Previous Week Plays – 2-1
Season Record – 8-3
Week 3 Recap:
Our original card for week three only had 2 plays as we simply weren’t in love with a lot on the slate. We added a third play late with the under in the Packers/Saints contest once Davante Adams looked like he’d be ruled out. Our initial picks were both relatively smooth covers as the Vikings played a tight one with the Titans as suspected with both teams staying committed to the run. Our teaser bet was really never in serious jeopardy as the Browns took control of their game with Washington in the second quarter, and the Buccaneers were never tested by the depleted Broncos. Adding the third play turned out to cost us another perfect weekend as the neither the Saints nor Packers were able to cover or tackle and the under was crushed with about a quarter left to play. When dump off passes that should go for one yard end up going for 50+ yard touchdowns, unders are in serious trouble.
Week 4 Picks:
We’ll save you some time in potentially reading or not reading this article by letting you know from the start we’ve got some square bets going in week number four. If laying points on the road, or betting on large spreads isn’t your thing, and you want to tap out now, we get it. If there is anything we’ve learned in the year 2020, it’s that nothing is what it seems and that includes betting in the NFL. Over point totals are hitting at a record clip, injuries are even more prevalent than normal, and we have our first postponed game due to COVID-19. Sticking with a system that works is still the gameplan, however, we’re taking some calculated risks this weekend. We’ve got three games against the spread, a game point total as well as a team point total, and as usual worked in a mathematical teaser.
Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders
vs. 
Buffalo Bills (3-0) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (2-1)
Sunday October 4th
4:25pm
CBS
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Buffalo Bills -3 (-120)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
When you think of the Bills and the Raiders you may picture hard-hitting smashmouth low-scoring football. It’s going to be anything but that when these teams meet in the second home game for the Las Vegas Raiders. Offenses should be trading punches in what is a potentially important inter-conference matchup in the AFC.
With all of the highlight reel plays from Patrick Mahomes, it might surprise you to know that it’s Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, who was named the AFC offensive player of the month in September. Allen has been red hot throwing the football and spreading it around to a variety of weapons. The Raiders have struggled defensively and they have some matchup problems all over the field against the Bills. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has put together some really creative plans that have maximized what Allen and this offense can do. This team can run the football and Devin Singletary should have another solid performance, but it’s the passing game and legs of Josh Allen that will give the Raiders trouble. Stefon Diggs has been everything the team had wanted when acquiring him for their first round draft choice and he is in line for a big day. If you haven’t see rookie WR Gabriel Davis play, he has big-time potential and with the injury to John Brown he should also see some open targets. Really what we’re watching for in this game is whether or not Josh Allen can continue his stellar play and get a tough road win for a team that has big playoff dreams?
The Bills aren’t the only team that has favorable matchups as the Raiders offense has proven they can score points and move the football as well. The Bills are going to be thin on the interior of their defensive line as they’re probably going to be without defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson. That’s not good news when facing a between the tackles runner like Josh Jacobs. Keep an eye out for our player prop article Sunday morning as it’s very possible we’ll playing the over yardage total for Jacobs. Moving to the passing game this will be the key battle of this game and determine who comes away with the victory. The Bills secondary should have the advantage with injuries to Raiders rookies Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. Buffalo bounced back defending the tight end holding down Tyler Higbee last week and will have an even tougher challenge with Darren Waller, particularly with a thin wide receiving corp. The Raiders will be without at least two offensive linemen and Trent Brown is a question mark so Carr could be under some pressure.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite
– The Raiders and Bills totals have each gone Over in every game
If you want to try to keep riding the wave of over point totals, this would be another one you can take a close look at. It’s tough to see either team really slowing down the other with consistency. We said it in the open, laying points on the road in the NFL is not a formula for profit. However, one interesting trend is how well the Bills have done recently as road favorites covering in five of their last six. Make sure you shop this spread and find a -3 and don’t settle for the -3.5 hook even for plus or even money, (they’re still out there) as that gives you some protection with a push if it’s a close game, which it may be.
BetCrushers Take: Buffalo Bills -3
Bills 33, Raiders 27
Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Football
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens(2-1) vs. Washington Football Team(1-2)
Sunday October 4th
1:00pm
CBS
FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Baltimore Ravens -13.5 (-120)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
Two young quarterbacks take the field in Maryland as last year’s MVP Lamar Jackson takes on Dwayne Haskins as each team is looking to bounce back from a loss in week three. For two very different reasons, both of these quarterbacks need to bounce back and play well. Lamar Jackson suddenly has re-heard the critics, after one of his worst statistical performances in an effort where the Ravens were thoroughly dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs. Dwayne Haskins took some criticism from his head coach and whether or not he remains the starter could hinge upon how well he can play moving forward.
The Ravens enter the game with Washington a little banged up on their offensive line, including their stud tackle Ronnie Stanley. They’ll square up with a defensive line that could be short-handed as well with rookie star Chase Young doubtful to take the field. The WFT defense has played tough this season which is pretty much what we thought would be the case. It’s not a bad unit, and they’re tough and feisty both against the run and the pass. They haven’t faced Lamar Jackson though, and more importantly, they haven’t faced a Ravens team coming off of a bitter national loss. Jackson and the Ravens are going to establish the run early and often. And when they do this and can get a lead it opens everything up in the passing game. Expect a bounce back game from the wide receivers and tight ends in this offense as well.
The Chiefs absolutely shredded the proud Baltimore defense on Monday Night Football and that spells trouble for the Washington Football Team. We’re looking for the Ravens defense to come out aggressive and to improve on getting after the quarterback, something they’re ranked dead last in the league in through three weeks. If they can bottle up rookie Antonio Gibson and the running game, things could get really tough for Haskins. The strength of the Ravens defense is at the cornerback position, and short of Terry McLaurin, it will be really tough for Washington to challenge them in the passing game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games
– The Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The Washington Football Team is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
We had to go back almost seven years to the last time we publicly backed a team giving nearly two touchdowns. The good news there is we had the Saints -14 and they won by four touchdowns so at least our track record with a wild play like this is successful. Our choice here simply comes down to this being not only a mismatch on the field, but moreover a statement game for a very talented and well-coached Baltimore Ravens team. Look for the Ravens defense to play much better against inferior competition and plan to see a really good performance from Jackson on the ground and through the air.
BetCrushers Take: Baltimore Ravens -13.5
Ravens 34, Washington Football Team 13
Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (2-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
October 4th
1:00pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under 57 (-115)
If you play fantasy football and like you watching stars and teams that seem to play with high drama then this game is absolutely for you. One of several games this weekend with 50+ point totals takes place in Dallas as the Cowboys high flying offense will play a somewhat quiet 2-1 Cleveland Browns team.
Maybe it’s just us, but we’re still shaking our head and trying to figure out why the Browns offense still isn’t as dynamic as it seems it should be? Last year we pinned it on some mediocre offensive line play and trying to gel as a team. The line is improved but somehow despite having Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper as weapons in the passing game, they still struggle to throw downfield regularly. There are two really good things working in their favor in this game however. First, the Cowboys have been routinely abused in their secondary, so there should be plenty of opportunity to throw the football in space. And maybe more importantly, they may not need to throw much at all, as the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have plenty of success running the ball against the interior of the Cowboys defense. This team misses the toughness of Leighton Vander Esch and it will show up with the Browns powerful combo on Sunday.
In 2020 it is very apparent that the Cowboys best chance to win is to outscore their opponents, something they’ll try to do against Cleveland. Much like the what we discussed with the Browns on offense, the Cowboys would be wise to put the ball into the belly of Ezekiel Elliott. The Browns aren’t terrible defending the run, but they’re also susceptible to a back like Zeke. We know the Cowboys have been spreading it out with their talented trio (turned foursome with Cedric Wilson) at wide receiver and Dak Prescott is going to take shots down the field. It may not be quite as easy for Dak and the offense as it was against the Seahawks, where he feasted without Jamal Adams who left with an injury and no real pass rush to speak of. It looks like Tyron Smith and La’el Collins could both be missing and the Browns and Myles Garrett have to be excited about that. If the Browns can generate a pass rush, it should somewhat neutralize the speed of the Cowboy wide receivers. Whether or not they can establish Elliott early is important to how well they throw the ball in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– 70% of the public money is on the Over
With all of the marquee names and stars in this game, the public is predictably hammering the over which opened around 55 and has climbed from there. It’s certainly possible huge plays could propel this game right into the 60’s, but we’re going to fade the public here and not just for the simple fact of going the opposite direction. Baker Mayfield has really struggled playing on the road throughout his young NFL career. This isn’t just with his win-loss record, but also in points per game and yardage. These teams will both move the ball no doubt, but 57 is a big number and requires a complete shootout really to go over. We’re expecting more work on the ground which should hold this one under if we can get any punts at all along the way.
BetCrushers Take: Under Total – 57
Cowboys 28, Browns 23
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
vs. 
Arizona Cardinals (2-1) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2)
October 4th
1:00pm
FOX
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
Arizona Cardinals -3 (-120)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
Arizona heads across the country to tangle with a game Carolina Panthers team who despite an early losing record has show some splashes of potential. Unfortunately the team, and NFL fans, lost one of the league’s premier talents when Christian McCaffrey was placed on IR. The Panthers will look to find other players to step up and try to get a home win against an Arizona team looking for their third win of the season.
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray came somewhat back to earth on Sunday after a really hot start in the first two games of the season, which can be expected from a young player. He has the luxury of facing a Carolina team that is in a rebuild and really struggling at stopping teams on the ground and through the air. The Cardinals haven’t really gotten their running game going so far in 2020 and this seems to be a spot where Kenyan Drake should really get going. DeAndre Hopkins has been even better in Arizona thus far than he was in Houston and should be well positioned with to his receiving cohorts to make plays to keep the chains moving. In terms of the Panther defense, the one area they have proven they can produce with is with an outside pass rush behind Brian Burns and the edge rushers. Unfortunately for them, Murray thrives when he has room up the middle which he will have in this game. We’ve tried to find a crack in the armor of the Cardinals putting up big points and short of Murray not playing, there just doesn’t seem a way that it would happen.
The Panthers have actually performed pretty well offensively in their own right and it’s a shame they have to play without McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater has been the steady veteran leader they hoped and plays with a calmness that makes this offense better. Without McCaffrey the burden of moving the sticks falls on a talented group of wide receivers led by new addition Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Arizona has been good against the pass overall although they could be missing Budda Baker in the secondary. Bridgewater won’t make the big mistakes, but we it’s possible that we’ll see some punts out of this offense. As always, keep an eye on the battle in the trenches. If the Cardinals can win that, they’ll cruise in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Cardinals are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 9 road games
– The Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games as underdogs
Double-dipping can result in a big payoff or a really disappointing ballgame, so we’re going to be monitoring this game closely needing good things to happen for the Arizona Cardinals. It’s still early in the season, however it seems like when we rewind at the end of the year these teams will be sitting in very different spots. The Cardinals are a legitimate playoff team that is on the rise and coming off of a down performance. The Panthers without McCaffrey just don’t have enough at this point in time to compete for 60 minutes with quality opponents. This should be a huge game for Kyler Murray and the Cardinal offense as they’ll simply outclass a young Carolina team. NOTE – DeAndre Hopkins did not practice Thursday and these wagers are contingent on his practicing Friday and availability.
BetCrushers Take: Cardinals Total – Over 26.5 and -3
Cardinals 31, Panthers 24
Teaser Bet
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2)
Sunday October 4th
1:00pm
FOX
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-110)
Over/Under 54 (-110)
New England Patriots (2-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
Sunday October 4th
4:25pm
CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-105)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: Seattle -1 and Kansas City -1
The Patriots and Chiefs will play each other in one of the highlighted games of the weekend. One game that’s a little under the radar that could end up being a lot of fun is the Seahawks heading down to Miami to take on the Dolphins fresh off their impressive Thursday night win. These are a couple of games that could be pretty tight so if you prefer playing against the spread, we’d encourage you to lean toward the underdogs. We’re taking a slightly different approach as we’d prefer to have Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes as the quarterbacks that we’re backing.
In decades of watching NFL football we can safely say that Russell Wilson has looked as excellent in the first three games of a season as we’ve ever seen. He’s got a juicy matchup against the Dolphins and should continue his hot play as he’s setting up his talented weapons to be very successful. The Dolphins have had trouble again this year slowing down opposing running backs so look for Seattle to start there. Running back Chris Carson may or may not play, but the team is confident in Carlos Hyde and Travis Homer to pick up the slack if he doesn’t go. On the other side of the ball, you have to be encouraged if you are a Dolphins fan seeing the team fight on offense even when overmatched. The matchup they do have working in their favor is with Davante Parker against a Seahawks defense that has struggled as badly as anyone in the league. Without Jamal Adams who is probably going to miss this contest, Miami can at least somewhat keep pace with the Seahawks. Although the Dolphins are improved from a season ago, are they really going to be able to go punch-for-punch with Seattle?
Let’s just go ahead and put it out there right now and say that there really isn’t a reason right now why the Chiefs should lose a game. They proved that with the way they dismantled the Ravens, a team that most believed what their biggest competition in the league. That of course doesn’t mean that they will win every game or this game against the best team of the past 20 years when they play the Patriots. In their first three games the Pats have hitched their wagon to their running game, but Belichick and Josh McDaniels are smart enough to know they cannot simply run their way to a victory. The Chiefs have been playing strong defense and that’s going to be tough for New England if they can’t throw it consistently. On the other side of the ball, Belichick faces the predicament every team is facing, which is what weapon does he try to take away on offense? Knowing him, he’s going to play soft and force the Chiefs to move the ball slowly down the field and potentially making a mistake or having to settle for field goals as opposed to quick strikes.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Seahawks are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 road games
– The Dolphins are 6-15 straight up in their last 21 games
– The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games
– The Patriots are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games versus the Chiefs
Is it odd that we’re mildly concerned about the Seahawks in this game against the Dolphins? There is absolutely no reason the Seahawks should lose, but there defense is really bad, and this is a potential letdown game traveling as far across the country as a team can. In the other game, the Patriots are obviously not a slouch of a team as Cam Newton has played well and you know Belichick has had success against Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Really our play here is simple. For starters, the teaser numbers add up and are the correct play to tease touchdown favorites under a field goal. More importantly, we have arguably the two best quarterbacks in the league playing against teams that they should beat. Give us those odds every day of the week.
