PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
3-5

SEASON RESULTS:
66-42-2

Week 14 Recap:

They say all good things must come to an end and in week 14 our props fell into that category as we had a disappointing 3-5 outcome. What tilted our record last weekend was the Bengals and Cowboys game as we had an over for Andy Dalton and an under for Brandon Allen. The Cowboys got out to a fast start with a defensive touchdown and the game script for the second half resulted in very little passing for Dalton, and a lot of throwing for Allen. The latter went over by a measly 2 yards, but when the game script doesn’t go according to plan, it happens. The most perplexing miss of the day was Adam Thielen who was basically shut down, along with teammate Justin Jefferson in a game where the Vikings needed to throw. With the Buccaneers recent struggles stopping opposing wide receivers it was baffling that Thielen didn’t get more targets and receptions. Overall, this last slate seems like one it’s best not to overthink, we’ll just move on to a new card and see if we can recapture the fire we’ve had throughout the season.

Week 15 Preview:

Tying a season high with nine player props for Sunday we’ve got a little something for everyone. The game of the weekend is a possible Super Bowl preview of the Chiefs and Saints, and we have three players targeted in what seems like a much watch game with the return of Drew Brees. As has been the case for most of the season, the sportsbooks seem less “sharp” with their player props than they do their spreads so take that for what it’s worth. Good luck with whatever you play!

Our Picks:

Cam Newton – Over 41.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

With a Josh McDaniels gameplan you never really know for sure what to expect week to week. That has traditionally meant it’s difficult to rely on players for things like fantasy football or prop bets. Sunday’s matchup with the rival Dolphins seems a little different however. The Dolphins have arguably the best secondary in the league, while the Patriots boast arguably the worst group of receivers. With his receivers likely to struggle getting open, Patriots quarterback Cam Newton could be running even more than usual. By default, it seems like his legs may be the only real way this team will be able to move the ball. Take the over.

Jonathan Taylor – Over 71.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

The Indianapolis Colts and head coach Frank Reich subscribe to the running back by committee philosophy which means a three-headed monster of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins. Recently though there has been a bit of a switch as Hines has been primarily the receiving back and Wilkins has seen a decrease in snaps. Jonathan Taylor took the lead last week and had the first monstrous performance of his rookie campaign. Next up is a matchup against the Texans who have been unable to stop anyone running the football all season. We could discuss their losses in the secondary, etc. but why even bother? The bottom line is, if Taylor gets more than a dozen carries, he’ll hit this over and likely have some room to spare.

Allen Robinson II – Over 72.5 Yards Receiving (-110)

Saving

The Chicago Bears have been a pretty woeful offense all season amidst a quarterback controversy and a long losing streak. Since the re-insertion of Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback they have actually been playing pretty well on the offensive side of the ball. Lost in all of this is the fact that Allen Robinson II has been his usual really solid self at wide receiver. In fact, outside of Terry McLaurin, he may be the most underrated receiver in the league. The Bears have a tough divisional game against the Vikings as both teams are clinging to playoff hopes and needing a win. Minnesota has had trouble with their secondary all year and don’t have a lock-down type corner to match up with Robinson. Even though 72.5 is a high number for an offense that doesn’t exactly light it up, Robinson should see a lot of volume in a game we’re anticipating to be high scoring.

DeAndre Hopkins – Over 6.5 Receptions (-110)

All eyes will be on the quarterbacks when the Eagles and Cardinals take the field, but don’t forget about the best wide receiver on the field either. DeAndre Hopkins will lead the Cardinals against an Eagles secondary missing three starters including their best cornerback Darius Slay, Jr. It’s hard to see how the Eagles will be able to control Hopkins as he’s a master at beating zone coverage, or weak man to man. Although he’s been a little streakier over the second half of the season he should have a good game against inferior opponents.

Patrick Mahomes – Over 312.5 Yards Passing (-110)

The game of the weekend pits the Chiefs and Saints doing battle looking for the number one seed for the playoffs. The Saints defense has been playing better than anyone in the league over the last month and their team welcomes back Drew Brees on the offensive side of the ball. The Saints can shut down a lot of teams but they haven’t faced the Chiefs yet, who will provide their biggest challenge to date. Speaking of playing better than anyone over the last month, how about Patrick Mahomes and his near 375 yard average per game in his last five outings? At this point we’re going to keep taking Mahomes overs until he stops hitting them. It’s actually not just that simple, there is that whole matchup thing as well here. The Saints are very difficult to run against so it’s unlikely we’ll see Andy Reid even giving much effort into establishing the run with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell. The Chiefs best shot at moving the ball is going to be with their speedy receivers down the field, so let’s give one of the league’s MVP candidates a shot to hit his over.

Drew Brees – Under 239.5 Yards Passing (-110)

Taking an under against Drew Brees seems wrong on so many levels and that’s exactly what we’re doing. Brees is remarkably returning after missing only four games despite breaking 11 ribs and having other substantial injuries. He returns without the services of his favorite target Michael Thomas, who was placed on IR and will miss the final three games of the regular season. That will hamper his ability to push the ball down the field and will likely result in a lot of short passes. It would seem that unless he can get a big busted play on a short throw to Alvin Kamara or something along those lines the yardage may be tough to come by. Add in the fact that it wouldn’t be shocking for the Saints to be extra cautious with Brees and we could see some packages with Taysom Hill and that only helps the under here.

Alvin Kamara – Over 101.5 Yards Rushing and Receiving (-110)

As we just eluded to, the loss of Michael Thomas is big for the Saints offense, particularly without having the running threat from Taysom Hill. That means that Alvin Kamara is going to be a very busy man in their game with the Chiefs. Kansas City can make some things happen with their defensive line and in their secondary, however their linebackers aren’t great in coverage. Assuming the Saints have 300+ yards, Kamara would need to account for just over a third of them to hit this over. How much production can the team really get from Latavius Murray, Jared Cook and their wide receivers? We’re anticipating 20+ touches for Kamara running and receiving which should vault him over the 100 total yard marker.

J.K. Dobbins – Over 67.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

The Colts aren’t the only team that likes to mix and match their running backs as the Ravens have done that for several years. Last week in their thrilling win against the Browns it was J.K. Dobbins who established himself as the lead dog outpacing Gus Edwards and the others in the backfield. In fact, Mark Ingram II has basically been a forgotten man in this offense after his return from the COVID list. A matchup with the Jaguars means the Ravens will work to pound the rock on the ground and could have a big lead in a game where they are substantial favorites. Dobbins should be in line for another good performance as the Ravens tune their offense up for what they hope is a postseason run.

Kareem Hunt – Under 44.5 Yards Rushing (-110)

Kareem Hunt is more than capable of putting 45 yards rushing up in any given game. In fact, he could make that happen with a couple of broken tackles. Kevin Stefanski has re-shifted back to less of a two-back offense to a bit more of Nick Chubb as the workhorse and Hunt as the receiving back. That means that in a game that should be close against a solid defense that Hunt’s carry opportunities could be limited. We also toyed with taking Hunt’s over receiving total, but opted instead to take his rushing under. We’re expecting 6-10 carries for Hunt so unless he breaks a big one he should stay under on his rushing total.

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