the calendar and Cupp should be positioned to see a lot of targets. The Giants secondary has been a mixed bag with James Bradberry and Jabril Peppers playing fantastic football, but Isaac Yiadom and Julian Love really having trouble. Peppers will not be suiting up Sunday and Bradberry will matched up more frequently with Robert Woods than with Kupp. For the type of routes and receiver Cooper Kupp is, he should be well-positioned to have a nice game.

Tom Brady – Under 265.5 Yards Passing (-110)

One win and one loss on our fade Tom Brady yardage tour so far in his first season in Tampa Bay. The rubber match comes in a game against the LA Chargers, a team that really throttled Patrick Mahomes just two weeks ago. With Brady’s strong performance in week three, his total has risen to a fairly lofty 265.5 and we’re going under all the way for two key reasons. The primary reason is their opponent, who has done a nice job of pressuring opposing quarterbacks, something that Brady has struggled with, as most quarterbacks do. Joey Bosa is dinged up, and Melvin Ingram is out, but this defense is still a quality unit. The other big key to Brady staying under is he will be without WR Chris Godwin who tweaked his injury and will miss the contest. This offense goes from a matchup nightmare, to a more defensible group without Godwin opposite of Mike Evans as coverage can be rolled. Let’s see if Brady can carry this offense as he has often needed to do throughout his illustrious career.

Philip Rivers – Over .5 Interceptions (-110)

We don’t generally get involved with props that focus on something as finite as an interception being thrown, however it’s 2020 and everything is a little wacky. With “normal” juice on the over and under a pick for new Colts quarterback Philip Rivers, it definitely seems worth a flyer to take the over. Rivers has been an absolute interception machine going back to last season and even when he performs well overall, he still seems to find a defensive player at least once each game. (There are a couple of exceptions in his last 19 games, but not too many). In what is a sneaky good game, the Colts take on the Bears, a team that is as good as any in the league during that same time period at taking away the football. This isn’t the same fearsome Bears defense we were seeing in 2018, yet they’re still more than capable of taking the ball away from Rivers. The over interception prop is always slightly weighted in that direction to begin with as things like end of half or game hail marys or tipped passes can instantly crush an otherwise flawless performance from a quarterback.

Tyler Boyd – Over 57.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

We loaded up on overs with Tyler Boyd more than any other player last season and he paid off for us more often than not. With rookie Joe Burrow taking the job in Cincinnati we waited to see how things would materialize this season and are now ready to get back on the Boyd bandwagon. Boyd may be the best receiver in the league that people never talk about. It could be partly because he’s on a team with A.J. Green, first round pick Tee Higgins, and other talents John Ross and Auden Tate. At this point it’s pretty clear that Boyd is now the number one receiver in the unit. A.J. Green hasn’t been able to get on the same page with Burrow, Higgins has been up and down as you’d expect from a rookie, and Ross and Tate have not been a part of the gameplan yet this season. The Bengals haven’t run the ball well and Joe Mixon is banged up which means in what could be a little bit of a “backyard” type game with the Jaguars, Boyd could be in line for a lot of targets.

Will Fuller V – Over 64.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

If Tyler Boyd is one of the best receivers most people haven’t heard of, the opposite can be said of Will Fuller V. In his young career he’s had a few monstrous games and is regarded as a talented speedster and gamebreaker. When you really look at his performance, outside a few of those huge statlines, Fuller has really underperformed. We faded him in a tough contest with the Ravens and he was completely shutout. It’s apparent that without DeAndre Hopkins that Fuller has to really have the right matchup for him to be a big factor. The good news for the Texans is they will have that matchup as they’ll tackle an underachieving Vikings team in a loser’s season is basically over game. Out of all of our prop plays this weekend, this one is probably based more on gut feeling than historical data, but this seems like the type of game where Fuller will go off. The Vikings have given up big plays, and Deshaun Watson should have a good game. With the speed of Fuller, it only takes a big play or two for him to get the cover.