After a rare week off, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to action on Labor Day weekend. Our early handicapping of the NASCAR Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway will give you the insights to tackle Sunday night’s race. We took advantage of the extra week to highlight the track and isolate who to fade and follow this weekend. With the background work already done, we can jump right into where our money is at currently and where else we would like it to be this weekend.
Is Denny Still the Man with the Plan?
Though NASCAR.com gives the #1 spot in its Power Rankings to Kyle Busch, we’ll argue that Denny Hamlin (who is #2 on the list) should get the top spot. Hamlin has been lights out since Kentucky and was a spotlight guy in our race preview:
Denny is fresh off of a strong Bristol victory and is in the midst of a huge run of six Top-5 finishes in a row on the Cup circuit. During this run, he has two wins and a pair of runner up’s. Hamlin is another guy who excels at Darlington, having a couple wins (2010, 2017) and three 2nd place finishes in his career. He finished outside of the Top 10 only twice in 13 races here. Our concern is there will be little to no value on Hamlin given these undeniable factors.
You can find Hamlin at +650 or +700 to win the Southern 500. Our concern about “little to no value” on the #11 Toyota appears to have been overly negative. A bad set of practices and qualifying could prove this to be premature, but our early money is on Denny to win at Darlington at +700.
Harvick Always Lurking
Kevin Harvick was another spotlight guy for us before the odds were posted. Although it’s been five years since he won at Darlington, Harvick has proven to be a worthy contender here:
Harvick has been a perennial Top-10 finisher at Darlington since 2013 and has actually been in the Top 5 for five of the last six runnings. In fact, he had the pole in three of the last five races (2014, 2016, 2017). The Lady in Black is one of Harvick’s best tracks since moving to Stewart-Haas. We’re interested to see if there will be any value on the #4 next week.
Don’t forget that #4 has taken a pair of checkered flags in the last five races this season. Issues with his clutch took him out of the Bristol night race, but we won’t hold that against him. Harvick is another driver who has that coveted combination of good form and a proficiency at this week’s track. We see a gap in what the books are offering on him to win the race, ranging from +500 to +650. Our second early to-win ticket is on Kevin Harvick at +650.
Early Week Matchups
It’s a rare week for us to have tickets on drivers to win the race outright. Matchups are our bread-and-butter, but the payouts on Harvick and Hamlin are too good to pass up. Much to our disappointment, the drivers on our fade list in last week’s Darlington preview article are nowhere to be found in the matchup wagers as of Wednesday morning. Alex Bowman and Clint Bowyer are absent, while the usual suspects are jumbled together in the lengthy list of head-to-head plays. We’re hopeful that Bowman and Bowyer will get thrown in the mix as more books post their matchups this weekend. In the meantime, it’s wait-and-see mode until practices and qualifying are wrapped up.
Chasing a Payout
Chase Elliott currently sits on several plus-money matchup situations. Unfortunately, two of them are against our to-win drivers, Hamlin and Harvick. You could argue that playing Elliott ahead of these guys are viable hedges for those tickets, but we feel too strongly about their performances at Darlington and will likely pass on these plays.
Elliott has progressed nicely at Darlington in his young Cup Series career. He piloted the #9 Chevy to a respectable 5th place finish last year, leading all Hendrick Motorsports cars that night. Elliott preceded the 2018 Southern 500 with a win at Watkins Glen, a 9th place finish at Michigan, and a 3rd at Bristol. Fast forward to 2019 and he’s coming in to Darlington off of a win at The Glen, a 9th at Michigan, and then survived Bristol with a 5th place finish. Coincidence? Or are we looking at a scenario where Chase has found a groove at these late-summer tracks?
If he has in fact found a groove in this sequence of tracks, how do we profit from it? Plus-money payouts are available against Kyle Larson and the defending Southern 500 champ, Brad Keselowski. Chase’s odds of +140 and +125 against those guys, respectively, are very tempting. Kyle and Brad are formidable foes. which is the obvious reason for the good payouts. If Chase looks good in practice on Friday, our betting card will likely include these plays.
