Atlanta/Milwaukee was one hell of a game Wednesday. An early mistake by Keuchel was costly, though the Atlanta offense made sure their club was never out of the game. The Brewers had the “big inning(s)” that I figured would be the difference maker and proved to be the difference in the 5-4 finish. Chase Anderson was very good, though Dallas was not nearly as sharp as his counterpart. A wild finish was not quite enough for the Braves, so my record post-ASB drops to 4-1.
Gotta get out the door quickly this morning, so let’s jump right in…
Oakland A’s @ Minnesota Twins
Playing with Fiers: A’s +128
Are the A’s flying under the radar right now? For most of us handicappers Oakland has been a profitable club at various points this season. The A’s are red hot right now with their 6-game winning streak and 8-2 mark in their last 10 games (2-1 on the road).
Thursday begins a tough 4-game set with AL Central division leader, Minnesota. [Side note: Minnesota’s division lead has shrunk to 4 games over our in-season play Cleveland (+900), proving the 2-1 series win over the Indians out of the break to be crucial.] The Twins just wrapped up a tough short series against the Mets, and are 5-5 in their last 10 games (2-2 at home) and have lost 3 in a row.
Can Fiers Keep it Up?
Mike Fiers hasn’t given up more than 1 earned run or a single home run in any of his 5 starts since June 11. He has been very effective and extremely reliable over the last couple months. Fiers limits opponents’ opportunities (1.11 WHIP) and keeps hard contact to a moderate 38.8% rate. However, tonight he’ll face a lineup full of guys that can deliver hard contact.
Typically, a low-ish ground ball rate like Fiers’ 38.9% would be a concern against a home run-hitting club like the Twins, but he’s done very well keeping fly balls in the park (10.5% HR/FB). On the flip side, Oakland’s park is very pitcher-friendly and may play a significant factor in that. For those that rely on xFIP in their handicapping, his 3.61 ERA/5.37 xFIP discrepancy could raise a red flag. I think that his low strikeout rate may have a lot to do with it but it does not concern me. Fiers and his usual 6+ innings of quality pitching are a key reason for the A’s chasing down the Astros in the AL West.
Minnesota’s use of Kyle Gibson lately is a mystery. He’s been brought in to open a game and do some short work as well as play the role of starter. His last outing at Cleveland was not good, though he’s had plenty of high points in 2019. Gibson’s up-and-down season features a solid 8-4 record with a 4.03 ERA.
Gibson has a good 48.6% ground ball rate and great 36.0% hard contact rate. The .301 is problematic at this point in the season, especially with a 18.9% HR/fly ball ratio. His inconsistency makes it tough to handicap his potential tonight. Kyle’s metrics are considerably better at home vs. on the road, though his last 2 actual home starts in June did not go well (11.1 IP, 10 ER).
These two squared off on July 3rd in Oakland. Both guys went a full 6 innings and pitched very well. Fiers yielded 1 earned run and 5 hits, while Gibson gave up 2 earned runs on 5 hits. There’s a good chance these guys could repeat those performances in this one.
Team Trajectories
The A’s are red hot and look to extend their 6-game winning streak, though the scenery changes as they hit the road. The Twins may not be playing their best ball but cannot be overlooked as a legitimate powerhouse. Minnesota’s offense is still quite productive, despite scoring more than 4 runs only twice in their last 6 games. Run-scoring efficiency is a big part of this “drop-off” (by their standards).
Oakland has posted 5 straight games giving up 2 runs or less, though this came against the Mariners and White Sox who aren’t scaring a lot of people at the plate right now. Their offensive production and efficiency is well above their season-long figures, and the bullpen is currently in lock-down mode. I’d be willing to argue that they have the best-performing relief unit in the league right now. Minnesota’s bullpen is also doing well, notwithstanding yesterday’s meltdown against the Mets.
This game comes down to how effective Kyle Gibson is. If he duels with Fiers, then the Twins have the upper hand in game 1 of the series. If not, look for the A’s to continue their winning ways. Even without Chapman in the lineup, I think that Oakland +128 is good value on a team that is in a groove with a very reliable starter taking the mound.
