Although close doesn’t pay, Friday’s two plays damn near got there but fell short. It cost me 2.16 units and took the week down to 3-4 for -1.02 units though. Either way would have been a loss, but I avoided a Nationals bullpen meltdown by taking the first 5 inning wager on Washington. Unfortunately, their hot offense could not take advantage of a sub-par Nick Margeivicius and lost the F5 bet 1-0.
The Texas Rangers made it interesting in falling to Oakland 5-3. Texas took a 3-2 lead in the 6th, only to have Shelby Miller cough up 1 run in the 7th (which could have been more). With the game tied in the Rangers’ 7th, they load the bases with 1 out…and fail to push any runs through. Forsythe struck out to put Andrus at the dish with 2 outs who just missed a grand slam that would have busted the thing open. LeClerc did his thing and gave up a 2-run homer in the Oakland 9th.
A pair of losses is never appreciated, though I feel that the wagers were well placed. So we move on to a full Saturday MLB slate. I find myself on a couple NL West teams visiting the east with their powerful offenses. Cincinnati was on my radar this morning as a +127 live dog but I remembered Reds Management’s threat of a cease and desist order before confirming my bet. I’ll pass on the Reds and wish them well without me.
Colorado Rockies @ NY Mets
Bring the Lumber: Rockies +103
Fresh off of a 5-1 win last night, the Rockies are riding an 8-2 run in which the only 2 losses were suffered against the Cubs. Jon Gray gets a shot at backing up his 0-run outing against Toronto with another good start against the Mets. He’s gone 2 games without giving up a home run though walks continue to haunt him. Then again, Steven Matz suffers from a similar issue with walks as of late.
These two starters share some similarities in their batted ball outputs. Gray has a 48.9% ground ball rate and 20% HR/fly ball ratio, while Matz has 48.2% and 20.3%, respectively. Home run production can be streaky for offenses and pitchers so the value of recent trends in this department can be weak. Gray has been home run-free in his last 2 starts, while Matz has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts. Gray is typically prone to giving up the long ball and I cannot count on him being this clean for a long stretch.
Gray has not been great on the road this season and has not started on the road since May 22nd. His road woes may continue, though I am skeptical of a meltdown since the Mets bats have cooled off some. They had success against the Giants and their makeshift rotation but have generally had a tough time scraping out wins lately. Colorado has the winning mindset and their offense is executing well. New York’s bullpen has been a mess, as demonstrated again last night. Jon Gray does not inspire a ton of confidence but I will back the Colorado offense and fade the Mets bullpen.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Toronto Blue Jays
Greinke Back on Track: Diamondbacks RL (-1) -135 ML / +120 RL
Despite a couple recent stumbles, Zack Greinke has a great chance to get back on track against the Blue Jays this afternoon. Greinke has given up 1 home run in each of his last 3 starts but generally limits his opponents’ opportunities with a great 1.00 WHIP. Toronto sports the type of offense that he can keep under wraps with an effective array of pitches.
Aaron Sanchez continues to fight finger issues but has pitched well this season despite leaving early in several starts. Walks are a huge liability for him, which can be trouble against this Arizona offense that is efficient when it comes to scoring runs. His 19.5% soft contact rate can frustrate hitters though he consistently gives up runs.
Neither team has much momentum, but I will make the case for Arizona starting to put a run together. They’ve won 2 in a row despite losing 6 of their last 10. 5 of those 6 losses came against the Dodgers and Rockies, who continue to own Arizona. In fact, they are 8 games under .500 in the NL West but have a 32-32 overall record. The Diamondbacks are hitting well and generally have the better bullpen, though it is nowhere near bulletproof. Greinke has a great shot at stifling the sporadic, sluggish Toronto offense today. I’ll mix things up with a manufactured -1 run line to reduce the juice and try to get a small payoff.
