On a day that saw our Cincinnati Reds play get rained out, we experienced highs and lows. The lowest low was my lapse in judgement to grab the Yankees -185 on the run line. Should be able to smash the Orioles, right? The only redeeming factor is that we weren’t sucker enough to lay the -330, but that’s just a higher degree of sucker play. That’s why you can’t lay those numbers if you want to survive the long haul. My bad; time to move on.
The highs were plentiful though. Calculated risks on three other mid-range run lines came through for me and the BetCrushers Team. These are the types of wagers you cannot expect to hit very often by their very nature. At this point in the season, game handicapping is derived from our pre-season projections. These types of plays have high variance but solid EV.
Milwaukee’s bullpen finally lived up to our expectations, holding down a +160 RL win. Goldy was held to 1-4 on the night and Hader came in to strike out the side in the 9th. Pure gas. The Brewers continue to live by the long ball (and die by the strikeout…yes, I’m talking to you, Eric Thames) but it was all about crafty pitching today.
A pair of less sexy plays were just as rewarding. The Royals deliver +170 on the run line, but you had to stomach a shaky bullpen performance to see them outlast the White Sox 8-6. Toronto completely shut down the Tigers 3-0 and scored their backers a modest +148 along the way.
D-backs, and Godley more specifically, were overmatched by the Dodgers and their big bats. Maeda held it down and ate up some serious innings for the tired bullpen. Even with the terrible Yankees -185 bet loss, we have a nice recovery day to get back to +2.88 units on the young season. Let’s get to today’s action…
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
The breakdown from yesterday is a simple cut-and-paste due to the rainout and a bump of Saturday’s starters to today.
Sonny Gray takes the mound for the new-look Reds. Cincy was very active in the offseason, bolstering their outfield and adding some actual starting pitchers to the rotation. The Pirates’ youngster Trevor Williams isn’t a high-K guy but he doesn’t fall prey to the long ball as much. I don’t expect much out of the Pittsburgh lineup (which many don’t) but anything goes when these two NL Central rivals get together.
Back to Gray: it is hard to expect brilliance out of him, but he could get out to a good start this season against the Pirates hitters. His stint with the Yankees fell well below expectations though his services are well above the Reds’ rotation level in 2018. The big question for the Redlegs is how well their offense will gel early in the season, especially without Gennett in the mix. Nonetheless, the price should be right to take an early shot on some Reds firepower this afternoon.
At the time of publication, no lines were set for this game.
WATCHLIST: Reds RL range +145 or greater
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins
I expect a good bounce back season from Jon Gray that should result in more Ks back and less walks. His season begins this afternoon against one of the lowest of the low teams in MLB. And that team just happens to have played as close to a perfect game as they could have expected last night. This situational handicapping angle is coupled with the numbers that support a general team edge for the Rockies.
Alcantara is prone to control issues, which certainly plays in Colorado’s favor. We all know that the Rockies’ metrics must be adjusted on the road but this type of opposing pitcher plays into their hands nicely. Colorado should get enough guys on base to manufacture some runs. Since power isn’t necessarily their calling card, there is no major dropoff for playing in Miami’s massive yard.
WAGER: Rockies RL +115
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Dare to dip into this well yet again? The Brew Crew have been a play of mine for their last two games and they’re queued up for a third to close out their series with the Cardinals. There may be some concern with bullpen availability and effectiveness for Milwaukee, although yesterday’s 4 IP from the pen were very efficient. I’m willing to downplay this aspect because their coaching staff has been adept in managing their relievers well in recent history.
The effectiveness of Michael Wacha is an unknown that many fans in St. Louis are aware of. I’m willing to fade him today and look for young Corbin Burnes to outduel Wacha and send it to the bullpen with a lead. Not to sound like a broken record player, but this likely comes down to whether Milwaukee lets Goldschmidt beat them or not. Look for more consistent hitting from the Brewers and a solid win to close out the series.
WAGER: Brewers RL +166
LA Angels @ Oakland A’s
This AL West matchup looks to be another low-scoring game that emphasizes crafty pitching and the ability to close it out. While neither Skaggs or Montas are lock-down starters, solid efforts are expected in the A’s spacious park. Long balls aren’t expected so it’s going to come down to who can best convert baserunners into runs. This aspect is a toss-up between these clubs, but give the edge to the home team and their substantial bullpen. As long as the big guns in the pen can shake off Friday’s meltdown, Oakland should deliver the win.
WAGER: A’s -102
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Here we go again with another value grab. It panned out yesterday with the Toronto 3-0 shut out and it’s worth a go again today. We’ve got a pair of offenses that struggle to produce (Detroit’s being slightly worse) and average-level bullpens. The Jays’ Thornton can be susceptible to the long ball, though it should be less of a factor in this matchup. His counterpart, Matt Moore, has bounced around without much success and I’m doubtful that he’ll get much run support today.
