Oof. Yesterday’s faith in Julio Teheran and Merrill Kelly was poorly placed. They were both in good current form as I detailed yesterday. Unfortunately, both of these starters were anything but good. And their offenses did little to bail them out. deGrom was lights out in his complete game, while Senzatela was pretty damn good himself. A great outing from deGrom was expected and a rare gem from Senzatela was also a possibility.
A disappointing 0-2 Monday sheds 2.22 units from the bankroll and adds to my first-half slide in the MLB. I must say this has been the slowest start to a season (if you can still call it a start) for me betting sides. Run lines were a big boon last season, yet they weigh heavily against this year’s progress. Such is life, and we plug away…
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
In Giolito We Trust: White Sox +133 & White Sox F5 TBD
The Southsiders snagged a 3-1 win yesterday as the Cubs bullpen could not nail down a strong performance from Cole Hamels. Bullpens are a huge factor in the MLB anymore and there are a number of reasons why. Without getting into any theories we must make adjustments to work with or around relief units. Today’s play likely includes a first 5 inning wager in addition to a full-game play. Price may dictate whether the first 5 inning bet is placed.
Neither bullpen is spectacular, though I will give the Cubs’ relievers an edge for current form. Both units are middle of the road when it comes to keeping runners off the base paths. The White Sox have been susceptible to giving up easy runs lately, which is my primary knock against them right now. The Cubs have a decent upper hand when it comes to offense, though this may be less of a factor once we dive into today’s starters.
Disparity Between Starting Pitchers
I’m not willing to go as far to say that the disparity between Lucas Giolito and Jon Lester is as wide as Giolito vs. Sabathia, However, the White Sox’ starter has been consistently on point all season while the Cubs’ veteran started to fade a month ago. Granted, Lester’s path has been more difficult as he’s faced teams like Washington, Philly, and the LA Dodgers recently.
Lester’s last 6 starts have been troubled. In 32 innings pitched, he’s given up 27 earned runs and 9 home runs with a .354 BABIP. Lester has a low 38.2% ground ball rate and a high 20.9% HR/fly ball rate during this recent stretch. Prior to those outings, his first 7 starts had only 5 earned runs and 3 home runs. I think there is a valid case to him having peaked early in the season.
Lucas Giolito continues to be a dominant force on the mound. I detailed his attributes prior to last Friday’s start against the Yankees, though it is worth restating that he’s yielded only 20 earned runs and 5 home runs in 81 innings pitched this year. Considering that his first 3 starts were sub-par, he has hit a groove at this point in the season. He struggles at times with walks but otherwise does well limiting hard contact (30.5%). Giolito also excels at reducing damage from an above-average fly ball rate (40.0%) with only 6.6% of those fly balls resulting as homers.
