The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship landscape just got rockier. Strong work by the teams on top combined with Ryan Blaney’s must-win execution ushers in a dicey Round of 8. Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville stand in the way of four drivers punching their ticket into Championship contention at Phoenix. Which means that half of the field gets cut after Richmond. So it’s a matter of which half that we’re faced with handicapping.
Round of 12 Prediction Recap
Texas was unkind to Kyle Busch while Chris Buescher again showed that momentum combined with RFK’s dedication to incremental gains is leading the #17 team to new heights. Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex Jr. were two of our top five at Texas but proved that forecast to be a swing-and-miss in part due to Reddick’s execution woes and MTJ’s wheel spinning. Joining in Busch’s pain was 2021 Champion Kyle Larson, whose late-race spin pushed him down to 8th in the standings going into a feisty Talladega contest. And speaking of feisty, Ryan Blaney’s Talladega Hail Mary was indeed answered as Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, and Kyle Busch left Alabama with an uphill battle in Charlotte.
The problem with that uphill battle at the Roval came with AJ Allmendinger’s domination and capturing the checkered flag. Good for the Kaulig Racing crew, bad for the bottom four of the playoff field. Keselowski, Chastain, Wallace, and Busch found their Championship bids come to a close without a win-and-in last weekend. It didn’t take complex math to project Ross and Bubba as “in need of a miracle” there given their lack of playoff points. For Brad and Kyle, unfortunately, Talladega took most of the wind out of their sails.
And Then There Were 8
Now the plot thickens with just one more round to go before whittling down the field to the Championship Four. Margins of error are as slim as they’ve been all season. Past Cup Series Champions Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson start the Round of 8 on the right side of the cut line with six strong challengers fighting for the same prize. Veteran Denny Hamlin and established threat William Byron round out the top four coming into the round but a stacked bottom half certainly cannot be ignored. So let’s try to get a handle on what Las Vegas, Homestead-Miami, and Martinsville will throw at this live bunch of contenders!
Getting Dicey at Las Vegas
A Hendrick 1-2-3 finish this spring at Las Vegas bodes well for Kyle Larson and William Byron – the latter scoring his first win of the 2023 season in the Nevada desert. Plus Willy B scooped up a win in the Round of 12 at Texas, a secondary comp track in the eyes of Ryan at ifantasyrace.com. His standard 1.5-mile intermediate grouping includes Kansas, Michigan, Charlotte, Fontana, and Texas. But you could expand this into a larger, more generic intermediate track grouping for more comps if needed. That said, Las Vegas rewards speed and retaining track position compared to the following week’s venue Homestead-Miami.
Unsurprisingly, our top two drivers at Las Vegas will be a recurring theme across all three of the Round of 8 tracks. Whether you love them or hate them, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson are strong contenders with close competition from teammates Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, and Chase Elliott – a threat who is still contending for a driver’s title on behalf of Mr. H. These names should not be a surprise as this vanilla intermediate oval usually rewards the big teams with the hardware. Exhibit A being the last five Las Vegas winners: William Byron, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson.
Potential Movers at Las Vegas
Assuming that the chalk will bring winning speed and skill to Las Vegas, the task becomes handicapping the movers near or below the cut line. Who is best situated to take advantage of a stumble from one or two of the top remaining drivers?
- Tyler Reddick 🔺- Reddick is the most likely candidate to move closer to – or above – the cut line after Las Vegas. Three P7 or better finishes in his last four here with commensurate ratings puts him in close company with the top four. Good numbers on the comps and a win at Kansas in the opening round prop up his prospects.
- Chris Buescher🔻- What’s with my lower expectations for the #17 team again?!? Buescher has been rock solid in the postseason despite not having a championship-caliber historical record on most of the playoff tracks. And Las Vegas may not be any different purely based on those numbers. Outside of Texas a couple weeks back, the remaining RFK playoff entry has not risen to the top on the high-speed intermediates unless you also consider Michigan in this scenario. Tyler Reddick and/or Christopher Bell could jump ahead of Buescher if his macro gains don’t translate to Vegas.
- Christopher Bell 🔺 – This expectation comes in spite of C-Bell’s failure to produce at Vegas in the postseason. He’s been a Top 10 driver in the spring races but the October versions have eluded the #20 team to date. Good finishes and speed on the comparable intermediates this season point toward a good run this weekend, but is this expectation bettable? If Bell can shake his postseason Vegas funk, look for the kid to move ahead of someone like Chris Buescher and/or a stumbling top-half driver.
There’s No Place Like Homestead
The former home of the Championship race still plays a big part in the postseason. Homestead-Miami shares some commonalities with the other 1.5-mile ovals except that “tire wear is extreme” here (@ifantasyrace). Track position takes a back seat to fresh tires, much like it does at Darlington and Fontana. This additional variance should add a touch more intrigue into this middle race of the Round of 12 before heading to Martinsville.
Anything can go on these high-wear tracks, especially with playoff pressure squeezing the remaining eight teams. Denny Hamlin is notorious for conserving tires and producing at the likes of Darlington and Homestead. Maybe not this year so much, although the Southern 500 was all but his for the taking. And took is what Kyle Larson did at Darlington to start off the 2023 playoffs. Plus the #5 is the defending Homestead champ after clocking a P4 in 2021. Excepting Willam Byron, the challenge for the other five teams is a tough group of non-playoff drivers who rate well in Miami and with this track type. Veterans like Logano, Keselowski, Elliott, Busch, and Harvick could take crucial points away from the other five contenders.
Potential Movers at Homestead-Miami
Martin Truex Jr. has the South Florida pedigree to hold position in the standings. But things have not come up roses at Fontana and Darlington this year as high-wear proxies. You could start to make a similar argument against Tyler Reddick, except for that runner-up performance in the Southern 500. Plus Reddick was sharp here in the #8 RCR Chevy. From there, I have a tough time separating Bell, Buescher, and Blaney from one another at Homestead-Miami. A possible differentiating factor: Chris Buescher and Ryan Blaney each turned in a pair of good performances at Darlington this season. What does all this indecision mean? You can just about guarantee that at least one team sitting above the cut line going into the race will find tough sledding and lose their position above the bubble.
The Shorter, the Better at Martinsville
Martinsville’s “Paperclip” is as short as they come on the Cup Series schedule…by a hair, anyways. The 0.526-mile asphalt and concrete track is a unique animal in itself, creating a challenge for comparing drivers’ work this season. It’s a short track. It’s a flat track. But, at the end of the day, it’s Martinsville Speedway and it will eliminate four more teams from Championship contention.
Both Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin rebounded with strong work on The Paperclip in the last couple outings. That’s an understatement for the #5 team, considering they won here earlier in the season after finishing behind C-Bell last fall. Denny finds himself in a position of relative strength primarily due to his work on these shorter, flat tracks in 2023 – much like his teammate Martin Truex Jr. The 3x Martinsville winner MTJ has been hit-or-miss here in the Next Gen car while scoring well at Gateway, New Hampshire, and Richmond this season. This is another race where non-playoff drivers like Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, or even Chase Briscoe could widen the points divide among the playoff field.
Potential Movers at Martinsville
- Ryan Blaney🔺- The #12 has shown good speed on this track type in the Next Gen car while rattling off three straight P7 or better Martinsville finishes. He’s been a factor here for years but will likely need an A+ effort after facing weak spots in the first two races of this round. Blaney has come very, very close here in recent contests and might need a dub to advance.
- Tyler Reddick🔻- Martinsville has not been kind to Tyler in his young Cup career, yielding just one Top 10 finish in seven tries. Plus this track type has not been fruitful to the #45 team. If there is any silver lining around this cloud, look at the speed and ratings they’ve delivered on the shorter, flat tracks in 2023: four top ten marks in seven contests. It may all come down to execution in this elimination race to preserve any gains from the first two races.
Who’s In Our Final Four?
Do we really want to see all chalk in the Championship Race? That could very well happen. But we know better than that. Incidents, lack of execution, and late penalties all pose threats to the top teams’ hopes. Then again, Hamlin, Larson, and Byron are prime threats to win each of the three races. Any of them punching automatic bids to Phoenix takes those golden tickets away from the others.
Chalk ‘Em Up
The strong potential for a race win balanced by the threat of one bad race surrounds the favorites. That said, here are our big three chalky teams to make the Championship Four. Shocking, right?!?
- William Byron – 20 points may not seem like much of a cushion right now. But Willy B and the #24 team have been one of the best this postseason, week in and week out. That cushion plus top-tier consistency will be hard to beat – not impossible, but tough.
- Denny Hamlin – Denny’s 11-point cushion is obviously less strong, although a head start is still a head start. We know he’s a long-game guy on the big-tire wear tracks too. Don’t forget the #11’s strength on the standard ovals and being of the most put together short track crews in the field. Will DH be his own worst enemy once again?
- Kyle Larson – Projecting Larson as one of the Championship Four almost goes without saying. Yet no team is immune to a crucial miscue that buries them in the standings. Kyle’s counterpoint: he’s won on all three of the Round of 8 tracks since joining the #5 team in 2021. These guys have win-and-in written all over them.
Destined For Greatness / Looking For Help
Let’s get wild and handicap a scenario where at least one of favorites vacate their spot in the Championship Four. With one or two berths open, which of these five have the best chances to survive the cut?
- Martin Truex Jr. – Somehow the 2023 Regular Season Champion pushed through the Round of 12 and gets a much-needed reset via a 15 point cushion. You’d think that MTJ would be chalk with this round’s tracks matching his strengths, right? But this postseason has brought nothing but hard times in the form of six P17 or worse finishes. Positive regression ahead, or continued woe? That’s the dilemma with Truex this round.
- Chris Buescher – This is uncharted territory for the #17 crew. The good news is that they’ve responded very well with just one true blemish this postseason. If Buescher maintains his “two steps ahead of 2022” form, these guys are primed to point into the final race.
- Christopher Bell – His 2022 Martinsville playoff victory may have been a fluke considering lack of performance on the short tracks this season. So counting on a last-ditch effort to advance might not pan out for the #20 team. While this crew has been quite steady in the postseason, that might not be good enough as the screws tigthen.
- Tyler Reddick – An 8 point deficit right now is not the end of the world. An 8 point shortfall going into Martinsville probably ends Reddick’s title run. Tyler has plenty of potential to outscore a Buescher or Bell at Vegas and Homestead to have a realistic shot of advancing.
- Ryan Blaney – This #12 team is one of the toughest for me to handicap this season in non-plate races. Las Vegas seems to be safe place despite being a non-factor on most of the general intermediate tracks. And he’s been punished more than his fair share at Miami, so who knows whether Blaney’s recent Darlington success will translate there. I love Blaney at Martinsville – another Hail Mary for a shot in the Championship Four.
