Tonight’s action ushers out a tumultuous month of April with a full slate of games. I took one shot on Monday; a road dog play on the Oakland A’s. The A’s knocked Rodriguez around well in the 2nd, but Boston took advantage of a muffed inning-ending double play in the 3rd to dink their way to 6 runs. That was all the Sox needed to pull off a much-needed win to stay relevant in the early season.
There are some good pitchers taking the mound tonight and those games always pique my interest if the price is right. No need to beat around the bush, I’ve got 5 wagers in for Tuesday so let’s dive in…
Cincinnati Reds @ NY Mets
I’m sounding like a broken record player this season: Luis Castillo is the real deal. He faces a tough road test against the Mets this evening, but squares off against a less-formidable Jason Vargas. Castillo has pitched very well in 2019, though he did not quite bring his A-game for his last start against Atlanta. He gave up 0 runs on 8 hits but left the bases loaded with no outs in the 7th. Fortunately, the Reds have a sneaky good bullpen that wiggled out of it unscathed. I am not blind to the metrics and have made downticks to Castillo’s profile based on a 3.32 xFIP that does not fully support a 1.23 ERA. Regardless, his stock is high and there’s nothing wrong with buying high on a guy who has the stuff to back it up.
Jason Vargas has been a stop-gap starter for the Mets this season on 3 occasions. He only gave up 1 run in each of his last 2 outings, though there is a big gap between the 2.11 ERA and 5.56 xFIP for those 8.2 innings of work. An important dynamic is in play between Vargas and the Reds hitters: the Reds hitters are inconsistent but have shown to put up hits and runs in clusters, while Vargas continues to teeter on the edge of giving up big innings. I’m going to back a good effort from Castillo and the potential for the Reds to do damage against a shaky starter and a susceptible Mets bullpen. Starting pitcher duration has a lot to do with this game.
Back the Ace: Reds RL +135
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
Don’t look now, but the NL Central-leading Cardinals are putting things together and running red hot. They’ve won 8 of their last 10 and threaten the Nationals tonight with veteran Adam Wainwright. Waino’s primary hiccup this season appears to be giving up inopportune walks but has pitched well otherwise. You can pretty much count on him to give a solid 6 innings of work then turn it over to a solid bullpen. St. Louis’s bats have been just as productive as the Nationals’, but with a better supporting back-end to close out games.
Speaking of giving up walks, fellow veteran Anibal Sanchez opposes Wainwright for a Nationals club that has dropped 4 of their last 5. With Zimmerman out and Rendon shown as questionable (as of early this morning), they lose some of their stability in the lineup. Their bullpen is one of the weakest in the MLB, doing a fine job of putting guys on and letting them cross the plate. Wainwright is not a lock-down guy by any means, but so many factors give the nod to the Redbirds.
Great Team, Good Price: Cardinals -108
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
Blake Snell stumbled in his first start back from a short stint on the IR last week. That outing is a rematch of tonight’s face-off between him and Jakob Junis of the Royals. The 10-2 Royals beatdown has to be on the Rays’ minds, who have won 5 of 6 and the first 3 games of this road trip. Snell’s season is proof that there is no sure thing, even with a reigning Cy Young winner on the mound. But you have to play the percentages and expect a very good outing and enough output from a Rays lineup that has supported its pitchers relatively well so far this season.
Junis and the Royals look to repeat their last performance against the Rays, which was a lonely bright spot in this current stretch. They’ve won only 2 of their last 10 and face a tough task tonight. I give a slight edge to the Rays offense and a comfortable upper hand for their pen. But this one truly comes down to whether Blake Snell is dominant or still has some rust to knock off. I’m on the former and am willing to lay a price on a good win by the Rays.
Back to Form: Rays RL -115
NY Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
The Yankees are in the middle of a west coast swing where they are scorching hot at 6-1. Arizona slipped up in their last 2 games against the Cubs, including a 15-inning letdown on Sunday. Two factors lead me to supporting the D-backs despite how hot the Yankees are right now. First, C.C. showed a crack in the armor and at some point should come around to his true form, given his 2.40 ERA and 4.74 xFIP. Greinke is getting stronger as the season progresses by limiting hits and home runs. If both of these hold true, an Arizona win is probably given the similarities with their offensive and bullpen production. Give me the more reliable pitcher in this one and I’ll roll the dice on a multi-run Arizona win.
Roll the Dice: Diamondbacks RL +150
Cleveland Indians @ Miami Marlins
Quick thoughts on this game: Alcantara has been a tough pitcher to handicap. He’s got electric stuff but hasn’t refined his game to be a good pitcher yet. Trevor Bauer is a guy that can take over a game and shorten it for his bullpen. He’s only had 2 outings this season where he’s given up 2 or more runs. If he keeps from walking batters, this game comes down to whether the Indians can scrounge up a few runs to make the difference.
