PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
6-2

SEASON RESULTS:
6-2

Week 1 Recap:

We mentioned that 8 plays were more than we generally throw out in a given week, but we felt strongly about some matchups and wanted to take our chances. That worked out well as we finished the week with a 6-2 mark giving us a nice +4 for the opening weekend. Perhaps even more encouraging is the fact that we were clearly on the correct side with our 2 losses as Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garrapolo both squeaked by their unders we had. For Cousins it was mostly garbage time, while Garrapolo benefited from a full-field screen pass early in their game. Overall, our research and the matchups graded out great and we’re excited for a hopeful repeat in week two.

Week 2 Preview:

Week two provides some interesting prop opportunities based on some potential game scripts. As a result, there are several opportunities where it almost seems like finding which particularly player on a team is going to succeed is what needs to be determined. A perfect example is in the Cowboys and Falcons contest, where offenses seem poised for an explosion, making player prop overs very enticing. The challenge is, who benefits from the receptions, yards and touchdowns? There are so many options. We whittled down our plays with two player overs coming in one contest, a rarity for the BetCrushers. We’ve book-ended our selections for this week with two unders, while betting the more fun overs on the rest. Since we did well extending to 8 bets in week one, we figured we’ll target that number again this week.

Our Picks:

Will Fuller V – Under 62.5 Yards
Receiving (-110)

We know what you’re thinking… Will Fuller has the ability to go over a total of 62.5 yards on one reception with his deep speed or his quarterbacks escapability and getting outside of the pocket. Inherently, there is risk in any wager, which is why it’s referred to as gambling. Assuming Fuller doesn’t get over the top, we’re thinking he will struggle again as he faces a tough Ravens defense that really slowed down OBJ and Jarvis Landry in their opener. With two of the most talented corners in the league, Fuller is going to have his hands full getting open. If week one was any indication of how the Texans offense may be without DeAndre Hopkins, we saw that Fuller may suffer the most as teams are able to really key on him.

Austin Ekeler – Over 4 Receptions (-110)

Don’t look now, but the Kansas City Chiefs have gotten their defense playing pretty well. That’s bad news for the entire league, and this week the Los Angeles Chargers, as they play their first game in their new palace. Tyrod Taylor gets the nod again after a tight win against the Bengals and he’ll have his hands full trying to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Austin Ekeler had a productive, if unspectacular game against Cincinnati. He didn’t get a ton of reps in the running game, which may be the case again on Sunday. Tyrod Taylor has always been considered one of the checkdown quarterbacks of the league as he doesn’t really attempt a lot of tough throws down the field. There will likely be at least 2-3 scripted passing plays to Ekeler in the screen game. With Taylor under pressure and the Chargers very possibly trying to come from behind, he should grab a few checkdowns as well. A push is certainly possible with the number set at 4, but we’ll take that with an opportunity to get to 5 or more catches.

Devin Singletary – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

The first of our two plays for the Buffalo Bills begins with Devin Singletary and the running game. If you caught our weekly wagers, we love the over total in this game and think that the offenses will make some plays. In their season opener, Singletary was pretty quiet as offensive coordinator Brian Daboll didn’t want to test a stout Jets front, and opted instead to attack through the air. As a result, this prop total has some serious value as we’re anticipating a big bounce-back game for Singletary. The Patriots were successful running the football and a similar gameplan will be in the works for the Bills. Rookie Zack Moss will take some carries away from Singletary, but just needing 52 yards, we’re taking the young running back to hit the over.

Stefon Diggs – Over 4 Receptions (-110)

There were a lot of people who thought that Stefon Diggs may not be a great fit with Josh Allen and the Bills. It’s still in the honeymoon phase, however early on there has been some nice chemistry and praise between the two. The Bills will spread out their receptions between 5 or 6 players, with Diggs being the headliner. With his total set at just 4 receptions, Diggs should eclipse that on a regular basis, and this matchup should be no exception. The Dolphins upgraded both their pass rush and their corners, so Byron Jones and Xavien Howard will be keeping close tabs on Diggs, but with John Brown and Cole Beasley on the field, Diggs should have one on one matchups, and he can win those against any corner in the league.

Zach Ertz – Over 46.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Things are not going so well to start the season in Philadelphia as the team not only blew a week one lead against the divisional rival Redskins, but they’ve also battled injuries. Our player prop here has had his own hiccup as there is an apparent rift between he and management regarding his future with the team. Seems like all the reason in the world to fade him, right? We’re going the opposite direction and taking the over with Zach Ertz at a very manageable 46.5 receiving yards, and here’s why: The Eagles welcome back critical pieces in right tackle Lane Johnson and starting running back Miles Sanders. With Johnson anchoring the right side, protection should be better and Ertz will be able to be more involved in the route trees and less as a blocker. Sanders gives the team a real threat running the football and as a receiver which frees Ertz up a bit. Ertz is normally good for at least 50 yards per game on an average day, and with a potential pass rush of Aaron Donald and the Rams targeting Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, Ertz could catch quite a few of the 10-15 yard passes in this game.

Todd Gurley – Over 56.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

In the game most likely to light up the scoreboard this week the Cowboys will face off with the Falcons as each team looks for a needed win. There are probably half a dozen players you could look at the over on in this game, so if you don’t like Gurley, peak both Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan or at Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott. We’re going with Gurley though on the ground and an over total of 56.5 yards. In the preseason the Cowboys had to release DT Gerald McCoy who suffered a season-ending injury. In week one they lost the toughness of their defense as Leighton Vander-Esch re-injured his collarbone allowing the Rams to both run and throw the ball effectively. The Falcons had 3 wide receivers go over 100 yards in week one so Gurley won’t have to worry about stacked boxes and should have some room to run. For a guy that routinely would rush for near 100 yards, in this matchup that could be a track meet, he should have one of his best rushing games of the season.

Aaron Jones – Over 68.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Much like in the the Falcons/Cowboys game, there are 3 packers that have legitimate player prop overs. You can probably guess that Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are two of those, and if you weren’t sure, running back Aaron Jones is the third. Jones worked hard to cut his body fat to ridiculous levels in the offseason and is playing for a new contract that he hopes will keep him in Green Bay. Throughout his short career Jones has really feasted against the Lions and with a thin secondary keeping an eye on Adams at WR, Jones could see a hefty workload on Sunday. In week one there was a lack of rushing production throughout the league and that should re-calibrate a bit in week two. This has all the makings of a 100 yard day for Jones.

Tom Brady – Under 279.5 Yards Passing (-110)

We were about as used to seeing Tom Brady struggle as he was dealing with criticism regarding his play from the media after the Bucs loss to the Saints. It’s far too early to press the panic button in our opinion. After all, Brady was working in a new offense, with new weapons, and facing a tough defense without a lot of repetition. Fortunately for TB12, he’ll get a crack at one of the weaker defenses in the league when they square off with the Panthers this weekend. Brady should play better overall as he looks to avoid his fourth straight game dating back to last year with a pick-six. The Bucs could roll in this game if they can get up early and control Christian McCaffrey. Even if Brady plays well, which we anticipate he will, we’re still rolling with under his total of 279.5 yards. At this stage in his career, he’s simply not a 300 yard passer. Chris Godwin may be limited or out which also won’t help, as the completions are likely to be short and fast passes. The Panthers have struggled to slow down the run so we could see a lot of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette as well, especially if the team is up. Look for a solid stat line from Brady, maybe a 20-25, 250 yards scenario and take his yardage under.