Friday’s action started with a dog bet that was blown away by the Wrigley gusts, but finished strong with a solid Mariners road win. In between, Wainwright fell behind quickly to the Mets, the Yankees got to the Royals’ pen, and the Pirates jumped out with 4 in the 1st after a rain delay. A 3-2 day ups the bankroll by 1.05 units and keeps a decent week rolling.
In years past I have quickly abandoned handicapping games at Wrigley, primarily because of the uncertainty of the winds in the morning when I do my work. So after a couple lost wagers at Wrigley this year, I return to that approach. Sometimes it takes getting thumped on the head a couple of times to remember what you already knew. This sort of rule shouldn’t apply to everyone, but it does to me (it’s just a matter of following it).
Today’s slate is a full one, featuring a pair of doubleheaders. I tend to avoid them because of greater lineup uncertainty and the general disruption to the players’ schedules. In a way, handicapping is an attempt to narrow uncertainty or at least understand the percentages so I try to eliminate situations that have typically been tougher for me to do so.
That being said, I’ve found a handful of plays that should reward the risk taken on them…
Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland A’s
Matt Shoemaker leads Toronto’s attempt to stay hot during their road trip. They’re 4-1 on this trip that included a 3-1 series win in Minnesota. Shoemaker has the ability to go 6+ this afternoon against an Oakland club that is heading the opposite direction. He’s pitched well this season, although he has given up home runs in his last 2 games. Perhaps this will be less of an issue in Oakland’s large park but Khris Davis may have something different to say about that.
Mike Fiers gets the start for the A’s and both are looking for a stop to their backward slides. Fiers got knocked around in his last 2 starts and has struggled with giving up too many hard-hit fly balls. This issue is downplayed somewhat in the Coliseum but the power alleys are large and Toronto’s small ball approach may not be the best to exploit it. Regardless, I’ll back the dog behind the right arm of Matt Shoemaker.
WAGER: Blue Jays +126
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
The Sox squeezed out a rare win last night with 2 runs in the 8th. Rick Porcello is the man that Boston is calling on to make it 2 in a row. Unfortunately, Porcello has been giving up a lot of hits and Tampa is a club that has hit the ball well this year. They’re getting a fair amount on base and pushing them across the plate. Anything can happen, but this guy has been abysmal this season and it’s hard to project anything to the contrary tonight. I must discount his woes to a degree though the forecast is still brutal for Porcello.
Charlie Morton, on the other hand, has been limiting his opponents’ opportunities to get a big inning going. While he has been rock solid this season, he hasn’t gone past the 5th inning in his last 2 starts. Fortunately he has an above-average pen behind him in case he can’t go 6. The Rays have lost their last 2, but are still trending positively at 7-3 in their last 10. All 7 wins in this streak have covered the run line and that’s where I have to go to back the Rays.
WAGER: Rays RL +135
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Philly has run right into a blazing hot Colorado team when they came to town Thursday. The Rockies have won 5 in a row including their last 2 against the Phillies. Aaron Nola came into the season with high expectations but has fallen short so far. He’s given up 15 runs and a lot of hits in his last 3 outings. The advanced metrics support the notion that he’s not unlucky or the victim of circumstance. Nola just isn’t pitching well yet.
Antonio Senzatela doesn’t have a large body of work this season, so I can only expect an average start lasting about 5 innings. This is a play on Colorado’s surging offense and against a young ace that is scuffling right now. During their 5-game win streak, the Rockies have held their opponents to 3 runs or less in each game. Anything can happen in the Mile High City but I must take the money on the home team that is playing some good ball lately.
WAGER: Rockies +106
Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
I am a strong buyer on Luis Castillo in general, and definitely will be in this spot tonight. Expectations must be tempered in my handicapping and even so I think he will crank out another stellar outing against the Padres. He squares off against Eric Lauer who has been decent for San Diego. Although he gives up hits regularly, we don’t know if the Reds are poised to take advantage and capitalize by giving Castillo a several-run lead. The Padres are on a 5-game losing streak in which they’ve only scored 2 runs or less in 4 of those games. Look for Castillo to dominate and the Reds to push a few across the plate. The run line is the only way for me to get involved here, and the risk-reward profile fits.
