My BetCrushers boys were giving me flack for hitting the links before cranking out an article first thing this morning. To my credit, I was up and handicapping before the morning scramble. I was fresh off a refreshing Thursday evening in which I had nothing booked, especially after the Braves game. Oof.
This afternoon edition of my MLB handicapping articles is short and sweet because it’s time to hit the highway. One game popped out to me this morning as having a decent differential and a good line, so that’s what I’m on…
NY Yankees @ Chicago White Sox
Pass the Torch: White Sox (Giolito) +100
What’s in a name? Yankees? Sabathia? How does Lucas Giolito sound too you? This kid has been on point since early May and has led his team to victory in his last 8 starts. His worst outing since May 2nd saw him give up 3 runs vs the Royals…in 8 innings of work.
Giolito can’t walk on water though. His ground ball rate is not great (36.0%) and his strand rate (76.8%) and BABIP (.251) aren’t spectacular. When you consider that he has an extremely low 5.7% HR/fly ball rate and limits opponents to 30.0% hard contact, all that gets put into perspective. His 89 K/22 BB ratio is even more impressive looking at his last 4 starts, where that ratio is 39 K/4 BB.
His counterpart, CC Sabathia, has a sub-par 37.5% ground ball rate that is amplified by a 20.0% HR/fly ball rate. A 22.7% soft contact rate is good, but 44.8% hard contact is below average. Also consider that he may be wearing down; Sabathia has given up 11 earned runs, 20 hits, and 5 home runs over 16 innings in his last 3 starts.
The Yankees have the upper hand on offense, especially since the White Sox will not have Yoan Moncada tonight. Relatively speaking, the Yankees are less successful at the plate against lefties so that could be a wash. Neither bullpen is in top form right now, so a long start by Giolito and only 5 innings from Sabathia would give an edge to Chicago.
The White Sox have been taking care of business lately. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Giolito is shining and Sabathia may be waning. Chicago isn’t as sexy of a team but Giolito has earned my backing at home for even money.
