OVERVIEW:
Our first crack at handicapping the XFL ended with some mixed results overall for us. Our leans were fairly accurate and had we wagered on all of the games and totals we would have finished in the black. However, we started slowly with a two-team teaser as our only posted play which came crashing down in the final game of the weekend as the DC Defenders were manhandled in what we’d consider a big upset as 8.5 point favorites. We won’t let that deter us though as there seems to be enough out there with this new league to make some educated wagers moving forward.
The Odds:
Week three saw a slight dip in TV ratings, although attendance was up and overall the league seems encouraged with where things stand after three weekends. The Sportsbooks have also had a mixed bag in terms of their performance against the public. The simple reality is everyone is trying figure out this league at the same time.
We have a play this weekend that we really like and are excited to share it. Ironically, it took a little bit of a mind-shift to discover this however as we’re still adapting to the clear difference of handicapping an NFL football game versus an XFL football game it takes some time to recognize opportunities. We’ll touch on some of the subtleties that we’re learning as we go along a little later in this article. Let’s first take a solid look at the 4 matchups.
Los Angeles Wildcats vs. New York Guardians
Both teams enter this game with a record of 1-2 which initially makes it seem like it will be a close contest, however the spread is sitting with the Wildcats as 7 point favorite for a reason. The Wildcats put together a performance that seems more indicative of who they are as a ballclub behind a strong defense and quarterback Josh Johnson’s first effective game of the season. The Guardians on the other hand seem to be in a bit of a free-fall as they can’t seem to get anything going offensively and have trotted out three different quarterbacks. Their defense has actually held up relatively well, but you have to wonder how long they’ll be able to hold down the Wildcats if their offense continues to struggle? These numbers seem about correct, however we’d need to see a little more out of LA before we felt comfortable playing this one. For fun and tracking we’re going with LA -7 and under 40.
Seattle Dragons vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
The Seattle Dragons leave their friendly stadium and enter what is truly a hostile environment in St. Louis to take on the Battlehawks. The Dragons have fought hard in all of their games and even had a halftime lead last weekend, however they just don’t seem to have enough talent to put together complete games and wins. They are discussing a quarterback change, which might be worth a shot although this would be a tough spot to try to mix things up. The Battlehawks run a steady offense and their power running game should find success against this Seattle defense. Even if their leading rusher Matt Jones is unable to go as he’s listed as questionable, they have Christine Michel ready to take on the lead responsibilities. This game has all of the makings of a blowout. The total is set at just 39 which makes playing the over pretty appealing, however it could be tough for the Dragons to hold up their end of the bargain. Gun to the head we’d take the over, but it’s definitely a risky bet.
Houston Roughnecks vs. Dallas Renegades
A showdown in the Lone Star State as the Roughnecks take their undefeated record north to take on the Renegades. This is the game of the week to be certain and could be one of the most entertaining with the total set around 50 points. No one has been able to slow down Houston’s P.J. Walker or their offense yet, but the Renegades have a solid enough defense that they may be able to stymie them just enough. They also have enough offense to keep pace, but there is one huge key to this game, and it’s something that is always a key for an NFL game as well. Turnovers. Renegades QB Landry Jones has looked good throwing the ball all over the field with the exception of the fact he has not taken good care of the ball with four interceptions in the last two weeks. This game is tough to handicap because it’s going to probably come down to whether or not Jones can take care of the ball. Even with the high point total we’d lean towards the over in this game as it very well could be the highest scoring game of the league thus far.
DC Defenders vs. Tampa Bay Vipers
The Tampa Bay Vipers looked good in their season home opener and they’ll square up against a DC Defender group that looked surprisingly abysmal last week. Cardale Jones was benched after tossing four interceptions and the DC defense was scorched giving up 39 points. Tampa Bay seems on the brink of getting things figured out but they have their own quarterback drama as the home crowd wants to see USF star Quinton Flowers and his athletic approach installed into the starting lineup. We’ll know who this DC team is after this game. A good performance and we can look at last week as an unfortunate blip on the radar, another rough outing and we’ll have to remove them from the discussion of contenders. We’re leaning toward DC getting back on track and the over hitting, although there is no chance we’re betting on this one.
With four games on the slate there are several betting possibilities for each XFL weekend. We’re hoping that we can get to a point where we feel comfortable and confident releasing multiple wagers and hopefully building a little bit of profit. As it stands today, we’re just simply not there, and quite frankly skeptical of anyone who truly believes that they are. As we mentioned we do have one play that we really like this week and it’s the St. Louis Battlehawks laying the big number of -12. Again, this team has a legitimate homefield advantage and is very solid in all phases. Seattle will simply be over-matched and their offense will not be able to do much against the attacking STL defense. We’ll peg the final score of this game as 29-12.
BetCrushers Take:
St. Louis Battlehawks -12
