PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-3

SEASON RESULTS:
38-34

Week 9 Recap:

The week started out well on Thursday night with a Dallas Goedert prop that cruised to a cover. After the first four prop bets were finished Sunday, we were ready to put a fist through a wall, and then we squeezed out a narrow cover and remembered that it’s all about balance. Our double-play with both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the Packers game was a complete disaster as Aaron Jones left in the 2nd quarter with an injury. In theory, it seemed like that would have resulted in a split as Dillon only needed 39 rushing yards. Somehow, he didn’t get there, as the Packers offense couldn’t score against the soft Lions defense. Another frustrating loss was Rhamondre Stevenson, who somehow only got 14 carries despite Damien Harris being out of the game, and the Patriots leading for the entire game. As a result he only finished with 60 rushing yards and needing 68, didn’t get it done. As for the winners, we rode the Travis Etienne, Jr. train again, and despite a huge early deficit to the Raiders, the young back cracked 100 yards again and covered. We mentioned inching out a win, and that’s literally what happened with Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz. He finished with 40 yards receiving, beating the hook of 39.5 and getting us a much needed win to square things up at 3-3 on the week.

Week 10 Preview:

When you reach the middle of the NFL season injuries become a major factor in results of players and games. As we were conducting our research, the uncertainty, particularly at the quarterback position for multiple teams really impacts who can really be looked at for player props. The flip side of the injury game is it pushes some players into opportunities they might not other have. We’ve found one receiver in particular who should find a lot of playing time on Sunday we’re locked in on. Beyond that, we’ve got some pretty big names chosen, and only one player that we’re fading, based on his matchup. Five total plays in what looks like a tricky weekend of player props.

Our Picks:

Saquon Barkley – Over 93.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

Don’t look now but the New York Giants are pretty solid favorites to add yet another win to their record when they welcome the Houston Texans to the Meadowlands. This player prop is one of the simplest explanations you’re ever going to see from the BetCrushers. The Texans are one of the worst teams at stopping the run that we’ve seen in the past handful of years. On the other side, Saquon Barkley is averaging 97 yards rushing per game this season and looks better than ever running the ball. Barkley will see a healthy workload, and there really isn’t much outside of an injury that should keep him from topping 100 yards rushing in this game. See how simple that was?

Juju Smith-Schuster – Over 63.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

The Juju Smith-Schuster era in Kansas City started out in what would best be described as average fashion. It understandably takes time to develop rapport between a receiver and a quarterback, even when that quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. Things seem to be falling into place nicely between the two as Smith-Schuster has gone for 113, 124 and 88 yards in his last three games, respectively. Sunday the Chiefs will play host to a Jacksonville Jaguar team that has had some trouble pressuring quarterbacks and covering receivers this season. KC will also be minus Mecole Hardman, who had been coming on strong in his own right in recent weeks. All of that combined should lead to a healthy amount of targets for Smith-Schuster, and at just 63.5 yards receiving, we’re definitely playing his over.

Mack Hollins – Over 40.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Things have been pretty up and down for Raiders receiver Mack Hollins during the 2022 season. That’s as much of an indictment on the organization as a whole and quarterback Derek Carr as it is on Hollins. After a disappointing loss a week ago in Jacksonville, the Raiders placed starting receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller on injured reserve. That makes Hollins the clear second target behind Davante Adams in the Raiders offense. The Colts have gotten solid play out of veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore, and he’s likely to see a lot of Adams, with potential help at safety in an effort to slow down the talented receiver. That should push Derek Carr to look in the direction of Hollins several times throughout the game. If the Colts are able to keep Josh Jacobs contained, which they should be able to do with a pretty stout rush defense, Hollins could cruise past his yardage total in a game of disappointing teams.

Tyreek Hill – Over 93.5 Yards Receiving (-115)

Somewhere along the way a team is going to shut down Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins passing game. Hill is putting up numbers that will threaten single season records, and despite teams playing soft zones, he simply is finding holes and making big plays. The Dolphins have a home matchup against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and it’s possible we’ll see some more fireworks from Hill. The Browns rank near the bottom of the league in giving up explosive plays, as they’ve routinely been out of position in the secondary. They do get starting cornerback Denzel Ward back on Sunday, but he hasn’t played since week five, and wasn’t playing that great before he left the lineup. Really this is just a statistical play, that says that Tyreek Hill is going to have 100 yards receiving more often than he won’t during this season. There’s certainly no guarantee Hill will get it done Sunday, but the odds are enough in our favor that we’ll give it a play.

Austin Ekeler – Under 47.5 Yards Rushing (-115)

The Chargers square off with the 49ers on Sunday Night Football and they’ll be thin again on offense with starting wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both missing the contest. That’s not ideal when playing on the road against a tough and physical San Francisco defense. The only truly proven weapon for the Chargers is running back Austin Ekeler, who figures to be a busy man in their offensive game plan. Ekeler’s best quality is he’s a diverse weapon, who can be even more dangerous catching the football than he is running the football. In fact, Ekeler has not been able to run the ball well at all during the 2022 season. Outside of a monster explosion against the Browns, he’s actually only topped 40 yards rushing twice on the season. It’s hard to imagine he’ll be able to top 40 yards against the top rushing defense in the league, which is what the 49ers currently are. With the absence of the outside receivers, you can bet San Francisco will be keyed in on Ekeler. Additionally, the Chargers offensive line is also pretty banged up, which will make it difficult for them to win inside the trenches. If the 49ers can build up a lead as touchdown favorites, it could eliminate a lot of the running game for Los Angeles as a whole. We’re going with both statistics here, and a potential game script to fade Ekeler on Sunday Night Football.

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