So much to say about the wackiness at Churchill Downs yesterday that we’ll just leave unsaid…
Saturday ended a small undefeated (4-0) run at the hands of the Boston Red Sox. Let’s just say that last night wasn’t the best night to take a shot on the White Sox for the first time all season. The thumping started with 9 runs in the 3rd inning, all coming with 2 outs. The BoSox never looked back and closed out a 20-hit performance with a 15-2 beatdown.
Arizona was the bright spot that made the night profitable. The D-backs jumped on Kyle Freeland for 8 runs and rode Luke Wilson for 7 innings of 1-run ball. That was one hell of a performance against a hot-hitting Rockies club at Coors Field. Oddly enough, I am not on Arizona for the series finale despite betting them in the first 2 games. German Marquez is enough of a wild card to throw me off this game despite Zack Greinke being dead nuts in his last 3 starts. This could be a missed opportunity that I will be keeping an eye on regardless, though something seems fishy about Arizona being a dog here.
I’m looking to finish the week strong after a 1-1 night that yielded a small +0.14 unit profit. My volume of plays was reduced this past week and I’ve only made 12 wagers (8-4, +4.92 units) through Saturday. Weather will be a big issue in New York, Philly, and possibly Pittsburgh today.
NY Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Jason Vargas has been surprisingly good as he’s settled back into a regular role in the New York rotation. Although he’s only good for 5 innings of work, he has given up just 1 run in each of his last 3 starts. What’s interesting about Vargas in those 3 starts is that his ERA was around 2.00 but the xFIP was more in the 5.00 neighborhood. His strikeout rate has been strong, which may account for a good strand rate despite a propensity for walking batters.
It will be especially tough for the Mets to give Vargas good run support against Zach Davies this afternoon. The Mets offense has simmered in the past week and the team has been in a slump. Davies is guy who has produced very well on the mound but doesn’t have the advanced metrics to support it (1.38 ERA vs. 4.93 xFIP). He’s a contact pitcher that gets great support from a solid defense, though he has struggled to get past the 5th inning consistently.
Davies will need to give the Brewers 6 innings to spare an average bullpen that put in a lot of work in an 18-inning battle last night. I’m not sure if he would ordinarily have it in him but Counsell may push the issue due to bullpen fatigue. Vargas is probably not the guy to stretch so the Brewers need to rough him up early and press the Mets to make a difficult decision. All this being said, I like the extra pop that the Brewers lineup has to offset a slightly-weaker bullpen. Yelich made a pinch-hit appearance last night and could be ready to go today. Milwaukee has been holding serve at home, going 4-2 in their last 6 games at Miller Park.
Overpower the Opponent: Brewers RL +150
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
It must be said that both of these teams have been struggling and are throwing a pair of sub-par starters on the mound this afternoon. Clay Buchholz goes for the Blue Jays; a guy who has been serviceable though not very impressive. He’ll eat 5 innings and serve up 3 or 4 runs on a typical start. The short duration is partially mitigated by a very good bullpen that can take over for him, which is what was needed last night to give 5.2 innings of no-run relief using only 3 pitchers.
Drew Smyly is the key cog for today’s wager. He’s back from the 10-day IL and looks to turn his season around starting today. Smyly has given up 13 runs in 15 innings with a 26.7% ground ball rate, which can be trouble at Globe Life Park. His 4.90 xFIP hints that he shouldn’t be as bad as his 7.80 ERA says, though I’m betting that he continues to give up runs at a very bad rate. The Jays’ offense has been in a rut on this road trip so relying upon them to take advantage of Smyly and a poor bullpen seems shaky. I’ll swim upstream in this one and take Toronto with a lot of risk that the offense falls on its face.
