vs. 
Houston Texans (0-0) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Thursday September 10th
8:20pm
NBC
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs – 9 (-120)
Over/Under 54.5 (-110)
The 2020 NFL season begins at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City as the Super Bowl champion Chiefs host the Texans in a rematch of a memorable playoff game last January. The Texans look to get revenge after giving up a 24 point lead and watching the Chiefs ride that comeback all the way to Miami and the eventual Lombardi Trophy. Opening night is always filled with a bit of a buzz and having two of the league’s young stars in Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes headlining the match only amplifies the energy we’ll see Thursday evening. One of the fascinating things to watch is how the COVID-related restrictions regarding fans will impact the homefield advantage of the Chiefs, who typically play in one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Ultimately, a day that none of us could be certain would be here is finally upon us, and that’s pretty encouraging.
What We’re Watching
We know the Chiefs have the ability to throw points on the board as well as any team we’ve really ever witnessed. The Texans will look to pressure Mahomes in an effort to rattle him early, but more importantly to give their secondary as much help as possible with the speedy skill position players on the outside. (Let’s be honest, it’s rare that we’ll see Mahomes looking flustered on the football field). Keep an eye on guard Kelechi Osemele who will be taking the spot of Laurent Duvarney-Tardiff, one of the opt outs for the season. If you haven’t read his story it’s a pretty nice feel good type piece, check it out sometime. Osemele has been injured on and off the past couple of seasons, however when he’s been able to play he’s done an acceptable job, and formerly was actually a pretty good player. Although the Chiefs have advantages really everyone on the field on offense, it could be an opportunity for the team to showcase it’s flashy new rookie in running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. A season ago the Texans were strong stopping opposing running backs, but this could prove to be a big issue on Thursday. The safeties are going to be concerned with Travis Kelce and the receiver speed over the top so how much they can help in the running game is a little questionable. More importantly, the Texans big run-stuffer on the defensive line in D.J. Reader has moved on to Cincinnati leaving a literal and figurative hole in the middle. The interior of the Houston defense is pretty mediocre so it’s very possible Edwards-Helaire could make a splash in his NFL debut.
The Texans have some fresh talent of their own to march onto the field, the difference being it may not be an upgrade from where they were in 2019. Both newly acquired RB David Johnson and the returning Duke Johnson should see lots of action in the running and passing game. The Texans have some speed guys of their own at wide receiver so if it becomes a track meet we could see Will Fuller V and Brandin Cooks also have some big games. (Cooks is questionable, trending to play). We have to wonder out loud though if Hopkins not having his main target in DeAndre Hopkins is going to a big issue? And was the occasional monster game from Will Fuller when healthy more a result of the attention paid to Hopkins?
Let’s not forget the coaching in this football game. One of the games most respected and successful coaches in Andy Reid is squaring off against one who is often referred to as the most laughable and incompetent in the league in Bill O’ Brien. In the NFL coaching truly does matter and when Andy Reid has extra time he is an impressive record, including opening weekend. Circle things back to the homefield question mark and if there would be any kind of Super Bowl letdown by Kansas City and there are no shortage of storylines to check out in this ballgame.
Key Trends and Indicators
Houston is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday Night games
Houston is 1-4 straight up in their last 5 season openers
Kansas City is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games
Kansas City is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games versus AFC opponents
Kansas City is 8-0 straight up in their last 8 games as a favorite
The total has gone over in 4 of the past 6 games between the two teams
The total has gone over in the past 5 season openers for Kansas City
BetCrushers Take:
It’s really easy to get caught up in the rush and excitement of opening night in the NFL. We’re slightly guilty of that as well as we’ll have some action rolling, well, just because. For the purpose of this article though, we want to make the rational and smart explanation of what we feel should happen with this game.
All you have to do is look back at this playoff matchup that saw the Texans leap out to a fast and furious lead, only to see the Chiefs strike back with a flurry of their own punches to know that anything could really happen here. That being said, the oddsmakers seem to have this one pegged pretty closely to what our predictive models do as well. We’ve got it pegged around a 10 point Chief win and right around the point total. That makes betting the game against the spread really tough to do. If you’ve followed the BetCrushers previously you’re aware we often play teasers when the numbers line up correctly. This is one of those instances, although it requires a little extra juice. In order to get the number to -2.5 it will require a 6.5 point tease which at most books will run you -130. Although that’s pricier than we’d prefer, to get some action opening night we’re rolling with it. As you can see we’re a little split, although close with our leans, which makes the teaser the best play for us. We’ve gone ahead and paired the first game of week 1 with one we feel is going to be a blowout in Jacksonville making the Colts -1.5. (Be sure to check out our week one picks/plays article that will be released Friday. This is going to be a fun and unique season, play wisely and let’s make some profit.
