PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
2-5
SEASON RESULTS:
33-23
Week 8 Recap:
Things were going oh so smoothly with our prop betting as we were off to a blazing hot start to the season. And then this weekend happened. A dismal 2-5 record that saw us missing the target pretty much everywhere. Let’s recap the two wins quickly. Taysom Hill continues to get rushing touches each and every week and until Vegas starts radically adjusting those lines, you have to keep playing it. He beat his 10.5 rushing yards in the first quarter, and destroyed that total by the end of the game. We squeezed out a win on the under of Josh Jacob’s rushing yards. It looked shaky as he had 41 yards at the half, but he was only able to add 20 more in the second half as the Raiders were playing from behind. With a total of 65.5, we had to sweat that one out until the very end. Now for the ugly part of prop corner. We doubled-down on the Houston Texans, taking both Dameon Pierce and Nico Collin’s yardage totals to go over in a friendly matchup against the Panthers banged up defense. It was a struggle for both as they seemed to be inching towards them throughout the game, but each fell short for a pair of early losses. We faded Kareem Hunt in a matchup against the Seahawks and he made us pay with some hard running through three quarters. He didn’t go over by much, but he got there which dealt us a loss. The sad part is he didn’t even touch the ball in the fourth quarter. We also failed with Breece Hall, who broke a long screen pass, but couldn’t officially get anything going as far as rushing yards went. And the most frustrating loss of the day was Kendrick Bourne who was 37 yards in towards a 43.5 yard mark, before tearing his ACL in the 2nd quarter, ending that prop bet and his season, unfortunately. Making it through an entire season unscathed is tough to do, and this weekend was a reality check for us. No fear though, we’ll be stepping back in the batter’s box and swinging for the fences again.
Week 9 Preview:
We decided to keep things positive despite our poor showing last week by taking only overs on some players we’ve identified as likely to perform in week nine. We’ve got one quarterback, a pair of running backs, a wide receiver and a tight end all in play. One of the running backs we’re going over with, we attempted to fade last week unsuccessfully. We’re also trying to keep our streak alive with a player prop bet we’ve won on four times so far this season. Five plays to get back on track this week in our Prop Corner. Let’s have some fun and win some money!
Our Picks:
Kareem Hunt – Over 38.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
We were on the wrong side fading Kareem Hunt a week ago, so well give him the opportunity to win us back by backing him in his showdown with the Cardinals. Hunt had arguably his best game of the season running hard against a tough Seahawks run defense and amassing 55 yards despite not receiving a snap in the fourth quarter. He was a little vocal about not loving that game plan, and sometimes the squeaky wheel can get the grease. The Browns are about as healthy as they’ve been this season entering this game, minus of course normal starting running back Nick Chubb. They’re going to be facing a Cardinals team that has one of the worst defenses in the league, and just traded the guy they had starting at QB for the first half of the season. That could add up to a whole lot of running for the Browns and Hunt. Over the last three games Hunt has averaged 11.5 carries, and there’s a strong possibility he will get more than that in this ballgame. Even if he’s around that average, he really only needs to average a little over three yards per carry to cross this threshold. Take two with Kareem Hunt incoming.
Saquon Barkley – Over 77.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
Giants running back Saquon Barkley is averaging just about 3.7 yards per carry this season, and yet you could argue he’s doing some of his best work. Playing behind a patchwork offensive line with little threat of a passing game, teams are loading up to stop him especially on early downs. Sunday he’ll have Daniel Jones back at quarterback and some reinforcements on the offensive line which should make his life at least a little bit easier. He’ll also be facing a Raiders team that has been absolutely gashed by opposing runners the past few weeks and will be missing some contributing linebackers in the middle. Add that up and Barkley could be in store for one of his best statistical performances in a while. You may be questioning whether the return of Daniel Jones would impact the amount of carries Barkley will get, and that’s a valid concern. However, he’s averaged nearly 25 carries the past three weeks, so even if he loses out on a few he should still see around 20 totes in this game. All he would need is an average performance to cross the 77.5 yard mark. Against tougher competition, his last three games were 93, 77, and 128 yards, respectively. The formula for the Giants to beat the Raiders is simple, get the ball to number 26 and get out of the way.
Adam Thielen – Over 6.5 Receptions (-115)
No, it’s not 2019 again, but it definitely is Adam Thielen SZN as the Panthers wideout is on an absolute tear. The veteran receiver has developed some nice chemistry with rookie quarterback Bryce Young, and without a ton of other proven weapons to throw to, he’s a featured guy in Carolina. While his weekly reception and yardage totals have been steadily climbing, they’re still realistically too low for the type of production he’s putting up. Sunday he will take aim at a Colts secondary that is not particularly strong at the cornerback position with a reception total that rests at 6.5 catches. That may sound like a lot, until you realize Thielen has topped this mark in every game this season with the exception of their week one game versus the Falcons. Bryce Young is looking more and more comfortable in the pocket and is constantly looking in Thielen’s direction. Since week one, he’s averaged almost 12 targets per game, and is bringing in a high percentage. With a track record like that, and a favorable matchup at home, it makes sense to take a shot at backing Thielen to continue his strong run on Sunday.
Derek Carr – Over 252.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The season hasn’t necessarily been magical for new Saints quarterback Derek Carr, but he has cranked things up the past three weekends tossing for over 300 yards in all three games. This week he will be matching up against a Bears defense that has actually been pretty good at stopping the run, and pretty darn bad at stopping the pass. Their secondary has been, and remains banged up, and Chicago hasn’t generated consistent pass rush pressure throughout the season. With a toasty Superdome home contest for Carr, that should add up to what could be his fourth consecutive 300 yard game. If the Bears can slow down the Saints running attack, they’ll be forced to put the ball in the air. New Orleans has no shortage of weapons to throw to, and it’s likely they’ll all have opportunities to produce against Chicago. As long as the Saints aren’t in complete halftime blowout mode, Carr should be able to topple this passing mark and continue to improve his play.
Dalton Kincaid – Over 38.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
We’re a perfect 4-0 betting on Dalton Kincaid props this season and we feel pretty good about our chances to extend that to 5-0 and staying perfect. The Bills will take on the Bengals on Sunday Night Football in one of the marquee matchups of the weekend. It’s impossible to predict the game script for certain, but points are expected to be plentiful, and the Bengals offense has been rolling. That should make the Bills pretty aggressive and needing to score often by keeping the ball in the air. After week seven, the Bills coaches vocally stated they wanted to get Dalton Kincaid more involved in the offense, and the timing was perfect as their other tight end Dawson Knox went on IR. With Knox out of the lineup, Kincaid’s snap share skyrocketed, and 8 and 5 passes for 75 and 65 yards respectively. Throw in the fact the Bengals have not been great covering opposing tight ends this season with two new safeties on the back end, and this seems like another spot where Dalton should put up similar numbers to what we’ve witnessed the last two weeks. Give us the over while it’s still in the 30’s.
