It’s been a minute since the last Road Dog Report, and Tuesday MACtion is a great reason to get back on the ball! I find myself getting pickier with college hoops plays as the season progresses, which is fine considering it is time to ramp into the MLB season. There’s not much cookin’ in the mid-major conferences but one game is enough to feature in the Road Dog Report for 2/18/2020.
(611) Ball State +4.5 @ Buffalo
The 14-11 Ball State Cardinals visit the 16-9 Buffalo Bulls in a battle of 7-5 Mid American Conference teams. Ball State has dropped two of their last three, while Buffalo comes home after a dominating road win at Toledo. The Bulls look to break through their 3-3 home record in the MAC against a Cardinals team who is 2-4 in road conference games. These teams have achieved a modest level of success this season in different fashion. Buffalo finds themselves in higher-scoring affairs more frequently than Ball State, although both squads have an average scoring differential of a bucket greater than their MAC opponents.
The last two Road Dog Reports (2/12 Southern Illinois & 2/13 Southern Utah) featured teams that had dominated their opponents at home a month prior. I contended that home court advantage should make the matchups much tighter, but the road teams were the better competitors. Each of them laid eggs with shooting percentages at or around 30% and fell well short of the number. And here I am expecting a different fate with the Cardinals?
Ball State has shot the most threes in the MAC but has only connected on 31.7% of them. Ball State guard Ishmael El-Amin is fairly representative of his team’s offense; he’s 41.5% from the beyond the arc on the season but has plenty of 1-for-6 and 2-for-9 nights. As I noted in the January 14th Ohio/Buffalo handicap, the Bulls have a strong corps of guards (6’5″ Jeenathan Williams is technically listed as a forward) to lead them on offense. 6’7″ Josh Mballa is their main inside threat who works the boards effectively. Buffalo is a very good rebounding team that plays with pace and thrives with the high-percentage shot.
Another Revenge Game?
These MAC foes met on January 7th in Muncie, resulting in a 88-68 Cardinals victory. The 20-point win was very uncharacteristic of both teams, given their general tendencies. Ball State capitalized on nine steals and red-hot perimeter shooting. They hit 10 of 27 from beyond the arc as opposed to Buffalo’s 3 of 18. A repeat performance in either sense is highly unlikely tonight, although the Cardinals’s streaky three-point shooting leaves quite a bit up to chance for us handicappers.
El-Amin had an off-night with 11 points on 20% perimeter shooting. However, 6’8″ forward Tahjai Teague went off with 25 points against the Bulls. Teague hasn’t had a single-digit scoring night since he faced Buffalo on the 7th. In fact, he’s had five double-doubles in the meantime. He is joined in the front court by 6’7″ Kyle Mallers who had 11 points in the January 7th game and seems to be a barometer of the Cardinals’ fate. Perhaps it is more coincidence than anything, but he’s scored 10 or more points in Ball State’s seven conference wins and less than 10 points in their five losses.
Tonight’s battle of the forwards should be an interesting one to watch. Mballa v. Teague and Williams v. Mallers could prove to be the difference. Neither team is great from the charity stripe and they are both in the bottom half of the league when it comes to free throw attempts. My handicap essentially boils down to which team can establish their desired pace of play. Buffalo thrives when running the court as opposed to Ball State, who must be efficient since second chances are often limited for them.
On the Money
Both teams have been fairly “meh” for bettors in their twelve conference games. Against the spread, Ball State is an even 6-6 and 2-4 on the road while Buffalo is 5-7 and 1-5 at home. Nothing much to read into this, so let’s dig deeper. The Bulls have been favorites in all six home games, only covering as 10-point favorites in a blowout of Western Michigan. They failed to cover their last three home contests against Central Michigan (-5.5), BGSU (-4.5), & Kent State (-3.5). I have their last two opponents, CMU and BGSU, rated about five and three points worse than the Cardinals.
What is the silver lining on Ball State’s 2-4 road ATS record? They’ve covered two of their last three as Road Dogs, failing to cover at BGSU as 2-point dogs. Their most recent contest on the road came against Kent State, who they beat 62-54 as 4-point dogs. Ball State has held their opponents to 66 points or less in all seven of their conference wins – making the key to a Ball State cover holding the Bulls to 70 points or less by playing solid defense and controlling the pace. That’s easier said than done, but my money is on the Cardinals getting +4.5.
