Previous Week Plays – 3-1
Season Record – 37-28
Week 15 Recap:
For the second week in a row the BetCrushers entered the Monday Night Football contest with a chance for a perfect weekend, and for the second week in a row we fell short. Just as in the week before, we’ll always take a 3-1 winning weekend, improving our season mark to 37-28, but we’re still yet to have a clean sweep. Even though consistency is truly more important, it would really feel good to have an undefeated weekend somewhere along the way. As far as the recap, we started with another Thursday Night Football winner, with the Chiefs pulling out an OT win against the Chargers in the big AFC West showdown. That game truly could have ended either way, so we’ll count that one as a fortunate cover, that maybe evens out some of the bad beats of our career. We had a fairly solid cover with the Colts as they played a tight contest with the Patriots, and ultimately out-bullied the bully, as we expected. The 49ers and Falcons game went exactly according to plan as they simply outclassed the lesser talented Atlanta team. That takes us up to Monday Night Football, a game where we had a good line of over 23.5 points for the Minnesota Vikings, a team that has routinely bested that total. With the Bears missing their entire secondary this seemed like it would have an extremely high percentage of closing. We still believe it was the correct side and would have gotten there more often than not, but the Bears continually shot themselves in the foot, resulting in a lack of points. As a result, the Vikings took their foot off the gas and ran the ball for a large portion of the third and fourth quarters. Needing just a TD with a quarter and a half to play seemed like it would hit, but maybe that’s the payback for the Chiefs bet that did cover?
Week 16 Picks:
We discussed in our recap of week 15, and it’s worth repeating. Handicapping games is extremely challenging with the ever fluid landscape of players finding themselves on the reserve/Covid-19 list. Grabbing early lines for closing line value can be tricky, as the constant major line swings can make or break you. Of course there are middling opportunities for the savvy bettors out there, but overall things are just not as straightforward as they traditionally have been. A perfect example for the BetCrushers is the contest between the Steelers and Chiefs, a game that we had a very strong lean towards. However, the uncertainty with the rosters makes this game at least a temporary pass for us. We tried to key in as best we can with the ever-changing scope and settled on 6 total plays for the week. In a little bit of an audible for use, we actually have 4 wagers against the spread to go along with one teaser bet and doubled up with a team total in one of the contests. We may add some things later in the week so follow us on Twitter for any additional and official posted plays,
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
vs. 
Baltimore Ravens (8-6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Sunday December 26th
1:00pm
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
One of two games in the AFC with teams facing off for first place features the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals put a surprising beatdown on the Ravens in their first matchup of the season, and are looking to sweep the season series. After a fast start for Baltimore, the team has slumped in recent weeks as Lamar Jackson has both cooled off, and missed time with a lingering ankle injury.
Although quarterback Lamar Jackson is still listed as questionable to play on Sunday, signs are pointing to another start for backup Tyler Huntley. That proposition doesn’t seem nearly as bleak as it may have a few weeks ago, as Huntley has played really well in leading the Ravens both throwing and running. He’ll have his work cut out for him against a Bengals defense that seems to be gelling at just the right time. Even with some key injuries to Logan Wilson and Chidobe Awuzie, the Bengals have the depth to sustain against the Ravens as long as they can slow down the run. D.J. Reader and Larry Ogunjobi have done a nice job of that all season and it’s tough to see Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray being able to get things going behind their offensive line. That’s going to make things tough on Huntley as he’ll have to pick up the slack with the running, and really be on the money in the passing game. He’ll have a lot of targets headed towards stud tight end Mark Andrews, who he has wisely leaned on during his starts. Baltimore really needs to take some shots deep in this game to try to break some big plays and also keep pace in what could be high scoring on the other side.
Speaking of the other side, if you put any stock in PFF grading, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is the top rated passer in the entire league. If Burrow has a big day on Sunday this game could actually end up getting out of hand. There really isn’t much reason why Burrow won’t have a big day when you look at the depleted Ravens secondary. When these two teams played the first time, Burrow had his best passing day of the year, and that was with Marlon Humphrey, DeShon Elliott and Jimmy Smith in the lineup. All three will be out in this contest, as will safety Chuck Clark and backups Chris Westry and Geno Stone. That’s not good no matter who you’re facing, but when you’ve got to line up against the trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd it’s really daunting. If the Bengals can get anything at all going with the running game, this offense will be completely unstoppable on Sunday. The Ravens front seven has to play lights out to aid the thin secondary and force Burrow to throw early and potentially make mistakes. Although the Bengals offensive line has been better than a season ago, they’re still vulnerable against physical and fast fronts.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Ravens are 2-4 straight up in their last 6 games
– The Bengals are 11-5 straight up against the Ravens in their last 16 home games
– 81% of wagers are on the Baltimore Ravens
Normally we’d be pretty hesitant in taking the Cincinnati Bengals to sweep a team like John Harbaugh’s Ravens in a high pressure game. This Bengals team is really developing however, and as admirably as Harbaugh has held his team together through big injuries, this is just asking too much. The Bengals beat up the Ravens in their first meeting because they match up really well against this Ravens team, and as we mentioned above, Baltimore is even thinner than they were in the first meeting. For as well as Tyler Huntley has played, asking him to get into a potential shootout with Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense just seems like it’s a little too much. Even if Lamar Jackson were to get back on the field, this game has Cincinnati written all over it. The recency bias of previous seasons is probably the only thing keeping this spread as low as it is. If the Bengals want to be taken seriously, a convincing win and retaining first place in the division is a great place to start
BetCrushers Take: Cincinnati Bengals -3 / Cincinnati Bengals – Team Total Over 24
Bengals 30, Ravens 22
Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
Indianapolis Colts (8-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-4)
Saturday December 25th
8:15pm
NFL Network
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Arizona Cardinals -1 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
A tale of two teams heading in opposite directions as the Indianapolis Colts travel west to face the Arizona Cardinals. After a slow start to the season, the Colts are looking as tough as any team in the league behind a seemingly unstoppable Jonathan Taylor and an opportunistic defense. The Cardinals on the other hand have lost two straight games as well as what seemed like a solid grip on the NFC west title. Can the Colts keep climbing in the AFC standings, or will the Cardinals get a rare good home performance to get back on track in the NFC?
There isn’t a lot of variability in breaking down the offense of the Indianapolis Colts. This team wants to establish the run, and make timely throws to win football games. The game script in this game will really determine if Indy can stick to that game plan, or if they’ll need to be involved in more of a shootout. In simple terms, the Cardinals best defense in this game is really to have great offensive play. The Colts have a clear advantage in the trenches here, as they do against most teams. Jordan Phillips will miss this game for the Cardinals, which thins out their defensive line rotation. That’s a problem when trying to slow down Jonathan Taylor. Strong Safety Jalen Johnson will have to spend a lot of time in the box, which means Carson Wentz should have some one-on-one matchups on the outside against the susceptible cornerbacks of the Cards. Although he hasn’t exactly lit it up since returning from injury, T.Y. Hilton has provided this Colts passing game with an extra weapon opposite of Michael Pittman, Jr. With some potential single coverage from Marco Wilson, Hilton could have a turn back the clock performance if Wentz can connect with him. As always, Carson Wentz is a wild card, as his ability or inability to protect the football can be a key to the team’s overall performance.
After an explosive start to the season, the Cardinals offense has been inconsistent, at best over the past month of the season. There’s no question the injury to DeAndre Hopkins has been a big factor, however it certainly seems to be much bigger than that. Christian Kirk has largely gone quiet for big stretches, and rookie Rondale Moore who was dynamic the first month of the season, has been a non-factor since. Kirk and Moore (who is questionable) are big play threats, but in this game, the Cardinals need to really focus on sustaining drives and offense. They do have the luxury of veteran A.J. Green who can help move the chains and make big catches in single coverage. The Colts defense has some big time stars, including three recently named Pro Bowlers, however they do give up points and plays. Assuming they can do an adequate job against the pass, it may come down to how well the Cardinals can run the football. They’ll be without veteran center Rodney Hudson, which puts a lot of pressure on the banged up Max Garcia to hold his own against DeForest Buckner and the Colts defensive interior. It’s by no means an incapable Cardinals offense running or throwing, but this is one of those games where Kyler Murray is really going to have to be special. If Murray doesn’t finish this game with 50+ yards rushing, there’s a good chance the Cardinals losing streak continues.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
– The Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
– The Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games
There’s a lot of sharp sentiment and money believing that the Arizona Cardinals will get back on track as the Colts will have a small setback on the road. We’re going against the sharp money here and playing the square dog as these teams are headed in opposite directions. The matchup isn’t great for the Cardinals, and they’ve actually been really bad playing at home this season. There are a lot of similarities in this game to the SF/TEN matchup we watched on Thursday Night Football, where the 49ers didn’t get it done. We believe the Colts will get this one done as long as Carson Wentz takes care of the football. Yes, that’s a big if, we know.
BetCrushers Take: Indianapolis Colts +1
Colts 27, Cardinals 24
Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
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Los Angeles Rams (10-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
Sunday December 26th
1:00pm
CBS
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under 49 (-110)
The Los Angeles Rams leave the comfort of their dome for what should be an exciting battle in the home of the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are coming off of prime-time important victories as each is fighting for a spot in the crowded NFC playoff race. A victory for the Rams could help them in their division, while the Vikings need to stay ahead of a couple of teams hot on their heels for a wild card spot.
Where would the Los Angeles Rams offense be this season without Cooper Kupp? You can guarantee they wouldn’t want to find out as Kupp has been playing out of his mind in his first season with Matthew Stafford. He’ll have a familiar matchup against Patrick Peterson on Sunday as he takes aim at some NFL receiving records. We’re going to go ahead and chalk him up for 100 yards and a score at minimum in this game, and basically state that the outcome of this game will come down to the other players on the field. That’s of course not to suggest that he may not go for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Mike Zimmer generally subscribes to the Bill Belichick mantra of not letting the other team’s top weapon beat him. Fortunately for the Rams, they have other options to attack the Minnesota defense. Let’s start with their running game as they now will have a three-headed backfield as Cam Akers is off of IR, joining Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson. The Vikings have allowed over 4.7 yards per carry, so it will be interesting to see if Sean McVay elects to attack them on the ground early. The matchup that the Rams really have to like is new weapon Odell Beckham, Jr. if they can get him singled up against cornerback Cameron Dantzler. If you enjoy the chess matches of a football game, watch the calls at the line from Matthew Stafford and the alignments of safety Harrison Smith. These two also know each other well, and you can bet that Smith will be looking for a turnover against his familiar foe.
The Vikings received some coal in their stocking when they received news that star running back Dalvin Cook was added to the reserve/Covid-19 list on Thursday. It’s no secret that the Vikings offense starts with the running game, and when this team is clicking, it’s running the ball well. There are two things working in their favor though, the first being that they have one of the more capable backups with Alexander Mattison filling in. The second is, the way to attack the Rams is really through the passing game anyhow, so the team may be more likely to air it out without the services of Cook. You could also argue that it gives the Vikings the opportunity to get speedster Kene Nwangwu into the game as well. If you haven’t seen this guy play, he’s an absolute bolt of lightning when he’s got the football in his hand. As we stated, realistically though, the Vikings are going to have to throw a lot to win this game. That starts with Kirk Cousins making good decisions and taking care of the football. He’s done a pretty darn good job of that this season, but everyone knows he can make mistakes against top defenses when he’s under pressure. The Rams can generate pressure, and how the Vikings offensive line responds to their star rushers will be absolutely critical in this game. Minnesota is hopeful they’ll have reliable pass catcher Adam Thielen back for this one, and that would be huge as the receiver opposite of Jalen Ramsey needs to make plays. Another key potential contributor for the Vikings is tight end Tyler Conklin, who could be a quiet piece to the offensive puzzle with a lot of attention devoted to Justin Jefferson.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. the Vikings
– The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
Out of these two teams, it’s actually the Rams that are a little harder to figure out. Or at least a little tougher to predict how they’re going to perform each week. They’re clearly a good football team, but something just isn’t completely clicking for them on offense. They do actually have a nice matchup on both sides of the football in this game, but the Vikings have played close in every game this season. We’ll take the hook at the key number and hope that Minnesota can hold up on defense, and Kirk Cousins isn’t rattled by the Rams pressure. The Rams probably win this game, but the Vikings keep it tight.
BetCrushers Take: Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Rams 26, Vikings 23
Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints
vs. 
Miami Dolphins (7-7) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-7)
Monday December 27th
8:15pm
ESPN
Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Miami Dolphins -1 (-110)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
Just another game with the odds stacked against them for the New Orleans Saints in their Monday Night Football game against the Miami Dolphins. It appears the team will be without quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian in a must win game due to the ugly COVID monster. The Dolphins are hoping things are continuing to fall into place as they look to extend the league’s longest winning streak. This is a virtual playoff game for both teams, with the winner still in the hunt, and the loser likely going home.
A slow start a week ago against the New York Jets was about all that’s gone wrong for the Miami Dolphins offense during their 6 game win streak. Not only has quarterback Tua Tagavailoa played well, the team has also found some success running the football. Veteran running back Duke Johnson joined the team and promptly had a 100 yard game and scored twice. Johnson and Myles Gaskin will have a stiffer challenge against the Saints defense as they lead the league with a 3.8 yards per carry mark. It’s highly unlikely that the Dolphins will be able to get much going with the running game, which means this is a true test for Tua Tagavailoa in a must have game. Even though we’re not counting on Miami running, their offensive line is still key here as they need to give Tua time to throw and a clean pocket. The Dolphins run a pretty simple passing game, but one that could find success against the aggressive Saints secondary. Jaylen Waddle’s return from missing last week should help bolster that passing game by allowing Miami to spread the ball around to multiple receivers. The key for Miami on offense is absolute ball security as they cannot give the Saints short fields or extra possessions.
Since the season ending injury to quarterback Jameis Winston, the Saints offense has been one of the more plodding units in the league. The unit takes another hit this week we think, as it looks like rookie quarterback Ian Book will get his first career start. It’s always tough to know how a rookie is going to perform, but the positive news for Saints fans is at least there’s really no film on him. The not so encouraging piece is that he’s facing a Dolphins defense that has played really well during their win streak, and has a pair of corners that are really good at taking the ball away. Sean Payton should return and he’ll have a big assignment in working up a game plan that helps his young quarterback, and puts the burden of carrying the team on running back Alvin Kamara. The challenge Payton will have is that the Dolphins are likely to play man coverage and trust their corners against the very pedestrian receivers for New Orleans. That means extra help and attention to slowing down Kamara and the running game, as well as Kamara as a receiver. Another problem could be the continued absence of star tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, which presents a problem against Christian Wilkins and rookie Jaelan Phillps, both of whom have stepped it up in recent weeks. If Kamara can’t make some big plays happen, there is going to be a lot of pressure on Ian Book, and that’s not what a quarterback making his first start needs.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
Hopefully you were able to grab the Miami Dolphins at +3 before the Covid news hit for the New Orleans Saints. Even if not, the line movement seems to still work in Miami’s benefit as we felt they were worthy of a moneyline win sprinkle anyhow. Quality teams like the Saints will step up for a backup quarterback, so don’t be shocked if this game is low scoring, and close in the first half. Ultimately, the Dolphins defense should be able to make some plays and their offense will do enough to grind out a tough win and keep their playoff hopes alive. Unless Ian Book is the real deal?
BetCrushers Take: Miami Dolphins -1
Dolphins 20, Saints 16
Teaser Bet
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
vs. 
and 
vs. 
Cleveland Browns (7-7) vs. Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Saturday December 25th
4:15pm
FOX / NFL Network
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Buffalo Bills (8-6) vs. New England Patriots (9-5)
Sunday December 26th
1:00pm
CBS
Gillette Stadium – Foxboro, MA
New England Patriots -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
After a week off of teaser bets, we’re heading back to our cash cow teasing one team up and one team down with some perfect numbers. The Buffalo Bills are seeking a different result in their 2nd meeting in three weeks with the Patriots, while the Packers want to keep their momentum and seeding rolling against a deflated Browns squad. Top quarterbacks Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers should have the advantage against Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield, however will that be enough to secure a win or cover?
The Cleveland Browns should have some players back after their COVID outbreak basically cost them a game against the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday. They’ve got a quick turnaround in what is basically a game to save their season and their starting quarterback Baker Mayfield should get the start. Mayfield has not been great this season, and a game at Lambeau isn’t necessarily good for what ails him. The Browns as we know, can however run the football. You can really make this as simple as you need, in that Cleveland has to overpower the Packers running to win this game. The availability of their offensive linemen is still a question mark, and it’s shown in the team’s slowed running attack in recent weeks. If Nick Chubb and company can move the ball, the Browns can stay in this game. If they can’t the Packers have a good shot at covering the 7.5 spread. On the Green Bay side of the ball, the team will be missing Marquez Valdez-Scantling, who was coming off his best game of the season last week. Somehow it just doesn’t matter with Aaron Rodgers though, as he seems to just find ways to win with whatever pieces are around him. Perhaps the biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball for Green Bay is the fact that they will be without their top three offensive tackles, which could expose Rodgers if they’re not careful against the likes of Myles Garrett and company. The Browns have been pretty solid against the run, so it’ll be a slugfest as they try to contain the duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
The rematch of the Bills and Patriots on paper looks as though it should be similar to their first meeting. You can expect that the weather will be a little better, which means you can also expect Mac Jones to throw the ball more than three times. The Bills will want to try to make this game a shootout, which is easier said than done against the New England defense. Add in the fact that Cole Beasley will miss the contest, and Josh Allen could find himself under a lot of pressure again without his security blanket. Tight end Dawson Knox has stepped up in that role this season, but the Patriots are the best team in the league at taking away opposing tight ends. A player to watch is Isaiah McKenzie, who will take some of the snaps Beasley would normally get. He’s an elusive player that can be a bit of a boom or bust type of weapon. The Bills could also be challenged if left tackle Dion Dawkins does not come off of the Covid list, something that is a question mark at this time. At the end of the day, for the Bills, Josh Allen is going to have to put this team on his back and will them to a victory. The Patriots offensive game plan will be a lot like it is every week, and was against Buffalo in their first meeting. They want to punch them in the mouth with their physical offensive line and attack them with Damien Harris, and Rhamondre Stevenson. (Stevenson is questionable). They’ll need to establish that running game as they are also banged up at the receiver position. Kendrick Bourne won’t be playing, and Nelson Agholor looks like he’s a long shot to suit up as well. Look for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to work tight ends Hunter Henry and Johnnu Smith even more into the scheme in a lot of two tight end sets. In the first meeting, the Patriots didn’t need Mac Jones to make any plays, however they’re going to need him to contribute if they want to sweep the Bills and reclaim the AFC East.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Browns are 2-5 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Packers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games
– The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December
– The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
If you’ve followed the BetCrushers at all, you know that we love betting on Aaron Rodgers when he plays at Lambeau Field. In this case, even though we’d still lean to -7.5, the number is just right for a teaser bet, as it seems almost downright impossible that the Browns would win this game. We’ll match that up with a Bills team that has a legitimate shot to win in New England, and even if they lose, should at least make it a really close game. When the numbers are right and you’ve got the better quarterbacks, it becomes basically analytical at that point.
