Saturday’s Road Dog Report landed on that perfect confluence of being picky and fortunate. Rhode Island needed to overtime to sneak inside the hook after two stressful out-of-bounds reviews. LaSalle choked away a 14-point halftime lead only to regain it in the waning minutes. I’ll take it though, especially after having diverted much of my handicapping focus to the upcoming MLB season. If you haven’t checked out our NL West divisional preview and win total breakdown, do it! Without further adieu, it’s time for some Tuesday night MACtion in the Road Dog Report for 2/25/2020.
(613) Toledo +2 @ Central Michigan
It’s a battle of mediocrity as the 13-14 Toledo Rockets face the 13-13 Central Michigan Chippewas. These teams are in the 3rd & 4th positions of the MAC West; CMU sits at 6-7 and Toledo at 5-9. Neither squad’s prospects look good for the postseason at this point. The Chips have lost five in a row while the Rockets have dropped six of their last eight. However, Toledo has won two out of three including Saturday’s 68-59 win at Western Michigan.
These teams squared off in Toledo on January 14th, with Central Michigan getting the 74-67 win as a 9-point dog. CMU was more efficient shooting the ball, got to the line ten more times than Toledo, and out-rebounded them. The Chippewas were led offensively by guard Dallas Morgan with 22 points, who had strong backup from 6’8″ forward David DiLeo and guard Devontae Lane. Toledo guard Marreon Jackson had 17, 6’11” center Luke Knapke knocked down 14, and freshman guard Keshaun Saunders had 18 from the bench, who has been starting since January 28th. The Jackson-Knapke combo has been potent for the Rockets all season.
CMU’s win at Toledo came in the middle of a solid 6-2 run to begin MAC play. They’ve since cooled off with five straight losses but should have some confidence on their home court against a foe they took care of six weeks ago. Toledo’s recent wins came against lesser competition in Western Michigan and Miami. A rematch with the Chippewas is a stiffer test, although the Rockets have fared better on the road than at home. In addition to the WMU win, Toledo lost a 2-point game at Bowling Green a couple weeks earlier. That’s the same BGSU team that CMU had just thumped at home 92-82 four days earlier.
Flipping the Script
Everything looks to be lining up for the Chippewas, right? Their roster is stacked with upperclassmen who have performed as you would expect from an experienced unit. Central Michigan makes their free throws, doesn’t turn it over much, generates plenty of turnovers, and does not commit a ton of fouls. Longtime coach Keno Davis keeps runs a disciplined style of ball that can make the difference between winning and losing. However, their last five games have been uncharacteristically underwhelming. Central failed to score more than 70 points in four of those losses and gave up 73+ in all but one.
Toledo has tightened up their play lately, making them more competitive than during their own five-game losing streak. The Rockets also have upperclassmen leadership in their starting five, except that freshman guard Keshaun Saunders showed Coach Tod Kowalczyk enough to get him into the lineup. They too have done a good job of drawing fouls and making their shots. Toledo’s biggest problem is not generating a lot of turnovers, which puts a greater emphasis on them being more efficient when they have the ball. It’s not a great formula against CMU’s pesky defense considering they can be turnover-prone at times.
However, the Rockets move the ball well and have shown signs of being more efficient recently. The bottom line for them to stay competitive tonight is simply to take care of the ball. Reduce turnovers and their prospects for a sneaky road win drastically improve. My raw power ratings make Toledo about a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral court. If you’re backing the Rockets like I am, don’t freak out if they face a 6-point halftime deficit. They’ve outscored their opponents in the second half of five games in a row, though I’d much rather see them coming out of the locker room with a lead.
On the Money
Central Michigan has been profitable for their backers in conference play this season. Their 8-5 ATS record is far and away superior to Toledo’s 3-10-1 mark. The Chips are 3-4 ATS at home and have not laid points since their February 11th matchup with Eastern Michigan. They lost to EMU 70-73 as 6.5-point favorites, then dropped the next three as dogs but got the cover Saturday at Northern Illinois. Prior to that, CMU was able to cover against BGSU and Western Michigan as short home favorites.
The question is whether the Chippewas are in the right mode to be a favorite. Oddsmakers certainly could not make them a home dog against a lackluster Rockets team, especially after winning by seven last month in Toledo. Tonight’s Road Dog has gone a nondescript 3-3-1 ATS in MAC road games this season. However, they have been quite productive lately at 3-1-1 on the road. In fact, they’ve been a dog only once since the 1/18 game at Akron after a solid start to conference play. Each team is operating on a different axis than they have been recently, so does this mean value for the dog? Toledo is an ugly Road Dog (similar to LaSalle on Saturday) but I’ll hold my nose, take the +2, and probably have to sweat a second-half comeback to cash the ticket. What more could I ask for?!?
Everything at Your Fingertips
Spring Training action is heating up, and no, we don’t handicap exhibition baseball games. In the meantime, be sure to follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to catch our latest releases. Our NL West preview is up and the AL Central outlook is scheduled to drop on Thursday. NASCAR heads to Fontana this weekend and we’ll be sure to handicap it with a couple of early bets for the Auto Club 400. BTW, give our friend @NASCARStyleOdds a follow for more racing handicapping (pssst, the guy is 5-1 on the track his season).
