What an odd way to get here, but the NASCAR Playoffs have arrived! The field of 16 contenders was set when William Byron survived Daytona’s late fireworks and punched his postseason ticket with a big win. I expect that intensity to carry through on Sunday. The Cup Series returned from the COVID hiatus over three months ago with a doubleheader at The Track Too Tough to Tame. Now, the ten race sprint to the 2020 NASCAR Championship starts at Darlington Raceway and we are ready to roll!
Surviving Daytona
“We’ve proved that all it takes is one goofball to make a mistake.” You’ve gotta love Ryan Newman, especially after his post-wreck interview at Daytona. Everyone expected late-race chaos, though the action throughout the first two stages was very interesting without any big incidents. There was enough jockeying around to make it a must-see affair. As my mother in-law said, “at least we didn’t have to watch a conga line go around the track for three hours.”
The Stewart-Haas Fords stuck together in the back for most of the race, while William Byron and his Hendrick teammates joined forces with several other Chevies. Their green flag pit strategy allowed them to run single file and make up considerable ground on the crowded pack up front. Joe Gibbs’ Toyotas were not bashful about mixing it up in the lead group. Exhibit A was Denny Hamlin “acceptably” taking out Stage 1 & 2 winner Joey Logano in the race’s last laps.
A Streak is Snapped
Daytona’s volatility is no joke. That’s the primary reason to play superspeedway races close to the vest. My Austin Dillon over Martin Truex, Jr. position lost when AD took damage from the Tyler Reddick/Kyle Busch pileup with eight laps to go. Truex’s ability to dodge a couple late incidents broke up our nine-wager NASCAR winning streak, which was destined to end at some point. Let’s find some winners at Darlington.
The 2020 NASCAR Playoffs
16 competitors will begin their pursuit of the NASCAR Cup Championship at Darlington this weekend. Essentially two playoff berths were up for grabs at Daytona. Outside a long shot winning the race, William Byron, Matt DiBenedetto, and Jimmie Johnson were in play for these final positions. This trio scrapped hard to extend their seasons, with Willy B ultimately sealing the deal via Saturday night’s victory. Not only did Byron make the playoffs, he jumped into the 9th position. Unfortunately, Jimmie Johnson and his Farewell Tour landed out of contention despite a hard-fought race at Daytona.
The Round of 16
The Round of 16 features the OG stock car racing venues of Darlington, Richmond, and Bristol. They’ve been home to stock car racing for 60+ years and are still going strong. I am a big fan of kicking off the run for the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Darlington. This round’s track lengths progressively decrease from Darlington’s 1.366-mile egg to Richmond’s 0.75-mile oval and Bristol’s iconic half-mile colosseum. Not a single superspeedway or cookie-cutter oval is represented in the leadoff triumvirate.
The top half of the playoff field simply needs to continue their strong performances in order to advance to the Round of 12. Nothing is for certain, but Hamlin and Harvick have over 40 points of cushion between them and the precarious 13th position. Several drivers are at risk of being cut after Bristol, including both of the Busch Brothers. Expect to see the intensity cranked up with each race leading up to the finale at Phoenix. I appreciate this field of Cup Series stalwarts combined with crafty vets like Clint Bowyer and the young talent of Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and rookie Cole Custer.
Turning Up the Heat at Darlington
Many continue to say that 2020 has been an unusual year in the sports world. Another piece of evidence in support of this comes to light this weekend when The Lady in Black hosts its third Cup Series race this season. After all, it’s been 15 years since Darlington Raceway held more than one Cup race. You won’t get any complaints from me.
In retrospect, the pair of races here in May provided a taste of what was yet to come. Kevin Harvick scored a win in the first race back from the COVID hiatus. It was the first of seven victories for The Closer that proved instrumental in claiming the 2020 Regular Season Championship. He needed each of those wins to hold off the Darlington encore winner, Denny Hamlin. Denny stayed clean in the rain-shortened mid-week race and racked up his second of six checkered flags this year. I expect these two to vie for their third Top 5 finishes at the Track Too Tough to Tame this weekend.
Past Meets Present
Despite the fact that Martin Truex, Jr. is red hot, I am on the fence about him cracking the Top 5 on Sunday. Since winning at Darlington in 2016, he’s placed no better than 6th in the last five here. The biggest problem with expecting this “drought” to continue is how he rolled into Daytona with seven straight Top 3 performances. That streak ended with an impressive 4th place finish, though I doubt the #19 team is unhappy with the outcome. Price will dictate how – or if – MTJ gets my money this weekend.
Erik Jones finds himself on the outside looking in after failing to capitalize at Daytona to make a push for the NASCAR Championship at Darlington. I give him a lot of credit for racing hard and being in position to save his season. The harsh reality of Daytona is that drivers have very little control over their fate. Jones will not return to Joe Gibbs racing in 2021, veiling the upcoming race with uncertain motivation. After all, the kid is racing for a job somewhere next sesason. He hit the restart on the right foot with 8th & 5th place finishes here, marking Top 10 finishes in all five of his Cup races at The Lady in Black. Erik presents yet another handicapper’s dilemma, where current form and track-specific success clash.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
The underlying sentiment in our Darlington previews (first race and encore) still hold merit in my handicapping for Sunday’s contest. It’s all about price and how that relates to valuation – and for matchups, value is a relative measure. This week’s opener is HEAVILY skewed toward May winners Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin. After all, these guys combined to win half of the regular season races and are undoubtedly focused on winning the 2020 NASCAR Championship with another Darlington victory.
A Kurt Busch Kind of Joint
One of my few regrets betting the 2020 NASCAR season was passing on Kurt Busch to finish Top 10 in first Darlington race. Apparently, -118 was too expensive for me in May. Was it the uncertainty of the COVID layoff? Doubtful, considering that I made a very uncharacteristic six wagers on that race. One of the day’s five wins came behind Kurt as a pick ’em to Jimmie Johnson with the following logic:
I will not be surprised if both of these Camaros post single-digit finishes on Sunday but I handicap Kurt Busch with a firm edge over Jimmie Johnson at Darlington. Outside of his accident in 2016, Kurt found his way to a finish no worse than 7th place despite driving for two teams and two manufacturers in that stretch.
NASCAR’s Return: Handicapping Who’s on the Move – BetCrushers.com – May 10, 2020
Kurt delivered a strong 3rd place finish in NASCAR’s return to racing. The matchup play was a slam dunk when Jimmie succumbed to an early accident. Despite posting a lackluster 15th in the mid-week encore, the senior Busch Brother still has put up five Top 10s in the last seven Darlington races. This includes the 2016 bust out with just 41 laps to go. (MTJ won that race, by the way.) It’s playoff time, so does the calculus change in this scenario? I doubt it, especially since Kurt and Aric are both veterans under similar pressure to advance to the next round.
Kurt Busch +125 vs. Aric Almirola
Why fade Almirola? For starters, price. A dog position of +125 for Kurt Busch is quite meaty against anyone not named Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick. The early matchup menu pitted Busch against AA, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Blaney. Almirola presented the best return of the three. Why is that? All three of them have not realized much success at Darlington, with the exception of Bowman’s runner-up finish in May’s return to racing.
Aric Almirola outraced Kurt Busch in the last five races to close out the 2020 regular season. AA also beat him in the second Darlington race this year. Aside from that contest, Kurt came out on top in five of the six previous races at The Lady in Black. Aric went on a scary mid-season run with five straight Top 5s and nine straight Top 10s – undoubtedly a key factor of oddsmakers when setting this price. The +125 was way too high at a “Kurt track” like Darlington where he has a scary good record since 2015. Kurt Busch at +100 or better against Aric Almirola is a strong play for me at The Track Too Tough to Tame.
Kurt Busch -112 to Top 10
If Kurt Busch intends on keeping the #1 team alive for the NASCAR Championship picture, he must capitalize at Darlington. Although I am not a “must win” motivational handicapper, the reality is that Busch needs to make a big score on points on Sunday night. Richmond has been less kind to him in recent years and could potentially set Kurt back if he cannot seize this prime opportunity to gobble up points. Everyone in the #1 Stewart-Haas Racing camp knows this and should be primed for the occasion. I have no problem leaning heavily on Kurt Busch to race like a savvy veteran and work his way into a solid Top 10 finish at Darlington.
Richmond Awaits
The 2020 NASCAR Playoffs roll into Richmond next weekend for the middle leg of the Round of 16. Prepare yourself for 400 intense laps on the short track Sunday night by connecting with us on Twitter. Be sure to visit our NASCAR page to catch our early moves and content. Football season is on the brink and Yanni’s NFL previews are what you need to be prepared. Subscribe below to have our content delivered straight to your inbox:
